Updated 845am CT Wednesday / 29 January 2014
…. Sunshine Returns as Clouds Move East Today ….
…. A Warming Trend into Late Week and Early Weekend ….
…. A More Unsettled Weather Pattern with Slim Rain Chances Over The Weekend ….
On this Wednesday morning…. an arctic surface high pressure area extends from over south central Texas northeastward to over western Tennessee. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are light and variable across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a massive.. broad counterclockwise rotating upper level low pressure is centered over the eastern and central Canada with the trough.. or line.. of lowest pressure extending southwestward over the Great Lakes and then southwestward to over Texas. Within this broad upper level counterclockwise upper air wind flow and at the base of the trough.. a strong upper air disturbances is over south central Texas. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 30 to 40 mph.
The upper air low pressure disturbance overhead and allowed mid and high level cloud cover to hold across the area this morning. As the upper disturbance moves east of the area today, skies will clear west to east.
In the wake of the disturbance, a more stable weather pattern will develop.. with abundant sunshine.. for the remainder of the week. As the arctic surface high dislodges and moves eastward out of Texas.. a south southeasterly surface wind will return with warmer temperatures through the remainder of the week.
With the approach of another weaker cold front late Saturday into Sunday, clouds return with slim chances over the weekend. The front will slip southward through the area late Saturday with an overrunning event.. with cloudy and cooler conditions and slim rain chances.. back behind the front Sunday into Monday.
Longer range guidance suggests another strong cold front will arrive the middle part of next week with some models suggesting another potential winter weather event for the southern plains states.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high today (some reservations about when clouds will move out of the area) then very high tonight through Thursday through Saturday. My forecast confidence falls to medium to high for the weekend into early next week.
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel