Weather Discussion

by troyk | on May 04, 2017 | Comments Off

Forecast not available today…

Please consult the NWS Austin Area Weather Forecast here.

by troyk | on May 03, 2017 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1030am CT – Wednesday / 03 May 2017

.. “Marginal” Severe Thunderstorm Risk This Afternoon with Cold Frontal Passage ..


This threat will primarily be in the 2pm to 6pm time period today with the greatest risks
being some larger hail and the potential for stronger straight line thunderstorm winds.
I think this situation may resemble last Saturday’s event locally where the thunderstorm
activity developed directly overhead. In addition to the possible severe thunderstorm risk,
please remember that frequent deadly lightning could accompany any thunderstorms that do
develop.

Please remain weather aware today. Unfortunately, I will not have access to my usual weather
tools for this weather event (afternoon and nighttime hours) so you will be responsible for
keeping up with this weather event…

I strongly recommend the NWS/Austin-San Antonio website.. http://www.weather.gov/ewx/ .

This is my final statement on this weather event.
tk

by troyk | on May 02, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 02 May 2017

.. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern Continues ..
.. Another Cold Front with Stronger Thunderstorms Tomorrow ..
.. Clearing and a Bit Cooler Again Late Week ..

On this Tuesday… a northward developing warm front extends from west Texas south of Midland east southeastward across our area and into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Pressure is lowering over west Texas and New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are south southwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep trough.. or line of upper level low pressure.. extends southward from the Great Lakes southward through the eastern 2/3rds of the country. The upper level low pressure disturbance over the Baja Peninsula continues. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are westerly 35 to 45 mph.

A stable air mass continues across our area as southerly winds increase and helps to transport low level moisture northward.

The upper air low pressure disturbance, out west over the Baja Peninsula, will deepen and move slowly east northeastward toward Texas over the next 24 hours. As it does, the low level moisture will continue to increase over the area as the air mass grows more unstable.

By late tonight into tomorrow and tomorrow night, a surface cold front, associated with the approaching/passing upper level low, will increase the lift in the atmosphere as it become increasing moist and unstable. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will occur over the area with the possibility of severe thunderstorms.. including the risk of larger hail, damaging thunderstorm winds and even a few tornadoes over our area. At the current time, the NWS/Storm Prediction Center has our area in a “marginal” severe thunderstorm risk. Given the progressive nature of the system, rainfall for this event will stay below one inch.

Once this system passes by tomorrow night, we’ll see clouds break with sunshine returning along with a little cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

It looks like a sunny weekend coming up with a slow warming trend.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 02 May 2017

TODAY…. Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High 91. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes by the evening rush hour. Some thunderstorms may be strong with an associated hail and strong straight line wind threat. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming southwesterly in the afternoon before shifting northwesterly by the evening rush hour.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 9pm. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Decreasing clouds and cooler by midnight. Low 58. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 78. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 53. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light after midnight.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 81. Light northerly wind becoming more northeasterly by afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 56. Light easterly wind becoming more southeasterly after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 84. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 59. Light southerly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 09 May 2017 through Monday / 15 May 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (02 May)……………………………………………. 6:49 am
Sunset this evening (02 May)……………………………………………… 8:08 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (03 May)………………………………………………… 6:49 am
Sunset tomorrow (03 May)…………………………………………………. 8:09 pm

by troyk | on May 01, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 01 May 2017

.. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern to Start the Week ..
.. Another Cold Front with Stronger Thunderstorms Possible Midweek ..
.. Clearing and a Bit Cooler Again Late Week ..

On this Monday… a strong surface low pressure area is over the Great Lakes states with a cold front extending southward into the southeastern USA and the Gulf of Mexico. Weak surface high pressure is over east Texas as pressures lower once again over west Texas and New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are south southwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep trough.. or line of upper level low pressure.. extends southward from the Great Lakes southward through the eastern 2/3rds of the country. Another upper level low pressure disturbance is over the Baja Peninsula. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are westerly 55 to 60 mph.

A drier and more stable air mass has moved into Texas in the wake of the Saturday evening cold front and round of rain showers and thunderstorms that affected the central and eastern parts of the area.

The upper air low pressure disturbance will deepen and move slowly east northeastward toward Texas over the next day or so. As it does, abundant low level moisture will increase over the area as the air mass grows more unstable.

By late tomorrow night into Wednesday and Wednesday night, a surface cold front, associated with the approaching/passing upper level low, will increase the lift in the atmosphere as it become increasing moist and unstable. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will occur over the area with the possibility of severe thunderstorms.. including the risk of larger hail, damaging thunderstorm winds and even a few tornadoes over our area. At the current time, the NWS/Storm Prediction Center has our area in a “marginal” severe thunderstorm risk but hey do indicate this risk could be increased by the time the severe weather outlooks are updated again tomorrow morning. Given the progressive nature of the system, rainfall for this event will stay below one inch.

Once this system passes by Wednesday evening, we’ll see clouds break with sunshine returning along with a little cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

It looks like a sunny weekend coming up with a slow warming trend.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 01 May 2017

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 86. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 60. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High 91. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes by the evening rush hour. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming southwesterly in the afternoon before shifting northwesterly by the evening rush hour.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 10pm. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Decreasing clouds and cooler by midnight. Low 57. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 78. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 53. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light after midnight.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 81. Light northerly wind becoming more northeasterly by afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 56. Light easterly wind becoming more southeasterly after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 84. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 59. Light southerly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 08 May 2017 through Sunday / 14 May 2017…
Temperature… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (01 May)……………………………………………. 6:50 am
Sunset this evening (01 May)……………………………………………… 8:07 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (02 May)………………………………………………… 6:49 am
Sunset tomorrow (02 May)…………………………………………………. 8:08 pm

by troyk | on Apr 28, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 28 April 2017

.. A Stronger Cold Front with a Chance of Thunderstorms by Late Saturday ..
.. Cooler Temperatures Sunday into Monday ..

On this Friday… a northeastward moving warm front extends southeastward from a surface low pressure area over west central Texas through east Texas into Louisiana and southern Mississippi. A cold front extends from the low pressure area through west Texas and west central New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep trough.. or line of upper level low pressure.. extends southward from central and western Canada through the western 2/3rds of the USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are west southwesterly 55 to 65 mph.

Surface winds have returned back southerly with low level moisture quickly returning to the area.

As a dynamic area of upper air low pressure moves eastward through the southwestern USA into the southern and central plains by late tonight into tomorrow, a stronger area of surface low pressure and associated cold front will advance quickly into Texas. The cold front will pass through the local area late Saturday night. With abundant low level moisture in place along with instability and atmospheric lift accompanying the system, the latest guidance from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center suggests prefrontal thunderstorms over the area with stronger, potentially severe, thunderstorms mainly in areas to our north over north and east Texas and Oklahoma and areas eastward.

A drier.. more stable and a cooler air mass will move into Texas in the wake of the front for most of the day Sunday through Sunday night into early next week.

Another low pressure area and cold front will progress southeastward across the area late next Wednesday with another chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler and drier air will advance into the area again by Wednesday night into Thursday.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 28 April 2017

TODAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm with a high of 92. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming cloudy late. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 89. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 59. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.. winds becoming more southwesterly after midnight then northwesterly toward daybreak as a cold front passes.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 7am with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Clearing.. less humid and a little cooler after mid morning. High 75. Northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear and unseasonably cool. Low 50. North northwesterly 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 80. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more east northeasterly by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 58. Light easterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunny and warmer. High 86. Southerly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Decreasing clouds after 2am. Low 59. Southwesterly wind shifting northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 77. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 05 May 2017 through Thursday / 11 May 2017…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (28 Apr)……………………………………………. 6:50 am
Sunset this evening (28 Apr)……………………………………………… 8:07 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (29 Apr)………………………………………………… 6:49 am
Sunset tomorrow (29 Apr)…………………………………………………. 8:08 pm