Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 17 September 2013
…. Slim Thunderstorm Chances Continue Over the Next Few Days ….
…. Weak Cold Front to Move Into Texas with Better Rain Chances Friday ….
…. Watching the Southern Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Development ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a weak cold front extends westward from southern Georgia into southern Louisiana then turns stationary and extends back northwestward into north central Texas and then back into eastern Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are easterly over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level high pressure area extends from east Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Being on the west side of the upper air high, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southerly 10 to 20 mph.
Abundant atmospheric moisture will continue over the coming days and combine with daytime heating and atmospheric instability to produce at least widely scattered rain shower and thunderstorm development. A partly cloudy to mostly cloudy sky will prevail locally.
By later in the week, a cold front will move southward into northwest Texas and this front, unlike a couple of the these fronts we’ve seen lately, will have enough upper air support, through a passing upper level low pressure area, to bring the front through the local area around or just after sunrise on Saturday. Ahead of and along the front, increased rain showers and thunderstorm chances will affect the area Friday into early Saturday. Latest guidance suggests upward of 1 to 1 1/2 inches of rain may fall over our area with this storm system and cold front.
I think we’ll see a more stable weather pattern in the wake of the front later in the day Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday. Based on current guidance, I expect a partly cloudy sky with northeasterly surface winds and temperatures down only a few degrees.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel