Weather Discussion

by troyk | on Nov 15, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 15 November 2017

.. A Stable Weather Pattern ..
.. Our Next Cold Front Has Slowed A Bit and Now Due on Saturday ..

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure is located over the northeastern USA with deepening lower pressure extending southward from the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into southwest Texas. A cold front is found within the low pressure trough from a surface low over Wisconsin into northwestern Missouri into central and western Oklahoma then southwestward across the Texas south plains and then west northwestward into northeastern New Mexico and Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

On the upper air map… the zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind pattern is buckling a bit with a low pressure disturbance east of Maine.. another deepening from the upper Mississippi Valley into the plains states.. and a third low pressure trough deepening from offshore of British Columbia southward to offshore of the USA west coast. Upper air high pressure has weakened at bit and settled more southwestward and is now centered over western areas of Mexico and the Baja Peninsula. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are northwesterly 70 to 75 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

A southerly surface wind continues over the area with late night and early morning low cloudiness evident over the area. We should see the clouds break a bit for the afternoon hours today with warmer temperatures. Those low clouds will return late tonight and continue into the morning hours Thursday.

A weak cold front will approach the area by tomorrow morning with slightly cooler temperatures. A few rain showers may accompany the weak cold frontal passage. As quickly as the front settles into the area, it will wash out overhead or just to our southeast and return back northward as a warm front with south southeasterly winds returning by tomorrow night.

After tomorrow, the next cold front, stronger in nature, has slowed down a bit based on the latest manual and computer weather guidance. It now looks like the front will pass around midday or early afternoon Saturday. As mentioned yesterday, the air mass, in advance of the front, will be fairly stable and will have dried out a bit on Friday with a more southwesterly wind. As a result, I do not expect any precipitation as the front moves through.

A breezy and cooler weather pattern will be in place once the front passes Saturday with skies clearing. Daytime highs falling back to slightly below seasonal averages.

A return south southeasterly wind will return by Monday into Tuesday of next week with warmer temperatures settling in once again in the days before Thanksgiving.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 15 November 2017

TODAY…. Patchy morning fog. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 81. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low clouds and patchy fog and drizzle developing after midnight. The chance of rain is 20%; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average trace amounts. Low 65. Light east southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Patchy morning fog and drizzle. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers as a cold front passes in the morning. The chance of rain is 30%; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/10th inch or less. High 77. Light easterly wind becoming north northeasterly 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early. Low clouds and patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 64. Light northeasterly wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph late.

FRIDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm. High 84. South southwesterly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 67. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. Turning windy and cooler as a cold front passes midday into early afternoon. High 76. Southwesterly wind becoming northerly 15 to 25 mph and gusty by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear and colder. Low 45. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph decreasing after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. Cooler. High 65. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 39. Light northeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 68. Light wind becoming east southeasterly by late afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 47. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph after midnight.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny and a bit warmer. High 73. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 22 November 2017 through Tuesday / 28 November 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (15 November)………………………………. 6:57 am
Sunset this evening (15 November)………………………………… 5:34 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (16 November)…………………………………… 6:58 am
Sunset tomorrow (16 November)……………………………………. 5:34 pm

by troyk | on Nov 14, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 14 November 2017

.. A Dry Weather Pattern ..
.. Another Cold Front Due Late Friday Night ..

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure is located over the northeastern USA with deepening lower pressure extending southward from eastern Wyoming through eastern Colorado and into New Mexico and west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind pattern exists over much of the USA. Upper air high pressure is over northern Mexico. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are northwesterly around 60 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

As surface high pressure over the northeastern USA moves eastward, a southerly surface wind has become established over the area.

As we continue into mid week, we’ll see a bit more sunshine with afternoon highs warming a bit and getting back well above seasonal averages by Thursday into Friday.

Another cold front will sweep quickly through the area by late Friday night. The air mass, in advance of the front, will be fairly stable and will have dried out a bit on Friday with a more southwesterly wind. As a result, I do not expect any precipitation as the front moves through.

A clear and cooler weather pattern will be in place for the upcoming weekend intoearly next week with daytime highs falling back to near or even slightly below seasonal averages.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 14  November 2017

TODAY…. Partly cloudy. High 80. Southerly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low clouds and patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 63. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 81. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low clouds and patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 65. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 81. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low clouds and patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 67. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm. High 84. South southwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy in the evening hours then clearing as a cold front passes after midnight. Turning cooler. Low 58. Southwesterly wind shifting north northwesterly 8 to 18 mph.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 67. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 45. Light northerly wind.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 68. Northeasterly wind becoming easterly at 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 45. Light southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 70. Southerly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 21 November 2017 through Monday / 27 November 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (14 November)………………………………. 6:56 am
Sunset this evening (14 November)………………………………… 5:35 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (15 November)…………………………………… 6:57 am
Sunset tomorrow (15 November)……………………………………. 5:34 pm

by troyk | on Nov 13, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 13 November 2017

.. A Dry Weather Pattern As We Start the New Week ..
.. Another Cold Front Due Friday Night ..

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure is located over Illinois and Indiana with deepening lower pressure extending southward from eastern Wyoming through eastern Colorado and into New Mexico and west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are light east northeasterly.

On the upper air map… a eastward moving trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends southward from east of Hudson Bay into eastern Canada and northeastern USA. Another trough of upper level low pressure extends from the Pacific coast of British Columbia southwestward to off the Pacific Northwest coast. Upper air high pressure is over northern Canada. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are west northwesterly 60 to 70 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

A weak cold front passed through the area around sunrise Sunday morning. Clouds lingered across the area through much of the day with a few sprinkles.

Clouds have broken a bit in the predawn hours this morning as surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley Region and southern Great Lakes move eastward. As it moves further eastward, a southerly surface wind will become established over the area by later today into tonight.

As we continue into mid week, we’ll see a bit more sunshine with afternoon highs warming a bit and getting back well above seasonal averages by Thursday into Friday.

Another cold front will sweep quickly through the area in the evening hours on Friday. The air mass, in advance of the front, will be fairly stable and will have dried out a bit on Friday with a more southwesterly wind. As a result, I do not expect any precipitation as the front moves through.

A clear and cooler weather pattern will be in place for the upcoming weekend with daytime highs falling back to near or even slightly below seasonal averages.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 13 November 2017

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 77. Light wind becoming more easterly at 4 to 8 mph by late afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60. Light southeasterly wind becoming light and variable late.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 79. Southerly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low clouds and patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 62. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 80. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low clouds and patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 65. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 81. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low clouds and patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 67. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm. High 84. South southwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing as a cold front passes. Turning cooler. Low 57. Southwesterly wind shifting north northwesterly 8 to 18 mph.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 72. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 45. Light northerly wind.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 70. Northerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 20 November 2017 through Sunday / 26 November 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (13 November)………………………………. 6:55 am
Sunset this evening (13 November)………………………………… 5:35 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (14 November)…………………………………… 6:56 am
Sunset tomorrow (14 November)……………………………………. 5:35 pm

by troyk | on Nov 10, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 10 November 2017

.. Clouds Linger ..
.. A Little Warmer into the Weekend ..
.. Another Weak Cold Front Due Sunday ..

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a cold front extends west southwestward from central Florida into the central Gulf of Mexico then into Mexico well south of Brownsville. Another secondary cold front is located from the Tennessee Valley westward into northern/central Arkansas into central Oklahoma where it becomes stationary and continues westward to the Texas panhandle and then northwestward into Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are northeasterly.

On the upper air map… a eastward moving trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends southward from Hudson Bay into the northeastern USA. Another trough of upper level low pressure extends west southwestward from south central Canada into the northwestern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are west northwesterly 30 to 35 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Overrunning moisture.. moisture moving up and over the cooler surface based air.. continues with clouds lingering across the area although the precipitation. The latest satellite imagery shows some breaks in the overcast but the latest short range high resolution model data suggests clouds will linger over most of the area through tomorrow with warmer temperatures expected.

By late tonight through tomorrow and tomorrow night, that guidance suggests a few sprinkles may develop over south central Texas. However, the chance of rain at any given location will be slim and any rainfall that occurs will likely only produce trace rainfall amounts.

Another weak cold front is due in the morning hours on Sunday. A few sprinkles may continue to be present over the area just ahead of and along the front. Once the front passes, we’ll see some lingering clouds late Sunday into Monday with a few sprinkles continuing to be possible.

By next Tuesday through the middle part of next week, we’ll see a bit more sunshine with rain chances dropping from the forecast. Afternoon highs will also warm at bit with afternoon highs getting back above seasonal averages.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 10 November 2017

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 64. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more easterly by late afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 53. Light easterly wind becoming calm late.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy through mid afternoon then mostly cloudy. A few sprinkles developing. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average trace amounts. High 72. South southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. A few sprinkles. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average trace amounts. Low 59. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers as a weak cold front passes late in the day. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/10th inch or less. High 74. Wind becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/10th inch or less. Low 59. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/10th inch or less. High 72. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more southeasterly by mid and late afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/10th inch or less. Low 59. Light south southeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Decreasing clouds early. Becoming partly cloudy. High 77. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 61. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 78. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 80. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 17 November 2017 through Thursday / 23 November 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (10 November)………………………………. 6:53 am
Sunset this evening (10 November)………………………………… 5:37 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (11 November)…………………………………… 6:53 am
Sunset tomorrow (11 November)……………………………………. 5:36 pm

by troyk | on Nov 09, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 09 November 2017

.. Clouds Linger ..
.. A Little Warmer Late Week into the Weekend ..
.. Another Weak Cold Front Due Early Sunday ..

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a cold front extends southwestward from northern Florida into the central and western Gulf of Mexico then into Mexico well south of Brownsville then into Mexico. Surface high pressure, behind the front, is located from Missouri southwestward across central Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are northerly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends southward through the Mississippi Valley into east Texas. Another trough of upper level low pressure is offshore of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are northwesterly 40 to 50 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The surface cold front has settled southward well into the Gulf of Mexico with the surface high pressure, behind the front, currently overhead of our local area. Overrunning clouds are continuing across the area although the precipitation has ended with the passage of the upper level trough which is east of the area.

Clouds will break with a slow warming trend getting underway by tomorrow into Saturday.

Clouds will pick up again by late Saturday into Saturday night as a south southeasterly surface wind becomes better established ahead of yet another cold front due in the morning hours on Sunday. A few sprinkles may develop early Sunday ahead of and along the front with slightly cooler temperatures again expected Sunday into Monday.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 09 November 2017

TODAY…. A few sprinkles possible before 7am. Clouds early then becoming partly to mostly cloudy. High 59. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more northeasterly in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 51. Light northeasterly wind.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 69. Light northeast wind becoming more east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 53. Light southeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 72. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 58. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles in the morning as a cold front passes. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average trace amounts. Partial clearing in the afternoon. High 72. Southerly wind becoming north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 55. Light northeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 58. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly overnight.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 60. Light southeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 77. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 16 November 2017 through Wednesday / 22 November 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (09 November)………………………………. 6:52 am
Sunset this evening (09 November)………………………………… 5:37 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (10 November)…………………………………… 6:53 am
Sunset tomorrow (10 November)……………………………………. 5:37 pm