Weather Discussion

by troyk | on Jun 22, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 22 June 2018

… Drier and More Stable Over the Next Seven Days …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… an weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the Missouri bootheel through central Arkansas to along the Red River then northwestward through the Texas panhandle into northeastern New Mexico. Surface high pressure is located over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are south southwesterly.

On the upper air map… a upper air low pressure disturbance is over central Illinois with a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southward into the Tennessee Valley. A ridge, or line, of upper air high pressure over the eastern Pacific extends eastward into northwestern Mexico and the southern southwestern USA. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are west northwesterly at 20 mph or less.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The atmosphere has become more stable over the last few days with decreased clouds and increased sunshine along with warmer afternoon temperatures.

This more stable weather pattern will continue through the weekend into much of next week with little or no chance of precipitation.

Have a good Friday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Friday / 22 June 2018

TODAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 95. South southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. A few clouds early with low clouds late. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 96. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 29 June 2018 through Thursday / 05 July 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (22 Jun)………………………………………… 6:30 am
Sunset this evening (22 Jun)………………………………………….. 8:36 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (23 Jun)…………………………………………….. 6:30 am
Sunset tomorrow (23 Jun)……………………………………………… 8:36 pm

by troyk | on Jun 20, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 20 June 2018

… Tropical Moisture Continues to Move Ashore of the Texas Coast …
… Turning Drier and More Stable Tomorrow Through the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… an weak area of low pressure is over south Texas. Surface high pressure is located well east of the area over the southeastern USA. A trough, or line, of low pressure extending southward from southeastern Colorado and western Kansas south southwestward through the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas and southward from there into northern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are easterly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southwestward from the intermountain west into the southwestern USA. A weak area of upper level low is noted over south Texas with a ridge, or line, of upper air high pressure over the southeastern USA. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are weak easterly less than 10 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The much advertised low pressure area is located over south Texas. As a result of it and its associated counterclockwise wind flow, it appears that another day of rainfall is due for much of south and south central Texas; in general, 1 inch of additional rain is expected with isolated heavier totals along the IH35 corridor and upwards of another 6 to 10 inches over parts of south Texas.

Temperatures will be a little below seasonal averages with the increased cloud cover and higher precipitation chances through today.

A drier and more stable weather pattern will likely unfold with increasing sunshine by tomorrow through the weekend. Temperatures will warm back to seasonal averages beginning tomorrow.

Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 20 June 2018

TODAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 86. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds then becoming partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 92. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 73. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 96. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 96. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 27 June 2018 through Tuesday / 03 July 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 Jun)………………………………………… 6:30 am
Sunset this evening (20 Jun)………………………………………….. 8:36 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (21 Jun)…………………………………………….. 6:30 am
Sunset tomorrow (21 Jun)……………………………………………… 8:36 pm

by troyk | on Jun 19, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 19 June 2018

… Slug of Tropical Moisture Moves Ashore of the Texas Coast …
… Periods of Heavy Rain Possible with 1 to 3 Inches of Rain Possible …
… Turning Drier and More Stable Thursday into the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… an area of low pressure is moving ashore onto the Texas coast from the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Surface high pressure is located well east of the area over the southeastern USA. A trough, or line, of low pressure extending southward from southeastern Colorado and western Kansas south southwestward through the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas and southward from there into northern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are easterly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southwestward from the intermountain west into the southwestern USA. An upper level low is noted over south Texas with a ridge, or line, of upper air high pressure over the southeastern USA. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are weak easterly less than 10 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The much advertised low pressure area is moving ashore onto the Texas coast. As a result, it appears that a beneficial rainfall is due for much of south and south central Texas over the coming days with, in general, 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated heavier totals along the IH35 corridor and upwards of 10 to 12 inches of rain along the middle Texas coast mainly between now and Thursday.

Temperatures will be a little below seasonal averages with the increased cloud cover and higher precipitation chances through midweek.

A drier and more stable weather pattern will likely unfold with increasing sunshine by late week into the weekend. Temperatures will warm back to seasonal averages.

Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 19 June 2018

TODAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and a few thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. Periods of heavier rain. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 85. Easterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/2 inch. Low 71. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and a few thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. Periods of heavier rain. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 85. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 88. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 74. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 91. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 92. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 94. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 94. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 26 June 2018 through Monday / 02 July 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 Jun)………………………………………… 6:29 am
Sunset this evening (19 Jun)………………………………………….. 8:35 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 Jun)…………………………………………….. 6:30 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 Jun)……………………………………………… 8:35 pm

by troyk | on Jun 18, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 18 June 2018

… Slug of Tropical Moisture Moves Ashore of the Texas Coast …
… Periods of Heavy Rain Possible with 1 to 3 Inches of Rain Possible …
… Drier and More Stable Late Week into the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… an area of low pressure is moving from the northwest Gulf of Mexico onto the Texas coast. Surface high pressure is located well east of the area over the southeastern USA. A trough, or line, of low pressure extending southward from southeastern Colorado and western Kansas south southwestward through the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas and southward from there into northern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are easterly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southwestward from the intermountain west into the southwestern USA. An upper level low is noted over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a ridge, or line, of upper air high pressure over the southeastern USA. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are weak easterly less than 15 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The much advertised low pressure area over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is moving northwestward onto te Texas coast as we start the new week. While computer guidance is still not exactly consistent, it appears that a beneficial rainfall is due for much of south and south central Texas over the coming days with, in general, 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated heavier totals along the IH35 corridor and upwards of 10 to 12 inches of rain along the middle Texas coast.

Temperatures will be a little below seasonal averages with the increased cloud cover and higher precipitation chances through midweek.

A drier and more stable weather pattern will likely unfold with increasing sunshine by late week into the weekend. Temperatures will warm back to seasonal averages.

Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Monday / 18 June 2018

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 90. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 72. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and a few thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. Periods of heavier rain. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 85. Easterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/2 inch. Low 71. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and a few thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. Periods of heavier rain. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 85. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 88. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 74. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 91. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 92. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 94. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 25 June 2018 through Sunday / 01 July 2018…
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 Jun)………………………………………… 6:29 am
Sunset this evening (18 Jun)………………………………………….. 8:35 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 Jun)…………………………………………….. 6:29 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 Jun)……………………………………………… 8:35 pm

by troyk | on Jun 08, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 08 June 2018

… The Dry Weather Pattern Continues …
… Little Change Over the Next Seven Days …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… high pressure is situated to the east of our area over the lower Mississippi Valley with a trough, or line, of low pressure extending southward from eastern Colorado and western Kansas south southwestward through eastern New Mexico and west Texas and southward from there into far southwest Texas and northern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are south southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southeastward from east of Hudson Bay into the northeastern USA and the western Atlantic Ocean basin. Another trough extends southward from offshore of British Columbia to off the west coast of the USA. A ridge, or line, of upper air high pressure extends north northeastward from northern Mexico into western Texas and western Oklahoma. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northwesterly around 15 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

While longer range forecast guidance continues to suggest that upper level high pressure will hold strong overhead resulting in a dry weather pattern, it may not be quite as strong into early next week. Afternoon highs will continue to be well above seasonal averages but not quite as hot as they were earlier this week.

Based upon the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, little to no rainfall is expected over the next seven days.

Have a good Friday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Friday / 08 June 2018

TODAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 15 June 2018 through Thursday / 21 June 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (08 Jun)………………………………………… 6:29 am
Sunset this evening (08 Jun)………………………………………….. 8:32 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (09 Jun)…………………………………………….. 6:29 am
Sunset tomorrow (09 Jun)……………………………………………… 8:32 pm