Updated 915am CT – Friday / 13 March 2015
.. Clouds and Some Morning Fog Linger ..
.. A Somewhat More Stable Air Mass with More Sun and Warmer Temperatures ..
.. Rain Chances and Amounts Increase for Next Week ..
On this Friday morning…. a low pressure area is over east Texas and western Louisiana with a weakening stationary front extends northeastward into the Ohio Valley region and a cold front extending southward through southern Louisiana into the central Gulf of Mexico. High pressure is located from the intermountain west and the Great Salt Lake southeastward into Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are north northwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a developing trough over the central USA extends southward from the northern plains and upper Mississippi Valley south southwestward into Texas and northern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are variable southwesterly at 15 to 25 mph.
With the pesky upper level low pressure disturbance still holding through Texas and Mexico, we’ve seen again overnight a few light rain showers east of the IH35 corridor as well as some fog and low clouds lingering back over our area. Clouds are breaking at mid morning with partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures expected in the coming few days.. in other words, through the weekend.
That being said, however, I’m growing weary with the fact that this upper level low is hanging back over Texas more than I expected, and, as a result, I will introduce morning fog (given the cooling of the morning along with the fairly damp ground) over the next few days and would not be surprised at all if a few sprinkles develop over the weekend.
Beyond the weekend, this upper air disturbance will combine with a southward moving cold front to contribute to increased clouds and another increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms by the middle part of next week. Latest manual and computer guidance is really going up on the rain chances and although the latest NWS forecast rainfall amounts locally are showing around 1/2 inch, I would be surprised if those amounts increased as we advance in the forecast.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through the weekend and into Monday with my forecast confidence falling back to medium for the middle to latter part of next week. In both cases, the questions will be the potential for rain as well as precipitation timing and amounts.
Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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