Special Briefings

TK’s Special Briefing….

by troyk | on Dec 23, 2013 | Comments Off

This is where I will post information during periods of severe/inclement weather.. tk

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If you have a smart phone (iPhone, Android), I strongly recommend the use of the MyWarn App.. which operates in the background of your phone to let you know when there’s a general “heads up” risk of severe thunderstorms and/or tornadoes (day 1 and day 2 outlooks from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK). As the risk becomes more immediate and tornado and severe thunderstorm watches from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center and flash flood watches from the NWS/Austin-San Antonio become necessary, you’ll be notified. Finally, when the weather becomes an imminent and urgent threat to life and to property and tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings are issued from the NWS/Austin-San Antonio, you’ll be the first to know through this app whether you’re at your home or on the road in the USA. The GPS location feature of your phone tells the app where you are and you’re notified immediately whether you’re in Austin or Chicago.  All the details can be found here.

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TK’s Special Briefing….

by troyk | on Dec 21, 2013 | Comments Off

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If you have a smart phone (iPhone, Android), I strongly recommend the use of the MyWarn App.. which operates in the background of your phone to let you know when there’s a general “heads up” risk of severe thunderstorms and/or tornadoes (day 1 and day 2 outlooks from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK). As the risk becomes more immediate and tornado and severe thunderstorm watches from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center and flash flood watches from the NWS/Austin-San Antonio become necessary, you’ll be notified. Finally, when the weather becomes an imminent and urgent threat to life and to property and tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings are issued from the NWS/Austin-San Antonio, you’ll be the first to know through this app whether you’re at your home or on the road in the USA. The GPS location feature of your phone tells the app where you are and you’re notified immediately whether you’re in Austin or Chicago.  All the details can be found here.

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Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #3 – FINAL UPDATE
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
315pm CT – Saturday / 21 December 2013

.. Skies Clearing Across the IH35 Corridor ..

The upper air low pressure area continues to move northeastward across the Texas south plains
as drier and more stable air settles south southeastward across our IH35 corridor counties.

As skies clear, the threat of precipitation has ended.

This is my last statement regarding this weather event.

Have a great remainder of your weekend… a Merry Christmas and to all, happy holidays.

tk

TK’s Special Briefing….

by troyk | on Dec 21, 2013 | Comments Off

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If you have a smart phone (iPhone, Android), I strongly recommend the use of the MyWarn App.. which operates in the background of your phone to let you know when there’s a general “heads up” risk of severe thunderstorms and/or tornadoes (day 1 and day 2 outlooks from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK). As the risk becomes more immediate and tornado and severe thunderstorm watches from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center and flash flood watches from the NWS/Austin-San Antonio become necessary, you’ll be notified. Finally, when the weather becomes an imminent and urgent threat to life and to property and tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings are issued from the NWS/Austin-San Antonio, you’ll be the first to know through this app whether you’re at your home or on the road in the USA. The GPS location feature of your phone tells the app where you are and you’re notified immediately whether you’re in Austin or Chicago.  All the details can be found here.

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Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
245am CT – Saturday / 21 December 2013

.. Cold Front Sliding Through the Austin Metro Area .. Earlier Than Expected ..
.. Light Rain and Rain Showers Continue Across the Area ..

At 245am.. a strong cold front has oozed southeastward  into the Austin metro area
and the IH35 corridor counties. Utilizing the LCRA hydromet system…
http://hydromet.lcra.org/full.aspx … we find the cold front extending southwestward from
near McDade and Elgin in northern Bastrop county to just north of the downtown area
of Austin to between Wimberley and Dripping Springs in Hays County to south of
Blanco in southern Blanco County. At 250am, the temperature at ABIA is 70 degrees
while temperatures out near Lake Travis in western Travis County are in the lower
to middle 40s.

The sheer weight of the shallow wedge of colder air at the surface has allowed it to
come further southward  than I would have expected.. especially with the upper air low
pressure storm system still well to the west just west of El Paso over far west Texas.
This is a phenomena that is not that unusual since atmospheric computer forecast models
have a real difficulty resolving the southward movement of shallow wedge of colder air
like this especially when dealing with upper level storm systems still to the west.

The colder surface air moving into the area will reduce the possibility of severe weather
although hail could still remain a threat where stronger thunderstorms develop and become
rooted in the warmer air just above the shallow wedge of colder air through the morning
hours this Saturday. As the morning progresses, the real severe weather risk will develop
in areas to our distant east and northeast as depicted in the NWS/Storm Prediction Center’s
day 1 severe weather outlook (which becomes valid a 6am CT this morning)…

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

At 245am, thunderstorms are currently indicated.. back over the colder air..  between Brady
and Mason out to the west of our area with lighter rain and rain showers through much of the
Austin and IH35 corridor areas.

In summary.. rainfall of 1/2 inch, with isolated heavier totals,  could occur over our area along
with some hail and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning with any thunderstorms that manage to
develop or to move into the area today before precipitation tapers off by midday into afternoon
as the best atmospheric lift and instability associated with the upper level low pressure
disturbance moves east and north of the area.

Any significant weather reports (hail, wind, thunderstorms), please provide those to me via
email and I’ll forward to the NWS.

I’ll continue to monitor…

tk

TK’s Special Briefing….

by troyk | on Dec 20, 2013 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Special Weather Briefing #1
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
530pm CT – Friday / 20 December 2013

… “Slight” Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Late Tonight into Saturday Morning…
… Upper Air Storm System and Associated Cold Front To Move Across Texas …

.. Synoptic / Forecast Discussion …
Late this Friday afternoon… warm, moist surface air continues to move northward across our
area on the heels of a moderate south southeasterly wind. A strong cold front has moved
very slowly south southeastward to just east of Paris, TX to north of Waco TX and to south
of San Angelo. Temperatures are in the 70s ahead of the front (70 in Waco) with
temperatures falling into the 40s and 30s behind the front (36 in Abilene).

Most importantly, a vigorous upper level low pressure disturbance/storm system is located
near Tucson, AZ and is moving eastward. As it continues to move eastward, with very cold
temperatures aloft, our atmosphere is quickly becoming more unstable with atmospheric
lift increasing as well. As it moves eastward, the cold front to our north should slow in its
southward movement as scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms develop
to our west and march eastward.

By later tonight into the day Saturday, as the disturbance moves west-to-east north of our
area, the cold front will surge southeastward with a line of rain showers and stronger thunderstorms
building on the front. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed our area in a “slight”
risk area for severe thunderstorms for the 9pm to 9am time period tonight into Saturday morning
as atmospheric lift and instability is maximized.  Here is a link to the SPC day one severe weather
outlook (valid now through 6am Saturday)..
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Here is the link to the SPC day two severe weather outlook (valid 6am Saturday to 6am Sunday)..
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

The risk in our part of the outlook area is larger hail along with the possibility of strong
straight line thunderstorm wind. Rainfall amounts locally will be beneficial with 1/2″ to 1″
totals possible with isolated heavier amounts.

Once the upper air system passes off to our northeast and the surface cold front passes
through our area tomorrow, the threat of severe weather will end quickly with clouds and
post frontal precipitation lingering through tomorrow afternoon.

… ABIA Interests …

Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will develop around and/or move through
the area.. including the ABIA aerodrome.. later tonight into the predawn hours Saturday. Frequent
deadly cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms that develop and/or move into
the area with NWS issued airport weather warnings likely by late tonight into the morning hours
Saturday. There is also a “slight” risk of severe thunderstorms with larger hail and strong straight
line thunderstorm winds possible. The threat of severe weather and thunderstorms will end with the
wind shift to the west by tomorrow morning into midday.

DFW/DAL aerodromes will be affected by this storm system, with possible delays and diversions,
later tonight and perhaps for the morning hours Saturday. IAH/HOU aerodromes will be affected
by this system primarily tomorrow into tomorrow night with possible delays and diversions.

Here is the current KAUS Terminal Forecast (TAF) as issued by NWS/Austin-San Antonio
at 1pm CT today…

FTUS44 KEWX 201900 AAB
TAFAUS
TAF AMD
KAUS 201928Z 2019/2124 17010KT P6SM SCT015 BKN035
      TEMPO 2019/2022 BKN015
     FM210200 15013KT P6SM OVC009
     FM210600 17015G22KT P6SM OVC012
      TEMPO 2111/2115 4SM TSRA OVC009CB
     FM211500 22012KT P6SM -SHRA BKN025
     FM211800 24015KT P6SM BKN035=

I’ll continue to keep you informed on this weather event as it unfolds.

tk

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If you have a smart phone (iPhone, Android), I strongly recommend the use of the MyWarn App.. which operates in the background of your phone to let you know when there’s a general “heads up” risk of severe thunderstorms and/or tornadoes (day 1 and day 2 outlooks from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK). As the risk becomes more immediate and tornado and severe thunderstorm watches from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center and flash flood watches from the NWS/Austin-San Antonio become necessary, you’ll be notified. Finally, when the weather becomes an imminent and urgent threat to life and to property and tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings are issued from the NWS/Austin-San Antonio, you’ll be the first to know through this app whether you’re at your home or on the road in the USA. The GPS location feature of your phone tells the app where you are and you’re notified immediately whether you’re in Austin or Chicago.  All the details can be found here.

TK’s Special Briefing….

by troyk | on Dec 20, 2013 | Comments Off

This is where I will post special updates during periods of severe and/or inclement weather.

***

If you have a smart phone (iPhone, Android), I strongly recommend the use of the MyWarn App.. which operates in the background of your phone to let you know when there’s a general “heads up” risk of severe thunderstorms and/or tornadoes (day 1 and day 2 outlooks from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK). As the risk becomes more immediate and tornado and severe thunderstorm watches from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center and flash flood watches from the NWS/Austin-San Antonio become necessary, you’ll be notified. Finally, when the weather becomes an imminent and urgent threat to life and to property and tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings are issued from the NWS/Austin-San Antonio, you’ll be the first to know through this app whether you’re at your home or on the road in the USA. The GPS location feature of your phone tells the app where you are and you’re notified immediately whether you’re in Austin or Chicago.  All the details can be found here.