Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 5 September 2013
…. Slim Thunderstorm Chances Linger for Afternoon into Evening Hours ….
…. An Otherwise Typical Late Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….
On this Thursday morning…. surface high pressure continues over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as well as the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from Georgia into Alabama and Mississippi and then into eastern and central Texas. Another high pressure area is to our distant west over the southwestern Colorado and the four corners region. A low pressure area is over western Kansas with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level high pressure area has settled northward a bit into north and northeastern Colorado. Being just on the southeast side of the upper air high, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are easterly 15 to 25 mph.
Lingering atmospheric moisture and a weak disturbance aloft today will combine with daytime heating for isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days.. primarily in the afternoon into evening hours. Much as we saw in parts of the Austin area last evening, frequent cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds may accompany the thunderstorms.
Other than the slim precipitation chances, I expect that the upper level high pressure area will continue to dominate our weather with a fair amount of sunshine over the coming days with continued above average temperatures.
By late in the weekend into next week, it looks like a slightly more moist and unstable air mass will take hold with temperatures falling to more average levels. We’ll also need to watch for increasing rain chances, as well, by late in the weekend into early next week.
According to meteorologists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center, there are a few systems over the Atlantic Ocean basin.. including a disturbance over the Bay of Campeche. The system over the Bay of Campeche may become better organized as it moves ashore by tomorrow on the east coast of Mexico. Tropical storm Gabrielle.. off the west coast of Puerto Rico.. will move northwestward into the southwest North Atlantic.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence over the next seven days.
Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel