Special Briefings

by troyk | on Apr 06, 2018 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
835am CT – Friday / 06 April 2018

.. A Few Stronger Thunderstorms Possible Along Strong Cold Front Later Today into Tonight  ..
.. The Biggest Part of This Weather Story May Be the Much Cooler Temperatures on the Way ..

Primary Hazards Expected and Time Periods (My Confidence) …
…. Frequent Dangerous Cloud to Ground Lightning …. (High to Very High Confidence)
…. Larger Hail Threat Mainly Northeast of Austin Metro …. (Low to Moderate Confidence)
…. Strong Straight Line Thunderstorm Wind Threat
Mainly Northeast of Austin Metro …. (Low to Moderate Confidence)

Current NWS Watches / Advisories / Warnings ….
There are no current NWS watches, advisories and/or warnings in effect for our IH35 corridor counties..
A severe weather (tornado or severe thunderstorm) watch is possible later today into tonight in the counties mainly to our northeast.

Weather Discussion ….

I had to think about whether or not I was going to issue this update; this is a borderline case for severe thunderstorms, I think, for the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor counties. The most significant risk of severe thunderstorms, based on the latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance, is going to be to our distant northeast mainly over the Ark-La-Tex region centered on the Tyler, Longview, Texarkana, Shreveport, LA, Monroe, LA, Jackson, MS corridor area.

An upper air low pressure disturbance, now moving through the southwestern USA, will move eastward across the southern plains and accompanied at the surface by a strong cold front that will pass through the IH35 corridor between 7pm and 11pm tonight. As the surface front and upper air disturbance approaches, we’ll see increased atmospheric instability and atmospheric lift with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing in advance of the weather system.

Given the fairly progressive, or fast moving, nature of the front and upper air disturbance, I think rainfall amounts at any given location will be limited to 1/4″ or less.

The threat of stronger thunderstorms will end rapidly as the cold front passes between 7pm and 11pm tonight. This may actually be the biggest part of this weather story given the fact that clouds will be a bit slower to clear tomorrow with high temperatures between 20 and 30 degrees cooler than today. Overnight lows tonight, in the wake of the front, as well as tomorrow night will fall into the 40s to near 50.

Along with increased sunshine, a warmup begins Sunday as surface high pressure moves east of the area and a south southeasterly surface wind returns to our area.

Aviation Weather Information for the
Austin Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) Aerodrome and Associated Hubs ….
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will affect the KAUS aerodrome in the period from late afternoon to about 11pm tonight. Rain probabilities peak in the mid evening hours tonight at around 50%. Precipitation will end quickly following the cold front passage which should occur in the 7pm to 11pm time frame. Gusty northerly winds will spread into the area in the wake of the front with low clouds lingering through the overnight hours and into tomorrow.

Likelihood of Commercial Hub Diversions/Reroutes..

DAL/DFW Aerodromes and ZFW Airspace..
Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected in the DFW/DAL area between early/mid afternoon today and early evening tonight.. some stronger thunderstorms are possible with larger hail and damaging thunderstorm wind. Precipitation chances increase from 30% in the afternoon to 60% for the evening hours before decreasing after the cold front passes Friday evening.
Some diversions are likely and flight reroutes in ZFW center air space likely in the late afternoon into evening hours during the time the front is passing.

HOU/IAH Aerodromes and ZHU Airspace..

Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected in the IAH/HOU area between late afternoon today and 5am Saturday morning.. isolated severe thunderstorms are possible with larger hail and damaging thunderstorm wind. Precipitation chances increase from 20% in the afternoon to 60% for the nighttime hours before decreasing after the cold front passes in the predawn hours Saturday morning.
Some diversions are likely and flight reroutes in ZHU center air space likely in the evening into nighttime hours up until the time the front passes.

Current KAUS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) – Issued 061120z ..

FTUS44 KEWX 061120
 TAFAUS
 TAF
 KAUS 061120Z 0612/0718 17010KT P6SM OVC009
      FM061600 19016KT P6SM OVC015
      FM061900 18017KT P6SM BKN035
      FM070000 17009KT P6SM BKN200
      FM070400 16010KT P6SM VCTS BKN050CB
      FM070600 36015G25KT P6SM BKN008==

Current FAA National Airspace Status

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:

I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf
to the National Weather Service, please let me know at tkimmel@troykimmelweather.com

GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:

NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center

by troyk | on Apr 04, 2018 | Comments Off

===================

This is where I place special briefings during periods of severe and/or inclement weather.

There is no threat for Austin and south central Texas from severe and/or inclement weather at this time.

===================

by troyk | on Apr 03, 2018 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #5
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
850pm CT – Tuesday / 03 April 2018

… Severe Thunderstorm Watch Cancelled for the IH35 Corridor and the Austin Metro Area …
… Cold Front has Moved Southward Through the Area …

At 845pm, the cold front has passed southward through the Austin area and, as predicted, has ended the risk of severe thunderstorms.

Unfortunately, a rain cooled boundary ahead of the front undercut the developing thunderstorms we saw trying to build earlier and that combined with some more stable air aloft to keep most areas dry as the front pushed southeastward over the area. There was no severe weather in the late
afternoon and evening hours with the severe thunderstorm watch being cancelled by the NWS at 802pm.

This is my last statement on this weather event.

tk

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #4
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
555pm CT – Tuesday / 03 April 2018

… Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued for the Austin Metro Area and the IH35 Corridor Until 12 Midnight (Main Risk for Our Area will Exist Only into the 8pm Hour when the Cold Front Moves Through the Area and the Severe Weather Risk Will End) …

… Main Risks: Large Hail.. Damaging Thunderstorm Winds as well as Frequent Dangerous Cloud-to-Ground Lightning …

2018.0403.2250z.SVRTstormWatch 29.DZ5JlNiX4AA7eeW

Continuing to Monitor…

tk

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1045am CT – Tuesday / 03 April 2018

… Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued for Williamson County and Counties Westward Until  600pm …

This issuance is for thunderstorms forming in advance of an upper air low pressure disturbance over southwest Texas. These thunderstorms are moving northeastward.

The cold front is still back over the Texas Panhandle and will not move through our area until sometime this evening with another line or area of thunderstorms moving through out area.

Continuing to monitor…

tk

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
720am CT – Tuesday / 03 April 2018

.. Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Later Today into this Evening with Passing Cold Front ..

Hazards Expected for the Area (and Time Periods) …
.. Larger hail, damaging straight line wind threat and a very slim tornado threat 12 noon today to 8pm tonight ..
.. Due to the progressive (quick moving) nature of the system, rainfall should average 1/4 inch or less with some isolated heavier totals. I do not anticipate any flood problems.. other than some brief urban issues as the thunderstorms move through.. with this system.

Current NWS Watches / Advisories / Warnings ….
There are no current NWS watches, advisories and/or warnings in effect for our IH35 corridor counties..
I think that it is likely that a severe weather watch will be needed at some point later this afternoon or early tonight for our IH35 corridor counties.

Weather Discussion ….
A strong upper level low pressure disturbance and associated surface cold front will move across our area by the dinner hour this evening. The atmosphere, ahead of the upper air disturbance/front, will become unstable and will be sufficiently moist for scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms to develop. The latest high resolution model guidance suggests a few thunderstorms develop in advance of the front in the northern
parts of our area as early as midday into early afternoon today.. these thunderstorms, in advance of the front, could be severe with a large hail and damaging wind threat. More widespread rain showers and thunderstorms.. likely in a line formation ahead of the front.. will develop after 4pm and will sweep east southeastward just in advance of the front by the dinner hour. The cold front will move through the area by 9pm today with the risk of severe
weather hazards ending.

Aviation Weather Information for the
Austin Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) Aerodrome and Associated Hubs ….
Rain showers and thunderstorms will increase by late afternoon into early this evening as a cold front crosses the area. NWS/Austin-San Antonio issued Airport Weather Warnings are likely in the 4pm to 8pm time period with the cold front forecast to cross the Austin Bergstrom International Airport aerodrome by 9pm tonight…

Likelihood of Commercial Hub Diversions/Reroutes..
DAL/DFW Aerodromes and ZFW Airspace.. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms (a 20% chance of rain) are possible today as the cold front moves across the north Texas aerodromes by mid afternoon.
HOU/IAH Aerodromes and ZHU Airspace.. Rain showers and thunderstorms become likely over the area by late afternoon into tonight (a 40% chance of rain later today increasing to 90% by evening/nighttime hours) with severe thunderstorms possible. Some reroutes and diversions are possible especially this evening into the nighttime hours before the cold front completes its
movement through the southeast Texas area by late tonight.

Current KAUS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) – Issued 031140z ..

TAFAUS
 TAF
 KAUS 031140Z 0312/0418 17012KT P6SM SCT015
       TEMPO 0312/0316 BKN015
      FM031800 19012KT P6SM VCTS OVC015CB
      FM032300 01013KT P6SM VCTS OVC030CB
       TEMPO 0400/0403 4SM TSRA
      FM040700 01015G25KT P6SM OVC050=

Current FAA National Airspace Status

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:

I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf to the National Weather Service, please let me know at tkimmel@troykimmelweather.com

GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:

NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center

tk

by troyk | on Mar 29, 2018 | Comments Off

This is where I post special updates during periods of severe and/or inclement weather.

There is no risk of severe and/or inclement weather at this time.

by troyk | on Mar 28, 2018 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #4  (Last Update)
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
230pm CT – Wednesday / 28 March 2018

.. Rain Chances Decrease Into Tonight As Upper Level Low Completes Its Move Across Texas ..
.. NWS Austin-San Antonio Issued Flash Flood Watch Continues Until 7pm …

At mid afternoon.. the complex of rain showers and thunderstorms.. that moved through our
area in the late morning into midday time period.. has now moved east of the area and extends
from northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex southwestward to west of Victoria and the middle Texas
coastal plains. It continues to move eastward.

We still need to be watching for some additional rain shower and even isolated thunderstorm development
since we still have about 12 hours until the upper level trough actually crosses overhead and moves east of the area.
However, being in the rain cooled more stable surface air, I feel like the severe thunderstorm risk as well
as the heavier rain risk has ended locally. As a result, this will be my last statement on this weather event.


At our first order climate and airport weather stations in the IH35 corridor areas since midnight…
Austin Bergstrom International Airport…. 5.83″ (breaks previous daily rainfall record of 1.86″ on this date back in 2006)
Austin City / Camp Mabry ANG… 3.20″ (record for today is 3.26″ back on this date in 2006 – not broken at this point)
Austin Executive Airport / East of Toll Road in Pflugerville… 3.66″
Georgetown Municipal Airport…. 2.23″
San Marcos Regional Airport…. 3.40″
Lago Vista Rusty Allen Airport…. 1.61″

tk