Updated 845am CT – Friday / 30 May 2014
…. Upper Level Low Spins over Southern Arkansas Shifts Slowly West Southwestward ….
…. A Slightly Better Rain Chance on the Way into Saturday ….
…. A Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern by Sunday into Next Week ….
On this Friday morning…. a weak surface low pressure area is rotating counterclockwise over northwestern Louisiana with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward into southwestern Louisiana and the northwest Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong counterclockwise rotating low pressure area is over southwestern Arkansas. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northwesterly 18 to 28 mph.
The upper level and surface low pressure area.. responsible for the rains last weekend into early this week and currently over Arkansas.. will weaken over the next 24 hours as it shifts back west southwestward into east Texas.
As a result, we’ll see more cloudiness and a more unstable atmosphere today through tomorrow. We’ll see an slight increase in the rain chances for the time period with rainfall amounts generally remaining… based on the current NWS rainfall forecast amount guidance.. below 1/2 inch. No severe weather is anticipated although thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and, of course, frequent deadly cloud-to-ground lightning.
As the system continues to dissipate and weaken, our atmosphere will again become more stable by Sunday through much of next week with rain chances disappearing from the forecast with decreased cloudiness as well. As the clouds decrease a bit, I expect near average temperatures for the area for much of next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through tomorrow night (some uncertainty about timing of precipitation as well as exact rainfall amounts) and then very high for Sunday through much of next week.
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A reminder that the Atlantic Ocean basin hurricane season starts this coming Sunday (1 June). Here is a list of the tropical cyclone names, as assigned by the World Meteorological Organization, to be used this coming season in the Atlantic Ocean basin…
Arthur.. Bertha.. Cristobal.. Dolly.. Edouard.. Fay.. Gonzalo.. Hanna.. Isaias.. Josephine.. Kyle.. Laura.. Marco.. Nana.. Omar.. Paulette.. Rene.. Sally.. Teddy.. Vicky.. and Wilfred..
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Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel