Special Briefings

by troyk | on Jan 17, 2018 | Comments Off

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This is where I place special updates when there is a threat of severe/inclement weather.

At this time, there is no severe / inclement weather anticipated.

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by troyk | on Jan 16, 2018 | Comments Off

…. 345pm Weather Update (Final Update) ….

…. Some Icing Problems Continue Over The Area …. Use Caution ….
…. Little If Any Additional Precipitation Expected ….

As the upper air low pressure disturbance, as expected, continues to move eastward, we’re seeing precipitation continue to move eastward.. now well out of the IH35 corridor counties. A very light snow flurry or two is possible later this afternoon, but otherwise,
little of any precipitation is expected. As a result, this is my final statement on this winter weather event.

Keep in mind, though, hazardous/dangerous conditions continue to be reported in some areas; there are still some bridges/overpasses and flyovers on Austin and south central Texas area roadways with patchy residual ice. Some of these are closed. On behalf of our law enforcement and fire responder partners, I continue to ask that you not be out unless
absolutely necessary.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has replaced the WINTER STORM WARNING  and is in effect for our IH35 counties until 9pm tonight. Even though little if any additional precipitation is expected, those icy spots will continue through the evening and overnight hours into the first half of the day tomorrow when temperatures will finally get back above freezing by 12 noon tomorrow.

This is my final update on this winter weather event.

tk

…. 1200 noon Weather Update ….

…. Some Icing Problems Continue Over The Area …. Use Caution ….
…. Precipitation Chances Decreasing ….

Well, it did not get that much worse with the mid and late morning precipitation due to the dryness of the lower parts of the atmosphere. That’s the good news.. the bad news is that some bridges/overpasses/flyovers continue icy with icy spots on less traveled surface roadways and sidewalks as well. NWS Doppler weather radar still indicates a few patches of sleet, light freezing rain and light snow across the area. However, the radar trend
has been on decreasing trend and I am thinking that the precipitation will be tapering off northwest to southeast mainly as light sleet and light flurries over the next few hours with little additional accumulation for our Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor counties (Hays, Williamson and Travis).

At 1200 noon… hazardous/dangerous conditions continue to be reported in some areas; there are still some bridges/overpasses and flyovers on Austin area roadways are being described as icy by area law enforcement officials. Some of these are closed. On behalf of our law enforcement and fire responder partners, I continue to ask you NOT to be on the roadways unless absolutely necessary.

Some of the weather conditions/temperatures at 12 noon across the IH35 corridor:
Austin Bergstrom International Airport…. Cloudy w/light ice pellets (sleet)…. 26 F
Austin Camp Mabry…. Cloudy…. 27 F
Austin Great Hills NWS Coop Station…. Cloudy…. 25 F
Austin Executive Airport (Along SH130 / Pflugerville)…. Cloudy…. 25 F
Georgetown Airport…. Cloudy…. 26 F
Lago Vista Airport…. Cloudy…. 25 F
San Marcos Airport…. Cloudy…. 26 F

A reminder… A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6PM TONIGHT… a few periods of  light sleet and snow flurries possible possible into early/mid afternoon hours today. Little or no additional new accumulation. Icy spots will continue through the afternoon through tonight into the first half of the day tomorrow when temperatures will finally get back
above freezing.

tk

…. 845am Weather Update ….

…. Weather Conditions Deteriorate Over the Next Few Hours ….
…. Icing Problems Will Worsen in Next Few Hours ….

NWS Doppler weather radar indicates to light to moderate freezing rain.. sleet and some snow spreading back into the Austin metro area from the west southwest. Moderate freezing rain with surface sidewalks and roadways becoming icy reported in the Kyle area south of Austin. Based on what I am seeing now, the situation will worsen over the next couple of hours in the Austin metro area and especially in areas to the south.

At 830am… hazardous/dangerous conditions continue to be reported; many of the bridges/overpasses and flyovers on Austin area roadways are being described as icy by the Austin Police Department, Travis County Sheriffs Office and other area law enforcement officials. Many of these have been closed. On behalf of our law enforcement and fire responder partners, we ask you NOT to be on the roadways unless absolutely necessary!

Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s at this time with some light freezing rain and sleet being reported in the area .

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6PM… periods of light freezing rain, sleet and snow possible possible through midday with conditions worsening..

tk

—-

…. 600am Weather Update ….

At 600am… hazardous/dangerous conditions increasingly being reported; many of the bridges/overpasses and flyovers on Austin area roadways are being described as icy by the Austin Police Department, Travis County Sheriffs Office and other area law enforcement officials who are in the process of trying to close the ramps. On behalf of our law enforcement and fire responder partners, we ask you NOT to be on the roadways
unless absolutely necessary!

Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s at this time with some light freezing rain and sleet being reported in the area .

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6PM… periods of light freezing rain, sleet and snow possible possible through midday with conditions worsening..

tk

 

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #7
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
750pm CT – Monday / 15  January 2018

… WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCLUDING
THE AUSTIN METRO AREA AND THE ENTIRE IH35 CORRIDOR EFFECTIVE AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6PM TOMORROW

.. Not Much Change in My Forecast Thought ..
.. Ice / Sleet / Snow Accumulations Likely After Midnight Tonight and Continuing through Midday Tomorrow ..

On this Monday evening, the arctic air mass has advanced southward into central Texas with the front just passing through the Waco area where the temperatures have fallen from near 60F to the mid 40s
over the past hour and a half. The freezing line is moving southward along the Red River now and will pass over the DFW metroplex in the next few hours. The arctic air mass is still forecast to move
southward into our area by later tonight between 10 and 11pm. As advertised, an upper air low pressure disturbance is poised to  track eastward over our area later tonight through the first half of the day tomorrow… already light rain showers have developed in advance of this feature over parts of Travis..
Williamson and Milam counties here in the 7pm hour. Short range high resolution model guidance indicates that this precipitation will linger over the area for as much as 12 to 14 hours after the frontal passage as moisture overruns the much colder surface air as it moves into and deepens over our area.

Surface temperatures, following the cold frontal passage, will fall into the 30s quickly with freezing temperatures likely by 2 to 3am tomorrow morning then into the upper 20s by daybreak with daytime highs tomorrow, with the associated cloud cover,  staying primarily in the upper 20s to near 30 with a
strong northerly wind and impressive wind chill in the teens to near 20 degrees.

As temperatures fall following the frontal passage later tonight, any precipitation that is occurring locally would transition over to freezing rain, freezing drizzle and sleet (ice pellets) as we get to the 3am to 4am hour
tomorrow morning. As the atmospheric column aloft continues to cool in the 6am to 9am hour tomorrow morning, although we could continue to see some freezing drizzle/freezing rain, I am thinking that we’ll see precipitation  transition over to a little more sleet (ice pellets) and light snow by mid and late morning before the precipitation tapers off. Ice accumulations will average up to a tenth of an inch with isolated totals to near one quarter inch with additional dusting of sleet (ice pellets) and snow accumulation possible
on top of this. After 3am to 4am tomorrow morning, temperatures will likely remain below freezing tomorrow and tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. As a result, hazardous/dangerous road conditions will result
throughout the IH35 corridor and south central Texas for the period from about 3am tomorrow morning through tomorrow and tomorrow night even into Wednesday late morning hours given this forecast scenario.

.. Update on Wednesday Night/Thursday Winter Weather Potential ..
At this point, the models have tended to pull away from the potential winter weather potential for late Wednesday night into Thursday. However, I will continue to monitor.

At this point locally, regarding the system tonight into tomorrow, my forecast confidence regarding the arrival of the much colder air continues to be very high.. with very high confidence that precipitation will occur.
However, being able to forecast exact precipitation type, at any given time in the forecast, is a lower confidence proposition although I have very high confidence that we’ll see overall freezing/frozen precipitation locally.
Please keep in mind, as with any winter weather episode around here, that the timing of the individual ingredients (of colder air arrival, atmospheric column temperatures aloft and the arrival and departure of the upper air disturbance) is critical important when you consider timing in the forecast given this winter weather event for south central Texas. In other words, if one of our ingredients or timing changes, the forecast can and will change.

In the early morning into midday hours tomorrow, I would appreciate any storm reports (freezing or frozen precipitation, icy bridges, etc) from throughout the area and I’ll forward those reports on your behalf to the
NWS Austin-San Antonio… please send them to me at troy@troykimmelweather.com.
Remember, include your exact location (city, county, cross streets if possible) and the exact time that the weather phenomena is observed. Below is an example from elsewhere around the country tonight of storm reports that the NWS prepares and the detail that they require (they can get lat/long based on your cross street location so you don’t have to worry about that)..

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     SNOW             OWENSBORO               37.76N 87.12W 
01/15/2018  M5.0 INCH        DAVIESS            KY   PUBLIC          

            MEASURED 5 INCH SNOW DEPTH

0645 PM     FREEZING RAIN    8 ENE BEAUFORT          34.77N 76.52W 
01/15/2018  E0.10 INCH       CARTERET           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA 

            GLAZE REPORTED ON CARS IN MARSHALLBERG


Thanks.. be careful out there and stay warm (when it turns colder!!).

I’ll continue to keep you informed… tk

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:

I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf
to the National Weather Service, please let me know at tkimmel@troykimmelweather.com

GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:

NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center

by troyk | on Jan 15, 2018 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #6
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
735am CT – Monday / 15  January 2018

… UPDATE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING …

.. NWS Issued Winter Storm Warning for all of South Central Texas from 12 Midnight Tonight
Until 6PM Tomorrow (Tuesday) …
.. Ice / Sleet / Snow Accumulations Likely Monday Night Through Tuesday ..

On this Monday morning, the arctic air mass has advanced southward into northwest Texas and
northern Oklahoma. The arctic air mass is forecast to move southward into our area by late tonight
into Tuesday. After a brief warm up today with highs in the 60s, we’ll see northerly winds increase
and temperatures fall following the surface cold frontal passage which I am expecting in the 8pm to
11pm time period tonight for the IH35 corridor. In the hours before and around the forecast time
of the surface cold frontal passage, an upper air low pressure disturbance is forecast to track
eastward over our area with clouds picking up today with light rain and drizzle starting sometime
around the dinner hour with the precipitation persisting as the front passes and continuing as much
as 18 hours after the frontal passage as moisture overruns the much colder surface air moving into
the area.

Surface temperatures, following the cold frontal passage, will fall into the 30s quickly with freezing
temperatures likely by 1am tomorrow morning then into the mid to upper 20s by daybreak with
daytime highs on Tuesday (with the associated cloud cover) staying primarily in the 20s with a strong
northerly wind and impressive wind chill in the low to mid teens.

As temperatures fall following the frontal passage, any precipitation that is occurring locally would
transition over to freezing rain, freezing drizzle and sleet (ice pellets) as we make our way into
post midnight hours tonight/tomorrow morning. As the atmospheric column aloft continues to cool,
although we will see some freezing drizzle/freezing rain beginning by 1am to 2am tomorrow morning, I still
think that precipitation would transition over to a little more sleet (ice pellets) and light snow after daybreak
tomorrow that will continue through day tomorrow. Ice accumulations will average a tenth to one quarter
inch with additional sleet (ice pellets) and snow accumulation possible on top of this. As mentioned above,
temperatures will likely fall below freezing by a little after midnight tonight and remain below freezing
tomorrow and tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. As a result, hazardous/dangerous road conditions
will result throughout the IH35 corridor and south central Texas for the period from shortly after midnight
tonight through tomorrow and tomorrow night into Wednesday morning given this forecast scenario.

As it appears now, any precipitation associated with this first passing disturbance will end, with the departure of
the disturbance, by tomorrow night into Wednesday. Clouds may break a bit on Wednesday.

However, another secondary upper air low pressure disturbance is now seen in the Wednesday night into Thursday
time period with clouds increasing and precipitation chances returning for the period. Current thinking is
that we could see some freezing rain, freezing drizzle, sleet (ice pellets) and snow once again but timing and
amounts as well as exact temperature profiles are uncertain and forecast confidence is lower particularly with
exact surface temperatures and precipitation type. Temperatures during the day Thursday will rise above freezing
by mid to late morning.

At this point locally, regarding the initial system tonight into tomorrow, my forecast confidence regarding the
arrival of the much colder air continues to be very high (although it could trend a few degrees colder) with high to
very high confidence that precipitation will occur. However, being able to forecast exact precipitation type, at any
given time in the forecast, is a lower confidence proposition although I have very high confidence that we’ll see
overall freezing/frozen precipitation locally. As with any winter weather episode around here, please understand
that the timing of the individual ingredients (of colder air arrival, atmospheric column temperatures aloft and the
upper air disturbance) is indeed everything when you consider the forecast given this potential winter weather
event for south central Texas. In other words, if one of our ingredients or timing changes, the forecast can and
will change
.

I’ll continue to keep you advised on both of these potential winter weather events.

tk

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:

I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf
to the National Weather Service, please let me know at tkimmel@troykimmelweather.com

GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:

NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center

by troyk | on Jan 14, 2018 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #5
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
325pm CT – Sunday / 14 January 2018

.. Confidence Increasing on Potential Winter Weather Event Late Tomorrow
Night into Tuesday .. NWS Issued Winter Storm Watch Now In Effect for all of South Central
Texas Late Tomorrow Night through Tuesday Evening …
.. Now Monitoring a Secondary Disturbance Wednesday Night into Thursday with
Renewed Possible Winter Weather Threat ..
.. Ice / Sleet / Snow Accumulations Now Likely Monday Night Through Tuesday ..

On this Sunday afternoon, I continue to watch an arctic air mass that is forecast to move
southward into our area by late tomorrow night into Tuesday. After a brief warm up tomorrow
(highs now forecast into the lower 60s), we’ll see northerly winds increase and temperatures fall
rapidly following the surface cold frontal passage which I am expecting in the 9pm to 12 midnight
time period tomorrow night for the IH35 corridor. In the hours before and around the forecast time
of the surface cold frontal passage, an upper air low pressure disturbance is forecast to track
eastward over our area with clouds picking up late in the afternoon tomorrow with light rain and
drizzle starting sometime around the dinner hour with the precipitation persisting as the front
passes and continuing as much as 24 hours after the frontal passage as moisture overruns the much
colder surface air moving into the area.

Surface temperatures, following the cold frontal passage, will fall into the 30s quickly with freezing
temperatures likely by 1am to 3am Tuesday morning then into the mid to upper 20s by daybreak with
daytime highs on Tuesday (with the associated cloud cover) staying primarily in the 20s with a strong
northerly wind and impressive wind chill in the low to mid teens.

As temperatures fall following the frontal passage, any precipitation that is occurring locally
would transition over to freezing rain, freezing drizzle and sleet (ice pellets) as we make our way into
post midnight hours tomorrow night/Tuesday morning. As the atmospheric column aloft continues to cool,
although we will see some freezing drizzle/freezing rain beginning by 3am Tuesday, I still think that
precipitation would transition over to a little more sleet (ice pellets) and light snow after 8am Tuesday and
that will continue through day Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Ice accumulations will average up to a tenth
of an inch with isolated spots up to a quarter of an inch possible with additional sleet (ice pellets) and snow
accumulation possible on top of this. As mentioned above, temperatures will likely fall below freezing in the
predawn hours Tuesday and remain below freezing Tuesday and Tuesday night before rising back into mid
and upper 30s Wednesday. As a result, hazardous/dangerous road conditions will result throughout the IH35
corridor and south central Texas for the late Monday night, Tuesday, Tuesday night into Wednesday time
period given this forecast scenario.

As it appears now, any precipitation associated with this first passing disturbance will end, with the departure of
the disturbance, by late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Clouds may break a bit on Wednesday.

However, another secondary upper air low pressure disturbance is now seen in the Wednesday night into Thursday
time period with clouds increasing and precipitation chances returning for the period. Current thinking is
that we could see some freezing rain, freezing drizzle, sleet (ice pellets) and snow once again but timing and
amounts as well as exact temperature profiles are uncertain and forecast confidence is lower particularly with
exact surface temperatures and precipitation type.

As I mentioned previously, I continue to think that the models may be a little too warm with this incoming air
mass – something we tend to see when you get this type of air mass this far south – so we are now seeing
temperatures trending a little colder; this will be especially true if we see any ice/sleet/snow accumulations. The
exact time of the frontal passage could be a little earlier than we’re currently thinking – another possibility
when you see these arctic fronts pressing southward through Texas. At this point locally, regarding the initial
system tomorrow night into Tuesday, my confidence in the much colder air arriving continues to be very high
with very high confidence that precipitation will occur. Being able to forecast exact precipitation type, at any given
time in the forecast, is a lower confidence although I have very high confidence that we’ll see freezing/frozen
precipitation locally. Please understand that timing of the individual ingredients (of colder air arrival, atmospheric
column temperatures aloft and the upper air disturbance) is indeed everything when you consider the forecast
given this potential winter weather event for south central Texas. In other words, if one
of our ingredients or timing changes, the forecast can and will change
.

I’ll continue to keep you advised on both of these potential winter weather events.

tk

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:

I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf
to the National Weather Service, please let me know at tkimmel@troykimmelweather.com

GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:

NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center

by troyk | on Jan 14, 2018 | Comments Off
Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #5
 Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
 325pm CT - Sunday / 14 January 2018
 
 .. Confidence Increasing on Potential Winter Weather Event Late Tomorrow 
 Night into Tuesday .. NWS Issued Winter Storm Watch Now In Effect for all of South Central
 Texas Late Tomorrow Night through Tuesday Evening ...
 .. Now Monitoring a Secondary Disturbance Wednesday Night into Thursday with
 Renewed Possible Winter Weather Threat ..
  .. Ice / Sleet / Snow Accumulations Now Likely Monday Night Through Tuesday ..
 
 On this Sunday afternoon, I continue to watch an arctic air mass that is forecast to move
 southward into our area by late tomorrow night into Tuesday. After a brief warm up tomorrow 
 (highs now forecast into the lower 60s), we'll see northerly winds increase and temperatures fall 
 rapidly following the surface cold frontal passage which I am expecting in the 9pm to 12 midnight
 time period tomorrow night for the IH35 corridor. In the hours before and around the forecast time 
 of the surface cold frontal passage, an upper air low pressure disturbance is forecast to track 
 eastward over our area with clouds picking up late in the afternoon tomorrow with light rain and 
 drizzle starting sometime around the dinner hour with the precipitation persisting as the front 
 passes and continuing as much as 24 hours after the frontal passage as moisture overruns the much 
 colder surface air moving into the area. 
 
 Surface temperatures, following the cold frontal passage, will fall into the 30s quickly with freezing 
 temperatures likely by 1am to 3am Tuesday morning then into the mid to upper 20s by daybreak with 
 daytime highs on Tuesday (with the associated cloud cover) staying primarily in the 20s with a strong
 northerly wind and impressive wind chill in the low to mid teens.  
 
 As temperatures fall following the frontal passage, any precipitation that is occurring locally 
 would transition over to freezing rain, freezing drizzle and sleet (ice pellets) as we make our way into 
 post midnight hours tomorrow night/Tuesday morning. As the atmospheric column aloft continues to cool, 
 although we will see some freezing drizzle/freezing rain beginning by 3am Tuesday, I still think that 
 precipitation would transition over to a little more sleet (ice pellets) and light snow after 8am Tuesday and 
 that will continue through day Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Ice accumulations will average up to a tenth 
 of an inch with isolated spots up to a quarter of an inch possible with additional sleet (ice pellets) and snow 
 accumulation possible on top of this. As mentioned above, temperatures will likely fall below freezing in the
 predawn hours Tuesday and remain below freezing Tuesday and Tuesday night before rising back into mid 
 and upper 30s Wednesday. As a result, hazardous/dangerous road conditions will result throughout the IH35 
 corridor and south central Texas for the late Monday night, Tuesday, Tuesday night into Wednesday time
 period given this forecast scenario.
 
 As it appears now, any precipitation associated with this first passing disturbance will end, with the departure of
 the disturbance, by late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Clouds may break a bit on Wednesday.
 
 However, another secondary upper air low pressure disturbance is now seen in the Wednesday night into Thursday
 time period with clouds increasing and precipitation chances returning for the period. Current thinking is
 that we could see some freezing rain, freezing drizzle, sleet (ice pellets) and snow once again but timing and
 amounts as well as exact temperature profiles are uncertain and forecast confidence is lower particularly with
 exact surface temperatures and precipitation type. 
 
 As I mentioned previously, I continue to think that the models may be a little too warm with this incoming air 
 mass - something we tend to see when you get this type of air mass this far south - so we are now seeing 
 temperatures trending a little colder; this will be especially true if we see any ice/sleet/snow accumulations. The
 exact time of the frontal passage could be a little earlier than we're currently thinking - another possibility 
 when you see these arctic fronts pressing southward through Texas. At this point locally, regarding the initial
 system tomorrow night into Tuesday, my confidence in the much colder air arriving continues to be very high 
 with very high confidence that precipitation will occur. Being able to forecast exact precipitation type, at any given 
 time in the forecast, is a lower confidence although I have very high confidence that we'll see freezing/frozen 
 precipitation locally. Please understand that timing of the individual ingredients (of colder air arrival, atmospheric 
 column temperatures aloft and the upper air disturbance) is indeed everything when you consider the forecast 
 given this potential winter weather event for south central Texas. In other words, if one
 of our ingredients or timing changes, the forecast can and will change.
 
 I'll continue to keep you advised on both of these potential winter weather events.
 
 tk  
  
 CALL TO ACTION:
 
 Please remain "weather aware" and listen for the latest weather statements,
 advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service. 
 
 Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
 set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.
 
 FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:
 
 I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
 event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf
 to the National Weather Service, please let me know at tkimmel@troykimmelweather.com
 
 GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:
 
 NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings 
 NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
 NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
 NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions - Severe Weather & Snow)
 NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
 NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions - Heavy Rain & Flooding)
 NWS/National Hurricane Center

---

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-221-223-151100-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.A.0001.180116T0600Z-180117T0000Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Wilson-Gonzales-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Del Rio, 
Rocksprings, Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne, 
Blanco, San Marcos, Austin, Bastrop, Giddings, Bracketville, 
Uvalde, Hondo, San Antonio, New Braunfels, Seguin, Lockhart, 
La Grange, Floresville, and Gonzales
250 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. The ice will result in
  dangerous travel conditions for late Monday tonight through the
  day on Tuesday. Total ice accumulations of up around one tenth 
  of an inch are expected with isolated totals up to one quarter 
  inch.

* WHERE...Most of South Central Texas.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the wintry precipitation and
  the impacts of accumlating freezing rain, sleet, and snow
  temperatures will be very cold. Temperatures will drop into the
  upper 20s by Tuesday afternoon and with strong north winds
  windchill values could drop into the teens. Overnight Tuesday
  into Wednesday as temperatures continue to drop some single
  digit windchill values will be possible in the Hill Country. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&