Weather Discussion

by troyk | on May 30, 2017 | Comments Off

I’m on vacation through Friday / 23 June 2017…

In my absence, click here for the latest Austin area forecast from the meteorologists at the NWS/Austin-San Antonio..

by troyk | on May 19, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 19 May 2017

.. An Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues ..
.. Best Rain Chances Saturday through Saturday Night ..
.. Another Storm System with Rain Chances Monday into Tuesday ..

On this Friday… a surface low pressure area is over southern Kansas with a cold front extending southwestward into western Oklahoma through the southern Texas panhandle and the northern south plains of west Texas then into northeastern New Mexico. A dry line.. separating dry air to the west from moist and tropical air to the east.. extends from its intersection with the cold front over the southeastern Texas panhandle south southwestward into far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep upper air low pressure trough, or north to south line of low pressure, covers the western 2/3rds of the USA with a strong disturbance embedded within the trough over the four corners region. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are west southwesterly 35 to 45 mph.

The broad upper air low pressure trough, currently located over the western 2/3rds of the USA, has continued to contribute to a more moist and unstable air mass overhead.

We’ll continue to see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms today through tonight.. with the highest rain chances and the strongest thunderstorms remaining to our north, northwest and west.

By tomorrow into early Sunday, the strong upper level low pressure disturbance out west and the trough of low pressure overall will move northeastward into the plains states. This will allow a surface cold front to move southeastward across the IH35 corridor by tomorrow night into the predawn hours Sunday. Abundant atmospheric lift will combine with the rich low level moisture and an unstable atmosphere to produce scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms particularly after mid day tomorrow through the early morning hours on Sunday. Periods of heavier rain are possible over the area.

The cold front will weaken later Sunday through Sunday night along and offshore of the Texas coast with rain chances decreasing (but not disappearing completely) locally as the front pulls up stationary in the Texas coastal waters.

By early Monday and continuing into early Tuesday, another strong upper level low pressure disturbance will approach the area from the west with the front off the Texas coast returning quickly northwestward as a warm front into our area. As the warm, moist and more unstable air mass returns and the low pressure area approaches from the west, I will quickly increase rain shower and thunderstorm chances again by early Monday and continuing into early Tuesday as another cold front sweeps eastward through the area.

As always, a reminder that lightning, associated with any thunderstorms that develop or move into the area over the next few days, will pose a danger. Updated guidance continues to suggests upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rain locally with isolated heavier amounts to over 4 inches over the next four days.

In the wake of the front, skies will partially clear as more stable, slightly cooler and drier air takes hold for Tuesday night and Wednesday into Thursday next week.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 19 May 2017

TODAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 92. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the morning becoming more numerous in the afternoon with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain in the morning increasing to 50% in the afternoon; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 88. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/2 to 1 inch. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more south southwesterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a weak cold front moves southeastward through the area by sunrise. Rain chances decreasing midday into afternoon with the sky becoming partly to mostly cloudy. A 60% chance of rain before 8am decreasing to 20% by afternoon; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 83. Winds becoming northeasterly 5 to 10 mph as the front passes.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and a little cooler with widely scattered rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average trace amounts. Low 64. Light northeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 84. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly by late afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes before 9am. Rain chances decreasing by afternoon. A 60% chance of rain before 9am decreasing to 20% by afternoon; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming northerly by midday into early afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and a little cooler with widely scattered rain showers before midnight. Decreasing clouds after midnight becoming partly cloudy. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 63. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 59. Light northeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 84. Light winds becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 26 May 2017 through Thursday / 01 June 2017…
Temperature… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 May)……………………………………………. 6:35 am
Sunset this evening (18 May)……………………………………………… 8:20 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 May)………………………………………………… 6:34 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 May)…………………………………………………. 8:21 pm

by troyk | on May 17, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 17 May 2017

.. An Unsettled Weather Pattern Through the Weekend ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Come and Go ..

On this Wednesday… a surface low pressure area is over southwestern Kansas with a cold front extending southward through western Oklahoma into northwest Texas then southwestward into northern Mexico southeast of the Texas Big Bend. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are variable mainly due to our morning rain shower activity ahead of the advancing cold front.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep upper air low pressure trough, or north to south line of low pressure, covers the western 2/3rds of the USA with disturbances embedded within the trough over southwestern Kansas and another disturbance over the southern part of Idaho. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are southwesterly 85 to 95 mph.

The approaching upper air low pressure trough, currently located over the western 2/3rds of the USA, has caused our atmosphere to become more unstable. As predicted, the first in a series of upper level low pressure disturbances moved across the area earlier this morning with scattered rain showers over our area.

In the wake of the initial disturbance, we’ll continue to see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms today through Thursday, Friday and Friday night under a partly to mostly cloudy sky even though it is difficult to find an exact triggering mechanism other than daytime heating.

By Saturday into Saturday night and into early Sunday, another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will pass southwest to northeast over our area and will allow a surface cold front to move southeastward across the IH35 corridor by sunrise Sunday morning. Scattered to locally numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will be present over the area particularly after mid afternoon Saturday through midday Sunday. Periods of heavier rain are possible over the area.

The cold front will weaken Sunday midday through Monday along and offshore of the Texas coast with rain chances dropping from the forecast late Sunday into Sunday night and Monday.

By late Monday into Tuesday, another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will approach the area rom the west with the front off the Texas coast returning northwestward as a warm front into our area. As the warm, moist and more unstable air mass returns and the low pressure area approaches from the west, I will reintroduce rain shower and thunderstorm chances by Monday night and Tuesday.

As always, a reminder that lightning, associated with any thunderstorms that develop or move into the area, will pose a danger. Updated guidance continues to suggests upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rain locally with isolated heavier amounts over the next seven days.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 17 May 2017

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average trace amounts. High 88. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly after 2pm with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a weak cold front moves southeastward through the area before 9am. A 40% chance of rain before 9am; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 83. Winds becoming light east northeasterly around daybreak.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and a little cooler. Low 63. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 85. Light wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain before 9am; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 66. Wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 87. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 24 May 2017 through Tuesday / 30 May 2017…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 May)……………………………………………. 6:36 am
Sunset this evening (17 May)……………………………………………… 8:19 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 May)………………………………………………… 6:35 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 May)…………………………………………………. 8:20 pm

by troyk | on May 16, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 16 May 2017

.. An Unsettled Weather Pattern Developing Through the Weekend ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorms on the Increase ..

On this Tuesday… a surface low pressure area extends south southwestward from South Dakota and Nebraska into eastern Colorado and western Kansas. A dry line, separating dry air to the west from warmer and moist air northward off the Gulf of Mexico, extends south southwestward from the surface low over eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas east of El Paso. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deepening upper air low pressure trough, or north to south line of low pressure, covers the western half of the USA with disturbances embedded within the trough over southern Nevada and another disturbance over the Olympic Peninsula of western Washington. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are westerly 55 to 65 mph.

In the wake of the drier and more stable air mass that arrived locally over the weekend, a maritime tropical air mass is back in place over the area with south southeasterly surface wind right off the Gulf of Mexico.

The approaching upper air low pressure trough, currently located over the western half of the USA, will cause our atmosphere to become more unstable over the next coupe of days. The first in a series of upper level low pressure disturbances will move southwest to northeast over west Texas by later tonight into early tomorrow; As it does, atmospheric lift, low level moisture and atmospheric instability will combine to result in scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some stronger thunderstorms are possible mainly in areas west of the IH35 corridor, with hail and stronger straight line thunderstorm wind being the risk.

After the initial disturbance moves through the area by midday tomorrow, we’ll continue to see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms tomorrow night through Thursday, Friday and Friday night under a partly to mostly cloudy sky even though it is difficult to find an exact triggering mechanism other than daytime heating.

By Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and into early Sunday, another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will pass southwest to northeast over our area and will allow a surface cold front to move southeastward across the IH35 corridor by sunrise Sunday morning. Scattered to locally numerous rain showers and thunderstorms, including an attendant lightning risk, will be present over the area particularly after mid afternoon Saturday through midday Sunday. Periods of heavier rain are possible over the area.

The cold front will weaken Sunday through Monday along an east-west line to the south of the Austin metro area. As a result, although reduced, I will keep rain shower and thunderstorm chances going Sunday into the first part of next week.

Over the next seven days, the latest guidance suggests upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rain locally with isolated heavier amounts.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 16  May 2017

TODAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 90. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy after 9pm. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain in the morning decreasing to 30% for midday and afternoon; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 88. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly after 2pm with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a weak cold front moves southeastward through the area. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 83. Winds becoming light east northeasterly around daybreak.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy and a little cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 66. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 84. Light wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 23 May 2017 through Monday / 29 May 2017…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 May)……………………………………………. 6:36 am
Sunset this evening (16 May)……………………………………………… 8:19 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 May)………………………………………………… 6:35 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 May)…………………………………………………. 8:20 pm

by troyk | on May 12, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 12 May 2017

.. Drier with Plenty of Sun Through the Weekend ..
.. An Unsettled Weather Pattern Developing with Rain Chances Next Week …

On this Friday… a surface low pressure area is over central Arkansas with a cold front extending southwestward into east Texas to onshore along the Texas coast to near Eagle Pass then into northern Mexico and far southwest Texas. Surface high pressure is located behind the front over eastern Colorado and western Kansas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are north northwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a strong northeastward moving upper air low pressure disturbance is over Arkansas. Another eastward moving upper air low pressure disturbance is located along the Oregon and Washington coasts. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are west northwesterly 50 to 60 mph.

After the late afternoon thunderstorms (with some hail in northern and western parts of the Austin/IH35 corridor area) yesterday and isolated thunderstorms in the eastern areas after midnight as the cold front moved through, a drier and more stable weather pattern will prevail into the weekend with abundant sunshine. Nighttime low temperatures will be a bit cooler due to the dryness of the air.

As surface high pressure, in the wake of the front, moves east of the area by early Sunday, southerly surface winds will pick up over the area. Low level moisture will increase over the area with late night and early morning low clouds returning as early as Monday and Tuesday mornings.

By the middle into latter parts of next week, an approaching upper air low pressure and associated cold front will move slowly eastward through the western and southwestern USA parts of next week. I’ll introduce rain chances beginning Wednesday with rain and thunderstorm chances increasing even more by Thursday into Friday. Early guidance, from some of the computer models, suggests the possibility of severe thunderstorms and heavier rain for the latter part of next week for parts of Texas.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 12 May 2017

TODAY…. Sunny and less humid. High 85. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. A clear sky and a little cooler. Low 59. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 87. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 62. Light easterly wind becoming light and variable after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 89. Light winds becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph by midday.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 66. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 90. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy after midnight. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 89. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy after 10pm. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk mainly in the afternoon. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 88. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, at any given location, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 87.Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 19 May 2017 through Thursday / 25 May 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (12 May)……………………………………………. 6:39 am
Sunset this evening (12 May)……………………………………………… 8:16 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (13 May)………………………………………………… 6:38 am
Sunset tomorrow (13 May)…………………………………………………. 8:17 pm