Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 07 April 2015
.. Much Warmer Temperatures ..
.. Weak Cold Front Due Friday ..
.. Better Rain Chances Thursday into Friday and Continuing Through the Weekend ..
.. Another Cold Front Due on Monday ..
On this Tuesday…. a low pressure area is over central Kansas with a stationary front extending westward from Missouri through the low and into Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southward from the Kansas low through west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Surface high pressure is off the eastern seaboard of the USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a mostly zonal (west-to-east) upper air wind flow exists over the USA with a north to south oriented trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure along the northern California coast. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.
Warmer.. more humid southerly surface wind flow continues across the area.
An approaching upper air low pressure disturbance combined with a southeastward moving weakening cold front and increasing low level moisture and atmospheric instability to give us better rain and thunderstorm chances as early as tomorrow night with the best chances Thursday and Friday through the weekend. There appears, according to the NWS Storm Prediction Center, to be at least a slim risk of severe thunderstorms with a hail/strong thunderstorm wind risk locally on Thursday again on Saturday. The latest NWS national rainfall guidance suggests upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rain from this weather system late week through the weekend.
Another cold front is due early Monday which will keep precipitation chances early into the new week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high today through tomorrow. My confidence falls back to medium late tomorrow night through Thursday and Friday and the weekend with frontal timing, precipitation timing and amounts as well as the severe thunderstorm risk being issues. My forecast confidence is medium to high for the early part of next week with frontal timing, precipitation probabilities and amounts being the issues.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel