Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 03 March 2015
… Warmer Temperatures Today and Tonight …
… Another Arctic Cold Front Due Tomorrow …
… Another Round of Wintry Precipitation Wednesday Night into Thursday …
On this Tuesday morning…. a stationary front extends southwestward from south central Louisiana to along the Texas coast then inland into northeastern Mexico. Another developing low pressure storm system is located over Nebraska.. Kansas and Colorado with an advancing arctic cold front from Minnesota south and westward into northern Colorado then northwestward into Idaho. Temperatures behind the front have fallen below zero across eastern Montana. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a deep upper level low pressure area extends southward through California and into a strong upper air disturbance located offshore southwest of San Diego, CA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 50 to 60 mph.
The center of the chilly surface high pressure area that has been present over the area the last few days is departing our area to the east now as a developing low pressure storm system gets it act together over the central plains states. As it moves eastward, I expect south southeasterly winds to return, on the backside of the clockwise rotating high pressure area, today into tonight and early Wednesday with a slow warming trend expected. Clouds are likely to linger along with a little better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms especially tonight into Wednesday. The best chance of thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk looks to be tonight and Wednesday morning before a strong arctic cold front arrives by mid and late morning.
With the passage of the arctic cold front Wednesday morning into midday, there will be a rapid drop in temperatures with morning temperatures in the 50s to near 60 falling quickly into the 30s in the afternoon and into the 30s by the evening rush hour. An overrunning pattern will persist on top of the advancing shallow layer of arctic air with light precipitation likely Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night with precipitation tapering off a bit during the day Thursday. It is likely, given the latest forecast guidance, that parts of our south central Texas area could see freezing/frozen wintry precipitation Wednesday night into midday Thursday with possible ice accumulations and associated hazardous driving conditions. All local interests should stay in close touch with the latest weather information from the National Weather Service over the coming day or so.
It appears that the overrunning pattern, even with some breaks in the clouds late Thursday into Thursday night and Friday, will linger late week into next weekend as temperatures only slowly warm just as we saw this past weekend.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high today through the remainder of the week and through the upcoming weekend as it regards the basic weather pattern and precipitation occurrence, timing and amounts. I have low to medium confidence of some type of freezing/frozen precipitation late Wednesday through Thursday.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel