Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 18 September 2013
…. Slim Thunderstorm Chances Continue Today into Tonight ….
…. Cold Front to Move Into Texas with Better Rain Chances Tomorrow into Friday ….
…. Watching the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Development ….
On this Wednesday morning…. a weakening stationary front extends westward from northern Florida into southeastern Louisiana then northwestward as a warm front into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico and southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are southeasterly over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level high pressure area is over southeastern Louisiana and the northern Gulf of Mexico. A eastward moving trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends south southeastward from the eastern parts of the Pacific northwest and western Intermountain west. As a result, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southerly 10 to 20 mph.
Abundant atmospheric moisture continues over the area and will combine with daytime heating and atmospheric instability to produce at least widely scattered rain shower and thunderstorm development today into tonight. A partly cloudy to mostly cloudy sky will prevail locally.
By late tomorrow into tomorrow night and through Friday into early Saturday, a cold front will move southward into northwest Texas and this front, unlike a couple of the these fronts we’ve seen lately, will have enough upper air support given the upper air trough over the northwest USA, to bring the front through the local area around or just after sunrise on Saturday. Ahead of and along the front, increased rain showers and thunderstorm chances will affect the area beginning late tomorrow and continuing Friday into early Saturday. Latest guidance suggests upward of 1 to 1 1/2 inches of rain may fall over our area with this storm system and cold front.
A more stable weather pattern will develop in the wake of the cold front early Saturday with partial clearing, slightly cooler and a bit drier air moving into the area later in the day Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday.
I am watching the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for likely tropical cyclone development over the next few days. There’s much uncertainty regarding the future movement of the system.. particularly considering the advancing cold front due across Texas Friday into Saturday. I will continue to monitor.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel