Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 3 September 2013

…. Slim Thunderstorm Chances This Afternoon into this Evening ….
…. An Otherwise Dry Late Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….

On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure continues over the eastern Gulf of Mexico as well as the western Atlantic Ocean. A weakening cold front extends southwestward from the Appalachians into northern Louisiana and east Texas. Another high pressure area is to our distant west over the southwestern Colorado and the four corners region. A low pressure area is over southeastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level high pressure area has settled back westward into New Mexico and Colorado. Being just on the southeast side of the upper air high, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are easterly 10 to 18 mph.

Lingering atmospheric moisture today will combine with daytime heating for isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early tonight for our local area.

Once we get past today and tonight and continuing through the rest of the week and through next weekend, I expect that the upper level high pressure area will dominate our weather. I expect plenty of sunshine over the coming days with continued above average temperatures.

According to meteorologists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center, there are three systems over the Atlantic Ocean basin.. including a disturbance over the Yucatan Peninsula. At this point, probabilities are low for short term development.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence over the next seven day forecast period.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel