Austin Area Forecast

by troyk | on Apr 17, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 17 April 2018

… Storm System with Rain Chances Friday into Saturday …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is situated over the Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure storm system continues to get better developed over the intermountain west and the western Rockies with a cold front extending south into Arizona and northwestern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly.

On the upper air map… two strong upper level low pressure storm systems are located over the USA.. one over the eastern Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River Valley and the other from Montana southward into Arizona. A ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from Texas through the central plains. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 30 to 40 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Abundant sunshine will prevail today with southerly winds increasing over the area.

A relatively weak cold front will move through our area by tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Moisture and instability will be limited so I will not mention any rain chances.

A second and more potent upper level low pressure disturbance and associated stronger cold front will approach the area beginning Friday and will finally move through the area by late Saturday into Saturday night. Current guidance suggests that more than sufficient moisture return along with plenty of instability in place over our area as this system moves through. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning Friday afternoon into Friday night before peaking Saturday into Saturday evening as the system moves eastward overhead. Current indications are that we’ll see a few stronger thunderstorms, with a possible hail and stronger straight line thunderstorm wind threat, for Saturday into Saturday evening. In addition, NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests an inch or rain will fall, on average, across the area.

Once the cold front passes Saturday night, skies will clear with plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions for Sunday.

Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 17 April 2018

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 84. Southerly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog otherwise partly cloudy as a weak cold front passes in the afternoon. High 83. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting north northeasterly in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 59. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 80. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more easterly by afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly cloudy after 11pm. Low 61. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk in the afternoon. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 80. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 78. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more southwesterly by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the evening. A 50% chance of rain in the evening with rain chances decreasing thereafter; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low 58. Southwesterly wind becoming northwesterly 8 to 15 mph by evening as the front passes.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine and less humid. High 77. Northerly winds 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 57. Light north northeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 78. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming easterly by afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 24 April 2018 through Monday / 30 April 2018…
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 April)………………………………………. 7:01 am
Sunset this evening (17 April)………………………………………… 8:00 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 April)…………………………………………… 7:00 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 April)……………………………………………. 8:01 pm

by troyk | on Apr 16, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 16 April 2018

… A Dry Start to the Week …
… Storm System Returns Rain Chances Friday and Saturday …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is situated over the US central plains. A low pressure storm system is getting better developed over the intermountain west with a cold front extending south into southern California. A strong low pressure storm system is over North Carolina. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are light and variable.

On the upper air map… two strong upper level low pressure storm systems are located over the USA.. one over the southern Great Lakes and the other over the Pacific northwest. A ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from northern Mexico into New Mexico and Colorado. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 40 to 45 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Abundant sunshine with prevail as we start our new week with warmer temperatures in place over the next few days.

A relatively weak cold front will move through our area by Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Moisture and instability will be limited so I will not mention any rain chances.

A second and more potent upper level low pressure disturbance and associated stronger cold front will approach the area beginning Friday and will finally move through the area by Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Current guidance suggests sufficient moisture return along with plenty of instability in place over our area as this system moves through. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning Friday and Friday night before peaking Saturday into Saturday night as the system moves eastward overhead. Current indications are that we’ll see a few stronger thunderstorms, with a possible hail and stronger straight line thunderstorm wind threat, for Saturday into Saturday evening. In addition, NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests an inch or rain will fall, on average, across the area.

Once the cold front passes Saturday night, skies will clear with plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions for Sunday.

Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Monday / 16 April 2018

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 80. Light wind becoming southerly and increasing to 10 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 58. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 86. Southerly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy as a weak cold front passes in the afternoon. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting north northeasterly in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 59. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 81. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more easterly by afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly cloudy after 11pm. Low 62. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 80. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 78. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more southwesterly by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the evening. A 60% chance of rain before 10pm with rain chances decreasing thereafter; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low 58. Southwesterly wind becoming northwesterly 8 to 15 mph by evening as the front passes.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine and less humid. High 77. North northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 23 April 2018 through Sunday / 29 April 2018…
Temperatures… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 April)………………………………………. 7:02 am
Sunset this evening (16 April)………………………………………… 7:59 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 April)…………………………………………… 7:01 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 April)……………………………………………. 8:00 pm

by troyk | on Apr 13, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 13 April 2018

… Slim Rain Chances Today into Tonight with Passing Cold Front …
… Clearing with Cooler Temperatures for the Weekend …
… Overall, A Dry Seven Day Forecast ….

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a deepening surface low pressure area is over north central and northeast Kansas with a cold front extending west southwestward through southeastern Colorado into northwest New Mexico and central Arizona. A dry line.. separating drier continental tropical air (think hot and dry) to the west from maritime tropical air (warm and humid) to the east.. extends from the surface low southward into western Oklahoma into southwest Texas east of the Texas Big Bend.
Surface high pressure is well to the east over the Atlantic Ocean off the eastern USA seaboard. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly.

On the upper air map… a deep dynamic trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends southward from Montana into New Mexico. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly 60 to 70 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Surface high pressure continues well east of the area with southerly winds prevailing. Late night and early morning low clouds are present over the area as a result of abundant moisture return off of the Gulf of Mexico.

By later today into tonight, the well developed upper level low pressure storm system to our west and the associated cold front, to our distant northwest, will cross Texas and the central USA with increased rain and thunderstorm chances mainly in areas to our north, northeast and east. The rain chances peak later this afternoon into tonight as the system passes.

Abundant sunshine with cooler temperatures will prevail for our weekend. The dry weather pattern will continue through much of next week with temperatures warming a bit. Our next cold front, after the one tonight into early tomorrow, will move through the area by the end of next week into the following weekend.

Over the next seven days, NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall locally will average 1/4 inch or less. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has outlooked areas to our northeast over northeast Texas and the overall ArkLaTex region for the possibility of severe thunderstorms today into tonight. A few of those stronger thunderstorms may occur later today into tonight along and east of the IH35 corridor counties and into areas to our distant east and northeast.

Have a good Friday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Friday / 13 April 2018

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the mid and late afternoon, with an associated lightning risk mainly in areas east of the IH35 corridor. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk, mainly in areas east of the IH35 corridor, as a cold front passes by mid to late evening. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Cooler with clouds decreasing late. Low 54. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts shifting north northwesterly.

SATURDAY…. A few clouds early, otherwise sunshine and cooler. High 70. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 44. Northerly wind decreasing to 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 74. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 47. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 79. Light wind becoming south southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 55. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 82. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 60. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 62. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 20 April 2018 through Thursday / 26 April 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (13 April)………………………………………. 7:06 am
Sunset this evening (13 April)………………………………………… 7:57 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (14 April)…………………………………………… 7:05 am
Sunset tomorrow (14 April)……………………………………………. 7:58 pm

by troyk | on Apr 12, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 12 April 2018

… Clouds and Humidity Increase…
… Rain Chances Late Tomorrow Night into Friday and Friday Night …
… Clearing with Cooler Temperatures for the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is well to the east along the coast of North Carolina. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure is deepening from western Kansas and southeastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico and west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends southward along the est coast of the USA. A zonal.. or west-to-east.. wind pattern otherwise exists across the USA. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are west southwesterly 20 to 30 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Surface high pressure is now east of the area with southerly winds prevailing. Low level moisture has increased enough for late night and early morning low clouds.

By tonight into tomorrow and tomorrow night, the well developed upper level low pressure storm system out west and an associated cold front will cross Texas and the central USA with increased rain and thunderstorm chances locally. Those rain chances return to the forecast as early as late tonight and then peak later tomorrow into tomorrow night and into the predawn hours Saturday as the system passes.

Abundant sunshine with cooler temperatures will prevail for our weekend.

Over the next seven days, NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall locally will average 1/4 inch. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has outlooked areas to our northeast over northeast Texas and the overall ArkLaTex region for the possibility of severe thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. A few of those stronger thunderstorms may occur along and east of the IH35 corridor counties and into areas to the east northeast.

Have a good Thursday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 12 April 2018

TODAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy and more humid. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. A few rain showers develop mainly after midnight. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/10th inch. Low 69. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Much cooler with clouds decreasing late. Low 45. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts shifting north northwesterly.

SATURDAY…. Some clouds early, otherwise sunshine and cooler. High 70. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 44. Northerly wind decreasing to 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 74. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 47. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 79. Light wind becoming south southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 55. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 82. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 60. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 19 April 2018 through Wednesday / 25 April 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (12 April)………………………………………. 7:07 am
Sunset this evening (12 April)………………………………………… 7:57 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (13 April)…………………………………………… 7:06 am
Sunset tomorrow (13 April)……………………………………………. 7:57 pm

by troyk | on Apr 11, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 11 April 2018

… Sunshine Prevails as Temperatures Warm …
… Rain Chances Late Tomorrow Night into Friday and Friday Night …
… Clearing with Cooler Temperatures for the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is situated to the east of the area over northeast Louisiana.. southeastern Arkansas and eastern Mississippi. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure is deepening from southeastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are light but are expected to increase from the south later this morning.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends southeastward from Hudson Bay over the eastern third of the USA. A weak ridge, or line, of high pressure extends north northwestward from the south central USA into the Rockies and intermountain west. Another trough, or line, of low pressure is off the west coast of Canada and the USA. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are west northwesterly 20 to 30 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Surface high pressure has now moved east of the area with southerly winds returning. As a result, plenty of sunshine with warming temperatures will prevail today through tomorrow.

By tomorrow night into Friday and Friday night, a well developed upper level low pressure storm system and associated cold front will cross Texas and the central USA with increased rain and thunderstorm chances. Those rain chances return to the forecast as early as tomorrow night and then peak later on Friday into Friday night and into the predawn hours Saturday as the system passes.

Abundant sunshine with cooler temperatures will prevail for our weekend.

Over the next seven days, NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall locally will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has outlooked areas to our northeast over northeast Texas and the overall ArkLaTex region for the possibility of severe thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. A few of those stronger thunderstorms may occur along the IH35 corridor counties and in areas to the east northeast.

Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 11 April 2018

TODAY…. Sunshine and warmer. High 83. Light south southeasterly wind becoming southerly 8 to 15 mph and gusty by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 60. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. A few rain showers develop mainly after midnight. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/10th inch. Low 69. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes after midnight. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Clouds decreasing slowly after midnight. Low 56. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts shifting north northwesterly after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine and cooler. High 69. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 44. Northerly wind decreasing to 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 74. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more easterly by the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 49. Light east southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 79. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 55. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 82. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 18 April 2018 through Tuesday / 24 April 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (11 April)………………………………………. 7:08 am
Sunset this evening (11 April)………………………………………… 7:56 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (12 April)…………………………………………… 7:07 am
Sunset tomorrow (12 April)……………………………………………. 7:57 pm