Weather Discussion

TK’s Weather Update for Wednesday / 19 July 2017….

by troyk | on Jul 19, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 19 July 2017

.. A Typical Dry Summer Weather Pattern Through the Next Seven Days ..

On the Weather Map…
Surface map… weak surface high pressure continues over most of Texas with a trough, or line, of low pressure from eastern Colorado and western Kansas southward into the western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are light southerly.

Upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is moving eastward into the Hudson Bay area with another upper level low pressure area off the west coast of British Columbia over the Pacific Ocean. Upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, covers the central USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are light easterly at less than 15 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
Through the balance of the seven day forecast, I see a dry weather pattern continuing as the upper level “lid” continues on the atmosphere especially north of the area. This time of year, we could always see an isolated buildup due to afternoon heating, but the coverage should be minimal or non-existent so I will not include it my forecast. The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests little if any precipitation through the next seven days.

Temperatures will continue to be above seasonal averages into next week.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 19 July 2017

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 26 July 2017 through Tuesday / 01 August 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 July)…………………………………………….. 6:42 am
Sunset this evening (19 July)……………………………………………… 8:33 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 July)………………………………………………… 6:42 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 July)…………………………………………………. 8:32 pm

TK’s Weather Update for Tuesday / 18 July 2017….

by troyk | on Jul 18, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 18 July 2017

.. Slim Rain Chances Today ..
.. A Typical Summer Weather Pattern for Much of the Seven Day Forecast ..

On the Weather Map…
Surface map… weak surface high pressure continues over most of Texas with a trough, or line, of low pressure from eastern Colorado and western Kansas southward into the western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are light southerly.

Upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends from the eastern Canada southward over the northeastern USA. Another trough is moving eastward into the Hudson Bay area with a third upper level low pressure area off the west coast of British Columbia. Upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, covers the southwestern and central USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are light easterly at less than 15 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
It looks like a more stable weather pattern is developing even though we’ll see widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening.

Tomorrow through the balance of the seven day forecast, I see a dry weather pattern continuing. We could always see an isolated buildup due to afternoon heating, but the coverage should be minimal so I will not include it my forecast. The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall amounts, on average, of a hundredth of an inch or less, through the next seven days.

Temperatures will slowly warm temperatures into early next week.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 18 July 2017

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 98. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Becoming mostly clear. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 98. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 99. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 25 July 2017 through Monday / 31 July 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 July)…………………………………………….. 6:41 am
Sunset this evening (18 July)……………………………………………… 8:33 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 July)………………………………………………… 6:42 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 July)…………………………………………………. 8:33 pm

TK’s Weather Update for Monday / 17 July 2017….

by troyk | on Jul 17, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 17 July 2017

.. Rain Chances Decrease as We Get Into our New Week ..
.. A Typical Summer Weather Pattern for Much of the Seven Day Forecast ..

On the Weather Map…
Surface map… weak surface high pressure continues over most of Texas with a trough, or line, of low pressure from eastern Colorado and western Kansas southward into the western Texas panhandle. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are light.

Upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends from the eastern parts of Hudson Bay southward across the St. Lawrence River Valley and over the eastern USA seaboard. Another trough extends from an upper level low over southwestern Canada into the Pacific northwest. Upper air high pressure covers the southwestern and central USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are light easterly at less than 15 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
After some weekend rain and thunderstorms and even a few reports of straightline thunderstorm wind damage around Williamson County, it looks like a more stable weather pattern is developing.

Rain and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast today and again tomorrow but the chances are down from the weekend. The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall amounts, on average, of 1/4 inch or less through the next seven days.

A dry and stable summer weather pattern, with plenty of sunshine, is expected with slowly warming temperatures mid and late week through next weekend.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 17 July 2017

TODAY…. Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 97. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Isolated evening rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk.. otherwise partly cloudy. A 10% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 98. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly clear. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 98. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 99. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 24 July 2017 through Sunday / 30 July 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 July)…………………………………………….. 6:41 am
Sunset this evening (17 July)……………………………………………… 8:33 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 July)………………………………………………… 6:41 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 July)…………………………………………………. 8:33 pm

TK’s Weather Update for Friday / 14 July 2017….

by troyk | on Jul 14, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 14 July 2017

.. A Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continuing ..
.. Rain Chances Headed Up Over the Weekend Into Early Next Week ..

On the Weather Map…
Surface map… surface high pressure is to the east of the area over the southeastern USA and the northern Gulf of Mexico with a stationary front moving southwestward from central Missouri and into a surface low over the western Oklahoma. A weakening cold front extends from the low into the northern Texas south plains and into central New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

Upper air map… upper level high pressure covers the southwestern USA with weak upper level winds over the southern USA. Passing upper level low pressure disturbances, one over the Great Lakes and another offshore of British Columbia, are moving eastward and generally remaining along and north of the USA/Canada border. There is an upper level low pressure area over the Rio Grande River southeast of El Paso with several other upper air disturbances over the lower Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are light and variable less than 15 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
For one more day.. today.. there will continue to be little change in the overall stable weather pattern for south central Texas and the Austin metro area with afternoon highs continuing above average. While a few towering clouds are possible primarily in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor and along and south of the IH10 corridor today into this evening, rain chances today at any given location is 10% or less.

By tomorrow into next week, computer model and manual forecast guidance continues to suggest that the upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, will weaken a bit and settle back north northwestward into the northern Rockies and plains states. This will allow for better moisture flow off of the Gulf of Mexico as a weakening cold front settles southward into Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. As a result, I think we’ll see more cloud cover and a little better rain chances beginning tomorrow and continuing Sunday and into the new week. The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall amounts, on average, of 1/2 inch locally for the time period tomorrow into the middle part of next week.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 14 July 2017

TODAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 100. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning hazard. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 98. Light winds becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk.. mainly before 9pm. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 76. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Light wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light late.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk.. mainly before 9pm. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 96. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk.. mainly before 9pm. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 97. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 21 July 2017 through Thursday / 27 July 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (14 July)…………………………………………….. 6:39 am
Sunset this evening (14 July)……………………………………………… 8:34 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (15 July)………………………………………………… 6:40 am
Sunset tomorrow (15 July)…………………………………………………. 8:34 pm

TK’s Weather Update for Thursday / 13 July 2017….

by troyk | on Jul 13, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 13 July 2017

.. A Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continuing ..
.. Rain Chances Still Show Up Over the Weekend ..

On the Weather Map…
Surface map… surface high pressure is to the east of the area over the southeastern USA and the northern Gulf of Mexico with a weakening cold front moving southward from central Missouri through central Kansas southwestward into a surface low over the Oklahoma panhandle then across the Texas panhandle into northern New Mexico then northward as a stationary front into western Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

Upper air map… a zonal (west-to-east) upper air wind pattern continues over the USA with passing upper level low pressure disturbances remaining well north of the USA/Canada border. An upper level high pressure area.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. is centered over the intermountain west and the Rockies. There is a weak upper level low pressure area over the Rio Grande River west northwest of Del Rio with several other upper air disturbances over the lower Mississippi Valley and the southeastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are southerly 5 to 15 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
There will continue to be little change in the overall stable weather pattern for south central Texas and the Austin metro area over the next few days. While a few towering clouds are possible primarily in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor and along and south of the IH10 corridor today into this evening and over the next day or so, I do not expect any precipitation locally.

By the weekend into next week, longer range computer model and manual forecast guidance continues to suggest that the upper level high pressure will weaken a bit and settle back north northwestward into the northern Rockies and plains states. This will allow for better moisture flow off of the Gulf of Mexico as a weakening cold front settles southward into Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. As a result, I think we’ll see more cloud cover and a little better rain chances beginning Saturday and continuing Sunday and into the new week. At this time, the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggest rainfall, on average, of 1/4 to 1/2 inch locally for the Saturday through Tuesday time period.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 13 July 2017

TODAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 100. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. South southeasterly winds 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. South southeasterly winds 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 96. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 76. South southeasterly winds 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 20 July 2017 through Wednesday / 26 July 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (13 July)…………………………………………….. 6:39 am
Sunset this evening (13 July)……………………………………………… 8:35 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (14 July)………………………………………………… 6:39 am
Sunset tomorrow (14 July)…………………………………………………. 8:34 pm