Weather Discussion

by troyk | on Jun 06, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 06 June 2018

… A Dry Weather Pattern Continues …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a stationary front is lifting northward from a surface low over southeastern Colorado southeastward into western Oklahoma and north central Texas then into southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana then along the Mississippi and Alabama coasts eastward into northern Florida. A trough, or line, of low pressure extends south southwestward from the southeastern Colorado low into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are southerly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southeastward from south of Hudson Bay into the eastern and southeastern USA. Another trough extends southward from British Columbia to along the west coast of the USA. A ridge, or line, of upper air high pressure extends north northeastward from northern Mexico into west Texas and the southern plains states. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northwesterly at 35 to 40 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

While longer range forecast guidance continues to suggest that upper level high pressure is strengthening overhead resulting in a dry weather pattern, it may not be quite as strong by the weekend into early next week. After a rebound in afternoon high temperatures yesterday as well as today into tomorrow, afternoon highs may decrease a degree or two by the time we get into Friday into the weekend.

Based upon the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, little to no rainfall is expected over the next seven days.

Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 06 June 2018

TODAY…. Some brief morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 13 June 2018 through Tuesday / 19 June 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (06 Jun)………………………………………… 6:29 am
Sunset this evening (06 Jun)………………………………………….. 8:31 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (07 Jun)…………………………………………….. 6:29 am
Sunset tomorrow (07 Jun)……………………………………………… 8:31 pm

by troyk | on Jun 05, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 05 June 2018

… A Dry Weather Pattern …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a warm front is lifting northward from a surface low over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles southeastward into north central Texas and east Texas and central Louisiana then off the Mississippi coast into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico as a stationary front. A trough, or line, of low pressure extends south southwestward from the panhandle low into southeastern New Mexico and far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are southerly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southeastward from south of Hudson Bay into the northeastern USA. Another trough of upper level low pressure area also extends southward from the middle Mississippi Valley into Louisiana. A third trough extends south southwestward off the west coast of the USA. A ridge, or line, of upper air high pressure extends north northeastward from northern Mexico through the plains states into the Dakotas. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

As upper level high pressure rebuilds over the area, longer range forecast guidance suggests that upper level high pressure will strengthen again overhead with a dry weather pattern through the weekend and well into next week. After a little break in the summer heat over the last day or so, afternoon high temperatures will rebound to well above seasonal averages.

Based upon the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, no rainfall is expected over the next seven days.

Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 05 June 2018

TODAY…. Some brief morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 12 June 2018 through Monday / 18 June 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (05 Jun)………………………………………… 6:29 am
Sunset this evening (05 Jun)………………………………………….. 8:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (06 Jun)…………………………………………….. 6:29 am
Sunset tomorrow (06 Jun)……………………………………………… 8:31 pm

by troyk | on Jun 04, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 04 June 2018

… Thunderstorm Complex Moves Overhead Northern Areas Overnight …
… Rain Chances Decrease After Today with Sunshine Returning …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a stationary front extends westward from the Mobile AL/New Orleans LA area to overhead of south central Texas then westward into far southwest/west Texas then into southwestern New Mexico. High pressure, to the north of the front, is centered over northwestern Arkansas and southwestern Missouri. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are light and variable.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southeastward from south of Hudson Bay into the northeastern USA. A trough, or line, of upper level low pressure area also extends south southwestward from offshore of British Columbia to offshore of the USA west coast. An upper air disturbance is situated from southern Kansas into Texas. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are fairly light southwesterly 10 to 15 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Our southward moving cold front has pulled up stationary east-to-west just south of the Austin metro area. An upper air disturbance combine with the dissipating front as well as available low level moisture and instability to produce overnight rain shower and thunderstorm activity in the northern parts of south central Texas. There were considerable differences in rainfall amounts in relatively small areas; parts of northeastern Travis County around Pflugerville and hill country areas over southern Burnet county received between 5 to 6 inches of rain while southwestern Travis County received no rainfall.

The upper air disturbance, the front and instability will be hanging around today into tonight with a lingering chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.

Longer range forecast guidance suggests that the stationary front will wash out and then return back quickly northward as a warm front by tonight into tomorrow. In the wake of the upper air low pressure disturbance, upper level high pressure will strengthen again with a dry weather pattern for the middle and latter part of the week through the weekend.

Based upon the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, rainfall, over the next seven days, will average less than a tenth of an inch.

Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Monday / 04 June 2018

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy and not as warm with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rain occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 93. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph by midday and afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 9pm with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rain occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 11 June 2018 through Sunday / 17 June 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (04 Jun)………………………………………… 6:29 am
Sunset this evening (04 Jun)………………………………………….. 8:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (05 Jun)…………………………………………….. 6:29 am
Sunset tomorrow (05 Jun)……………………………………………… 8:30 pm

by troyk | on Jun 01, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 01 June 2018

… A Dry and Summer Like Weather Pattern Continues …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a low pressure area is over the Texas/New Mexico state line with a stationary front extending northeastward into northwestern Oklahoma and central Kansas and northeastward from there. A dryline, a boundary between moist air mass to the east from the drier continental airmass to the west, extends from the surface low southwestward into southeastern New Mexico and far southwestern Texas. Surface high pressure is situated well to our east off the southeastern USA seaboard. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are southerly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southeastward from Hudson Bay into the southeastern USA. A trough, or line, of upper level low pressure area also extends south southwestward from northern Idaho southward to off the coast of southern California. Upper level high pressure is building northeastward from northern Mexico into the southern plains states. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northwesterly about 35 to 40 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The dry weather pattern continues with the stable summer like weather pattern to prevail through the balance of the week and continuing into the upcoming weekend.

Guidance is still suggesting that afternoon highs will rise to near 100 by the weekend as the upper level high pressure, to our southwest over northern Mexico and southwest Texas, builds northeastward into the area and establishes more of a “lid” on the atmosphere locally.

There are still some indications that a weak cold front.. with stronger northwest winds aloft.. will make it southward into central Texas by Sunday morning. With upper air high pressure increasing its hold on the area, afternoon high temperatures locally may peak in areas in advance of the front by Saturday and Sunday as the front tries to move deeper in Texas. Some marginal instability and atmospheric lift will develop Sunday afternoon south of the dissipating front; as a result, I’ll now include isolated thunderstorms primarily north of Austin with an associated lightning risk as well as a threat of very strong, potentially damaging, straightline winds.

Extended forecast guidance suggests that Sunday cold front will wash out just to our north by Sunday afternoon and then return back quickly northward as a warm front by Sunday night into Monday. Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate our weather pattern with a dry weather pattern for much of next week.

Based upon the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, rainfall, over the next seven days, will average less than a tenth of an inch.

Have a good Friday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Friday / 01 June 2018

TODAY…. Some AM low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Brief morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Brief morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon with an associated lightning and strong wind threat. A 10% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/10th inch or less. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Isolated thunderstorms before 9pm with an associated lightning and strong wind threat. A 10% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/10th inch or less. Mostly clear. Low 73. Light and variable wind except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Light and variable wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Light southerly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 08 June 2018 through Thursday / 14 June 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (01 Jun)………………………………………… 6:30 am
Sunset this evening (01 Jun)………………………………………….. 8:28 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (02 Jun)…………………………………………….. 6:29 am
Sunset tomorrow (02 Jun)……………………………………………… 8:29 pm

by troyk | on May 30, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 30 May 2018

… A Dry and Summer Like Weather Patterns …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a low pressure area over west Texas with a dryline, a boundary between moist air mass to the east from the drier continental airmass to the west, extended south southwestward from the low into southwest Texas. A stationary front extends southwest from central and northern Missouri into southeastern Kansas and into Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Surface high pressure is situated to our northeast over Arkansas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are light southerly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southeastward from the Dakotas southeastward into the southeastern USA. Another trough, or line, of upper level low pressure area extends south southwestward from British Columbia to the eastern Pacific Ocean off the west coast of the USA. Upper level high pressure is building northeastward from northern Mexico into the Rio Grande country of south and west Texas. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northwesterly about 50 to 60 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The dry weather pattern continues with the stable summer like weather pattern to prevail through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

Although we’ve been a little slower getting to the 100 degree mark than I thought we would be, guidance is still suggesting that afternoon highs will rise to near 100 by the weekend as the upper level high pressure, to our southwest over northern Mexico, builds northeastward into the area and establishes more of a “lid” on the atmosphere locally.

There are some indications that a weak cold front.. with stronger northwest winds aloft.. will make it southward into our area by Sunday into Monday. With upper air high pressure increasing its hold on the area, afternoon high temperatures locally may peak in areas in advance of the front by Saturday and Sunday as the front tries to move deeper in Texas. I’m not yet convinced that the front will make it this far south and will hold off on any rain chances.

Based upon the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, no rainfall is expected over the next seven days for the local area.

Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 30 May 2018

TODAY…. Some AM low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some AM low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some AM low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Light and variable wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Light and variable wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Light southerly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 05 June 2018 through Monday / 11 June 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (29 May)………………………………………… 6:30 am
Sunset this evening (29 May)………………………………………….. 8:27 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (30 May)…………………………………………….. 6:30 am
Sunset tomorrow (30 May)……………………………………………… 8:28 pm