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by troyk | on Jan 16, 2018 | Comments Off

…. 345pm Weather Update (Final Update) ….

…. Some Icing Problems Continue Over The Area …. Use Caution ….
…. Little If Any Additional Precipitation Expected ….

As the upper air low pressure disturbance, as expected, continues to move eastward, we’re seeing precipitation continue to move eastward.. now well out of the IH35 corridor counties. A very light snow flurry or two is possible later this afternoon, but otherwise,
little of any precipitation is expected. As a result, this is my final statement on this winter weather event.

Keep in mind, though, hazardous/dangerous conditions continue to be reported in some areas; there are still some bridges/overpasses and flyovers on Austin and south central Texas area roadways with patchy residual ice. Some of these are closed. On behalf of our law enforcement and fire responder partners, I continue to ask that you not be out unless
absolutely necessary.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has replaced the WINTER STORM WARNING  and is in effect for our IH35 counties until 9pm tonight. Even though little if any additional precipitation is expected, those icy spots will continue through the evening and overnight hours into the first half of the day tomorrow when temperatures will finally get back above freezing by 12 noon tomorrow.

This is my final update on this winter weather event.

tk

…. 1200 noon Weather Update ….

…. Some Icing Problems Continue Over The Area …. Use Caution ….
…. Precipitation Chances Decreasing ….

Well, it did not get that much worse with the mid and late morning precipitation due to the dryness of the lower parts of the atmosphere. That’s the good news.. the bad news is that some bridges/overpasses/flyovers continue icy with icy spots on less traveled surface roadways and sidewalks as well. NWS Doppler weather radar still indicates a few patches of sleet, light freezing rain and light snow across the area. However, the radar trend
has been on decreasing trend and I am thinking that the precipitation will be tapering off northwest to southeast mainly as light sleet and light flurries over the next few hours with little additional accumulation for our Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor counties (Hays, Williamson and Travis).

At 1200 noon… hazardous/dangerous conditions continue to be reported in some areas; there are still some bridges/overpasses and flyovers on Austin area roadways are being described as icy by area law enforcement officials. Some of these are closed. On behalf of our law enforcement and fire responder partners, I continue to ask you NOT to be on the roadways unless absolutely necessary.

Some of the weather conditions/temperatures at 12 noon across the IH35 corridor:
Austin Bergstrom International Airport…. Cloudy w/light ice pellets (sleet)…. 26 F
Austin Camp Mabry…. Cloudy…. 27 F
Austin Great Hills NWS Coop Station…. Cloudy…. 25 F
Austin Executive Airport (Along SH130 / Pflugerville)…. Cloudy…. 25 F
Georgetown Airport…. Cloudy…. 26 F
Lago Vista Airport…. Cloudy…. 25 F
San Marcos Airport…. Cloudy…. 26 F

A reminder… A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6PM TONIGHT… a few periods of  light sleet and snow flurries possible possible into early/mid afternoon hours today. Little or no additional new accumulation. Icy spots will continue through the afternoon through tonight into the first half of the day tomorrow when temperatures will finally get back
above freezing.

tk

…. 845am Weather Update ….

…. Weather Conditions Deteriorate Over the Next Few Hours ….
…. Icing Problems Will Worsen in Next Few Hours ….

NWS Doppler weather radar indicates to light to moderate freezing rain.. sleet and some snow spreading back into the Austin metro area from the west southwest. Moderate freezing rain with surface sidewalks and roadways becoming icy reported in the Kyle area south of Austin. Based on what I am seeing now, the situation will worsen over the next couple of hours in the Austin metro area and especially in areas to the south.

At 830am… hazardous/dangerous conditions continue to be reported; many of the bridges/overpasses and flyovers on Austin area roadways are being described as icy by the Austin Police Department, Travis County Sheriffs Office and other area law enforcement officials. Many of these have been closed. On behalf of our law enforcement and fire responder partners, we ask you NOT to be on the roadways unless absolutely necessary!

Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s at this time with some light freezing rain and sleet being reported in the area .

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6PM… periods of light freezing rain, sleet and snow possible possible through midday with conditions worsening..

tk

—-

…. 600am Weather Update ….

At 600am… hazardous/dangerous conditions increasingly being reported; many of the bridges/overpasses and flyovers on Austin area roadways are being described as icy by the Austin Police Department, Travis County Sheriffs Office and other area law enforcement officials who are in the process of trying to close the ramps. On behalf of our law enforcement and fire responder partners, we ask you NOT to be on the roadways
unless absolutely necessary!

Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s at this time with some light freezing rain and sleet being reported in the area .

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6PM… periods of light freezing rain, sleet and snow possible possible through midday with conditions worsening..

tk

 

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #7
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
750pm CT – Monday / 15  January 2018

… WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCLUDING
THE AUSTIN METRO AREA AND THE ENTIRE IH35 CORRIDOR EFFECTIVE AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6PM TOMORROW

.. Not Much Change in My Forecast Thought ..
.. Ice / Sleet / Snow Accumulations Likely After Midnight Tonight and Continuing through Midday Tomorrow ..

On this Monday evening, the arctic air mass has advanced southward into central Texas with the front just passing through the Waco area where the temperatures have fallen from near 60F to the mid 40s
over the past hour and a half. The freezing line is moving southward along the Red River now and will pass over the DFW metroplex in the next few hours. The arctic air mass is still forecast to move
southward into our area by later tonight between 10 and 11pm. As advertised, an upper air low pressure disturbance is poised to  track eastward over our area later tonight through the first half of the day tomorrow… already light rain showers have developed in advance of this feature over parts of Travis..
Williamson and Milam counties here in the 7pm hour. Short range high resolution model guidance indicates that this precipitation will linger over the area for as much as 12 to 14 hours after the frontal passage as moisture overruns the much colder surface air as it moves into and deepens over our area.

Surface temperatures, following the cold frontal passage, will fall into the 30s quickly with freezing temperatures likely by 2 to 3am tomorrow morning then into the upper 20s by daybreak with daytime highs tomorrow, with the associated cloud cover,  staying primarily in the upper 20s to near 30 with a
strong northerly wind and impressive wind chill in the teens to near 20 degrees.

As temperatures fall following the frontal passage later tonight, any precipitation that is occurring locally would transition over to freezing rain, freezing drizzle and sleet (ice pellets) as we get to the 3am to 4am hour
tomorrow morning. As the atmospheric column aloft continues to cool in the 6am to 9am hour tomorrow morning, although we could continue to see some freezing drizzle/freezing rain, I am thinking that we’ll see precipitation  transition over to a little more sleet (ice pellets) and light snow by mid and late morning before the precipitation tapers off. Ice accumulations will average up to a tenth of an inch with isolated totals to near one quarter inch with additional dusting of sleet (ice pellets) and snow accumulation possible
on top of this. After 3am to 4am tomorrow morning, temperatures will likely remain below freezing tomorrow and tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. As a result, hazardous/dangerous road conditions will result
throughout the IH35 corridor and south central Texas for the period from about 3am tomorrow morning through tomorrow and tomorrow night even into Wednesday late morning hours given this forecast scenario.

.. Update on Wednesday Night/Thursday Winter Weather Potential ..
At this point, the models have tended to pull away from the potential winter weather potential for late Wednesday night into Thursday. However, I will continue to monitor.

At this point locally, regarding the system tonight into tomorrow, my forecast confidence regarding the arrival of the much colder air continues to be very high.. with very high confidence that precipitation will occur.
However, being able to forecast exact precipitation type, at any given time in the forecast, is a lower confidence proposition although I have very high confidence that we’ll see overall freezing/frozen precipitation locally.
Please keep in mind, as with any winter weather episode around here, that the timing of the individual ingredients (of colder air arrival, atmospheric column temperatures aloft and the arrival and departure of the upper air disturbance) is critical important when you consider timing in the forecast given this winter weather event for south central Texas. In other words, if one of our ingredients or timing changes, the forecast can and will change.

In the early morning into midday hours tomorrow, I would appreciate any storm reports (freezing or frozen precipitation, icy bridges, etc) from throughout the area and I’ll forward those reports on your behalf to the
NWS Austin-San Antonio… please send them to me at troy@troykimmelweather.com.
Remember, include your exact location (city, county, cross streets if possible) and the exact time that the weather phenomena is observed. Below is an example from elsewhere around the country tonight of storm reports that the NWS prepares and the detail that they require (they can get lat/long based on your cross street location so you don’t have to worry about that)..

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     SNOW             OWENSBORO               37.76N 87.12W 
01/15/2018  M5.0 INCH        DAVIESS            KY   PUBLIC          

            MEASURED 5 INCH SNOW DEPTH

0645 PM     FREEZING RAIN    8 ENE BEAUFORT          34.77N 76.52W 
01/15/2018  E0.10 INCH       CARTERET           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA 

            GLAZE REPORTED ON CARS IN MARSHALLBERG


Thanks.. be careful out there and stay warm (when it turns colder!!).

I’ll continue to keep you informed… tk

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:

I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf
to the National Weather Service, please let me know at tkimmel@troykimmelweather.com

GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:

NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center

Categories: Austin Area Forecast, Special Briefings, Weather Discussion

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