Austin Area Forecast

by troyk | on May 04, 2018 | Comments Off

Friday morning / 04 May

Due to ongoing weather, I will be a bit late in posting my forecast here.

Please follow me on Twitter for late breaking weather info… @troykimmelwx ..

I’ll get this forecast updated a little later today..

Thanks,

Troy

by troyk | on May 03, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 03 May 2018

… Rain and Stronger Thunderstorm Chances …
… Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern Returns Late Weekend into Next Week …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is to our distant east off the southeastern coast of the USA over the western Atlantic Ocean basin. Within a trough, or line, of surface low pressure, a cold front extends from the Great Lakes southwestward into a surface low over the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle with the cold front then extending southward through west Texas and into northern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are south southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northeastward from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the southeastern USA. A deep, potent upper level low pressure area, within a broad trough, or line, of low pressure over the western half of the USA, is located over eastern Colorado. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly around 60 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

As the dynamic upper level low pressure area to our distant west move eastward, a moist and increasingly unstable air mass continues across our area of Texas.

A few sprinkles along with a few rain showers and thunderstorms will continue in the forecast through tonight before precipitation chances peak tomorrow into tomorrow night as the weak cold front and the associated upper air low pressure disturbance out west moves eastward over Texas. I still feel that the best instability and dynamics will be to our north; the NWS/Storm Prediction Center meteorologists are continuing to highlight local areas for a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into Friday. NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance still suggests upwards of 1 to 1 1/2 inches of rain for the period with the heaviest totals being over the Texas Hill Country to our west.

In the wake of the cold front tomorrow into tomorrow night, rain chances will taper off as slightly drier and more stable air spreads over the area early Saturday.

As a result, I expect this return to sunshine Sunday into the early part of next week.

Have a good Thursday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 03 May 2018

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 85. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. A cloudy sky with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. A cloudy sky with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, as a cold front passes by late afternoon. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 78. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming north northeasterly late in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky and turning a little cooler with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. Rain chances decrease after midnight. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch with isolated higher totals. Low 61. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles and rain showers through 11am. Decreasing clouds in the afternoon. A 20% chance of rain in the morning; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. High 80. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 60. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 84. Light north northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 60. Light southeasterly wind becoming calm after midnight.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 63. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 88. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 65. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 88. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 10 May 2018 through Wednesday / 16 May 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (03 May)………………………………………… 6:46 am
Sunset this evening (03 May)………………………………………….. 8:10 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (04 May)…………………………………………….. 6:45 am
Sunset tomorrow (04 May)……………………………………………… 8:11 pm

by troyk | on May 02, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 02 May 2018

… Clouds and Muggy Conditions Continue …
… Best Rain and Stronger Thunderstorm Chances Late Week into Saturday …
… Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern Returns Late Weekend into Next Week …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is to our distant east off the southeastern coast of the USA over the western Atlantic Ocean basin. Within a trough, or line, of surface low pressure, a cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southward into central Iowa into central Kansas and Colorado into a developing surface low over southeastern Utah. The cold front continues from the low southward to along the New Mexico and Arizona state line and into northern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are south southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Ohio Valley region. A deep, potent upper level low pressure area, within a broad trough, or line, of low pressure over the western half of the USA, is located over western Arizona. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly 40 to 45 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

In advance of the dynamic upper level low pressure area to our distant west, a moist and increasingly unstable air mass continues to build across Texas.

A few sprinkles along with a few rain showers and thunderstorms will continue in the forecast through tomorrow before precipitation chances peak late Thursday night into Friday and Friday night as a weak cold front and the associated upper air low pressure disturbance moves eastward over Texas. Although I feel that the best instability and dynamics will likely be to our north, NWS/Storm Prediction Center meteorologists are highlighting local areas for a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday with the best chance locally of stronger thunderstorms being Friday into Friday night. NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance has trended a little lower on forecast rainfall but is still suggesting upwards of 1 to 1 1/2 inches of rain over the next seven day period with most of it coming in the Friday through early Saturday time period.

In the wake of the cold front Friday into Friday night, rain chances will taper off as slightly drier and more stable air spreads over the area Saturday into Saturday night.

As a result, I expect this return to sunshine Sunday into the early part of next week.

Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 02 May 2018

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles as well as widely scattered rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 86. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 85. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. A cloudy sky with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, as a cold front passes by late afternoon. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 81. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming north northeasterly late in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky and a little cooler with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch with isolated higher totals. Low 63. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, in the morning. Rain chances decreasing midday into the afternoon. A 40% chance of rain in the morning decreasing to 20% by late afternoon; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 80. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 60. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 84. Light north northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 60. Light southeasterly wind becoming calm after midnight.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 63. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 88. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 09 May 2018 through Tuesday / 15 May 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (02 May)………………………………………… 6:47 am
Sunset this evening (02 May)………………………………………….. 8:10 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (03 May)…………………………………………….. 6:46 am
Sunset tomorrow (03 May)……………………………………………… 8:10 pm

by troyk | on May 01, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 01 May 2018

… Clouds and Muggy Conditions Continue …
… Best Rain Chances Late Week into the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is to our east off the southeastern coast of the USA over the western Atlantic Ocean basin. Developing low pressure extends from Minnesota into the southwestern USA. Within this trough, or line, of low pressure, a cold front extends from Minnesota into Nebraska and Colorado and southern Utah and western Nevada and eastern Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is departing eastward from the northeastern coast of the USA into the Atlantic. Another trough extends south southwestward from Hudson Bay to the southwestern USA. Between the two troughs, a ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends southward from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are west northwesterly 30 to 40 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass continues across Texas.

A few sprinkles along with a few rain showers and thunderstorms will continue in the forecast through tomorrow before precipitation chances increase later Thursday into Friday and Friday night as a weak cold front and associated upper air low pressure disturbance moves eastward over Texas. NWS/Storm Prediction Center meteorologists are highlighting areas to our west for a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday with the best chance locally of stronger thunderstorms being Friday into Friday night. NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance is currently suggesting upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next seven day period with most of it coming in the Thursday through Saturday time period.

In the wake of the cold front Friday into Friday night, rain chances will taper off as slightly drier and more stable air spreads over the area Saturday into Saturday night.

At this point, I expect the return to sunshine and a more stable weather pattern Sunday into the early part of next week.

Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 01 May 2018

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles as well as widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 82. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles as well as widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles as well as widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 85. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 86. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 84. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, as a weak cold front passes in the evening. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch with isolated higher totals. Low 65. South southwesterly wind shifting east northeasterly early at 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, in the morning. Rain chances decreasing midday into the afternoon. A 40% chance of rain in the morning decreasing to 20% in the afternoon; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 80. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 60. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 83. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 62. Light southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 08 May 2018 through Monday / 14 May 2018…
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (01 May)………………………………………… 6:47 am
Sunset this evening (01 May)………………………………………….. 8:09 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (02 May)…………………………………………….. 6:47 am
Sunset tomorrow (02 May)……………………………………………… 8:10 pm

by troyk | on Apr 30, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 30 April 2018

… Increased Humidity With Rain Chances Returning …
… Best Rain Chances Late Week into the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is to our east and extends from the Ohio Valley region into southeastern Louisiana and the northern Gulf of Mexico. Developing low pressure extends from the Dakotas south southwestward into Colorado and he southwestern USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends southward from Maine into the western Atlantic Ocean basin. Another trough extends south southwestward from southwestern Canada over the western third of the USA. Between the two troughs, a ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends southward from the Great Lakes into eastern Texas and Louisiana. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 30 to 40 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

As we start the new week, a more moist and increasingly unstable air mass is taking hold across Texas.

Today into tonight, a weak low pressure disturbance will trigger a few rain showers over the area although rainfall amounts will remain minimal.

A few rain showers and thunderstorms will continue in the forecast tomorrow through Wednesday before precipitation chances increase later Thursday into Friday and Friday night as a weak cold front and associated upper air low pressure disturbance moves eastward over Texas. NWS/Storm Prediction Center meteorologists are highlighting areas to our west for a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday with the best chance locally of stronger thunderstorms being Friday into Friday night. NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance is currently suggesting upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next seven day period with most of it coming in the Thursday through Saturday time period.

In the wake of the cold front Friday into Friday night, rain chances will taper off as slightly drier and more stable air spreads over the area Saturday into Saturday night.

At this point, I expect the return to sunshine and a more stable weather pattern Sunday into the early part of next week.

Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Monday / 30 April 2018

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. High 81. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 82. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 86. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 86. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 84. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, as a weak cold front passes in the evening. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch with isolated higher totals. Low 63. South southwesterly wind shifting east northeasterly early at 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, in the morning. Rain chances decreasing midday into the afternoon. A 40% chance of rain in the morning decreasing to 20% in the afternoon; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 80. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 60. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 81. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly in the afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 07 May 2018 through Sunday / 13 May 2018…
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (30 April)………………………………………. 6:48 am
Sunset this evening (30 April)………………………………………… 8:08 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (01 May)…………………………………………….. 6:47 am
Sunset tomorrow (01 May)……………………………………………… 8:09 pm