Updated 915am CT – Monday / 30 March 2015
.. Upper Level Low Pressure Disturbance Headed Our Way ..
.. Better Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Tuesday into Wednesday ..
.. A Cold Front Moves Through Friday with an Overrunning Pattern for the Weekend ..
On this Monday…. a weakening stationary front extends from central Mississippi westward across the Arkansas/Louisiana border and into north central Texas then southwestward into far southwest Texas and northern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is situated over the east coast of the USA. A strong upper air low pressure disturbance is several hundred miles west of the Baja Peninsula over the Pacific Ocean. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly at 15 to 25 mph.
We’re now headed into some weather changes as we head into the new week as the approaching upper air low pressure disturbance, out over the Pacific Ocean, combines with return gulf moisture.
With increased clouds and even a few sprinkles or rain showers today and tonight into Tuesday.. we’ll see an even better chance of thunderstorms tomorrow night through Wednesday. Latest NWS Storm Prediction Center guidance suggests a few strong
thunderstorms are possible in areas well west of the IH35 corridor by tomorrow into tomorrow night.
The mid week round of rain showers and thunderstorms will produce upwards of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain. Rain chances will decrease by Wednesday night with a mostly sunny sky and warmer temperatures returning Thursday.
A stronger cold front will cross the area on Friday by midday into early afternoon with relatively slim rain chances Friday.. Friday night and into and through our upcoming weekend as a Cooler than average and wet overrunning weather pattern becomes established across our area.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high over the next few days with precipitation timing and amounts being a little uncertain right now. My confidence goes back to very high on Thursday before falling back to medium to high for Friday and through next weekend with the associated cold front and forecast overrunning pattern.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel