Austin Area Forecast

by troyk | on Apr 24, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 24 April 2018

… Cold Front Passes Wednesday and Again on Friday …
… Limited Rain Chances with Wednesday Cold Front …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is over south Texas and the northwest Gulf of Texas. A low pressure area is over South Dakota with a cold front extending southward into northwestern Kansas then southwestward into southern Colorado and southern Utah. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are light and variable.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is located over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions and covering the eastern half of the USA. Another upper level low pressure disturbance is located over the western Dakotas and eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northwesterly 70 to 80 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The surface high pressure area and its associated clockwise wind flow, which is centered overhead, will move east of the area later today into tonight with the return to southerly surface wind and some increase in low level moisture and maritime tropical air off the Gulf of Mexico.

Tomorrow, a passing upper air low pressure will move from northwest to southeast across north Texas and Oklahoma. An associated cold front will move across the area by afternoon tomorrow with the upper air low pressure disturbance being a little slower in crossing over the area. While the system will be pretty dynamic, I still have real doubts about how much gulf moisture will be able to return in advance of the system so I will post only slim rain chances for tomorrow into tomorrow night, first associated with the front moving southeastward, and afterwards into tomorrow night as the upper air system completes its passage overhead.

A more stable weather pattern will prevail for the latter party of the week through the upcoming weekend. Another cold front will pass on Friday but it will only reinforce the air mass in place. Little in the way of sensible weather, other than a wind shift, is expected with the front on Friday.

Surface high pressure will once again move east of the area by late in the weekend into early next week with low level moisture, off the Gulf of Mexico, making a return to the area.

Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 24 April 2018

TODAY…. Mostly sunny and warmer. High 88. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 59. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, as a cold front passes by afternoon. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 81. Light southerly wind becoming northerly 5 to 10 mph by afternoon as the front passes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 55. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny and less humid. High 79. North northwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 55. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph early becoming southeasterly after midnight.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny as a cold front passes in the morning. High 80. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 54. Light north northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming easterly by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 57. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 82. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then low clouds late. Low 61. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 83. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 01 May 2018 through Monday / 07 May 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (24 April)………………………………………. 6:54 am
Sunset this evening (24 April)………………………………………… 8:04 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (25 April)…………………………………………… 6:53 am
Sunset tomorrow (25 April)……………………………………………. 8:05 pm

by troyk | on Apr 23, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 23 April 2018

… A Mostly Dry Weather Pattern Ahead over the Next Seven Days …
… Cold Fronts Pass Early Wednesday and Again on Friday …
… Limited Rain Chances with Wednesday Cold Front …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a cold front extends from a surface low over southern Kentucky through Tennessee then into western Georgia then the Florida panhandle into the central Gulf of Mexico where it becomes stationary and extends westward into northeastern Mexico. Surface high pressure, behind the front, extends from Kansas into west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are west northwesterly.

On the upper air map… a series of upper level low pressure disturbances is embedded in a rather zonal (west-to-east) wind flow over the USA. The first disturbance is centered over western Tennessee and western Kentucky with another strong disturbance over western Montana and Idaho. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are west northwesterly about 110 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

In the wake of our cold front late Saturday night, a dry and stable weather pattern with plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions prevails over our area with the start of the new week.

By tomorrow, the surface high pressure area and its associated clockwise wind flow will move east of the area with the return to southerly surface wind and some increase in low level moisture and maritime tropical air off the Gulf of Mexico.

Late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, a passing upper air low pressure will move from northwest to southeast across north Texas and Oklahoma. An associated cold front will move across the area on Wednesday morning with the upper air low pressure disturbance being a little slower in crossing over the area. While the system will be pretty dynamic, I have real doubts about how much gulf moisture will be able to return in advance of the system so I will post only very slim rain chances for Wednesday, associated with the front moving by, and afterwards into Wednesday night as the upper air system completes its passage overhead.

A more stable weather pattern will prevail for the latter party of the week through the upcoming weekend. Another cold front will pass on Friday but it will only reinforce the air mass in place. Little in the way of sensible weather, other than a wind shift, is expected with the front on Friday.

Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Monday / 23 April 2018

TODAY…. Sunshine and warmer. High 83. Northwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 58. Light northerly wind becoming calm late.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny and warmer. High 89. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 59. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, as a cold front passes in the morning. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. A little cooler. High 77. Light southerly wind becoming northerly 5 to 10 mph in the morning as the front passes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a few sprinkles before 9pm. A 10% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 54. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny and less humid. High 79. North northwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 55. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph early becoming southeasterly after midnight.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny as a cold front passes in the morning. High 80. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 54. Light north northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming easterly by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 57. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 82. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 30 April 2018 through Sunday / 06 May 2018…
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23 April)………………………………………. 6:55 am
Sunset this evening (23 April)………………………………………… 8:04 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (24 April)…………………………………………… 6:54 am
Sunset tomorrow (24 April)……………………………………………. 8:04 pm

by troyk | on Apr 20, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 20 April 2018

… Rain / Thunderstorm Chances Beginning Late Tonight …
… Rain Chances Decrease As Cold Front Passes Late Saturday Night …
… Sunshine Returns for Sunday into the New Week …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a stationary front extends from central Florida southwestward over the central Gulf of Mexico then into Mexico well south of Brownsville and into northeastern Mexico. High pressure, north of the front, is centered over the western Great Lakes and the southeastern USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are easterly.

On the upper air map… a series of upper level low pressure disturbances is embedded in a rather zonal (west-to-east) wind flow over the USA. The first disturbance is centered east of Maine with another stronger one over southeastern Utah. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly about 70 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The cold front, which moved through the area in the midday hours on Wednesday, has become stationary over the central Gulf of Mexico.

The upper level low pressure disturbance, over southeastern Utah, and an associated stronger cold front is still expected to approach the area beginning later tonight and will move through the area by midnight tomorrow night. As it approaches, the stationary front over the Gulf of Mexico will turn into a warm front and rush back northward through our area by tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon.

As the air mass in advance of system grows more moist and unstable, I expect rain shower and thunderstorm activity beginning tonight (mainly after midnight) with chances peaking tomorrow as the system moves eastward. The latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance has maintained the severe weather risk for tomorrow as “marginal,” with an associated hail and stronger straight line thunderstorm wind threat in areas mainly to our northeast, for tomorrow and tomorrow night. The chance of rain will decrease by late tomorrow night as the surface cold front passes. The NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance continues to suggest rainfall of 1/4 inch locally with some heavier amounts mainly to our northeast.

Once the cold front passes later Saturday night with reduced rain chances, skies will clear with plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions for Sunday into the first half of next week.

Have a good Friday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Friday / 20 April 2018

TODAY…. Partly cloudy. High 73. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly after midnight. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average less than 1/4 inch. Low 59. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk mainly before 5pm. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 76. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more southerly by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes around midnight. Rain chances decreasing to 40% in the evening with rain chances decreasing to less than 20% after midnight; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low 56. Southwesterly wind becoming north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts by evening as the front passes.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine and less humid. High 77. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 53. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 79. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 56. Light northeasterly wind becoming light easterly after midnight.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 84. Light westerly wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 59. Light south southeasterly winds.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy as a cold front passes. High 80. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeasterly as a front passes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 56. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 80. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 27 April 2018 through Thursday / 03 May 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 April)………………………………………. 6:58 am
Sunset this evening (20 April)………………………………………… 8:02 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (21 April)…………………………………………… 6:57 am
Sunset tomorrow (21 April)……………………………………………. 8:02 pm

by troyk | on Apr 19, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 19 April 2018

… Rain / Thunderstorm Chances Friday Night into Saturday …
… Cold Front Passes Saturday Night …
… Sunshine Returns for Sunday into the New Week …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a cold front extends from the southeastern USA to southern Louisiana to just off the Texas coast then onshore again over south Texas then into northern Mexico. High pressure, to the north of the front, is centered over the central plains states. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are north northeasterly.

On the upper air map… a series of upper level low pressure disturbances is embedded in a rather zonal (west-to-east) wind flow over the USA. The first disturbance is over the northeastern USA with another stronger one over Nevada and California. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 50 to 55 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The front, which moved through the area in the midday hours yesterday, is moving off the Texas coast this morning.

Our next upper level low pressure disturbance and associated stronger cold front is still expected to approach the area beginning tomorrow night and will move through the area by Saturday night. I expect rain shower and thunderstorm activity beginning Friday night with chances peaking Saturday into Saturday afternoon as the system moves eastward. The latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance has reduced the severe weather risk for Saturday to “marginal” so I will continue the possibility for a few stronger thunderstorms locally, with a possible hail and stronger straight line thunderstorm wind threat, for Saturday into Saturday afternoon with the chance of thunderstorms decreasing by evening. Based on the information above, the NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance has pulled back on the forecast rainfall amounts.. now suggesting rainfall of 1/4 inch locally.

Once the cold front passes later Saturday night with reduced rain chances, skies will clear with plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions for Sunday into the first half of next week.

Have a good Thursday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 19 April 2018

TODAY…. Partly cloudy. High 77. East northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming partly to mostly cloudy after 11pm. Low 58. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 75. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers mainly after midnight. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/10th inch or less. Low 61. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk mainly before 4pm. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 77. East southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more southerly by late afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes by late night. Rain chances decreasing to 30% in the evening with rain chances decreasing to less than 20% after 10pm; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low 56. Southwesterly wind becoming northwesterly 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts by evening as the front passes.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine and less humid. High 77. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 55. Light north northeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 78. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming easterly by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 56. Light easterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 59. Light south southeasterly winds.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 82. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 26 April 2018 through Wednesday / 02 May 2018…
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 April)………………………………………. 6:59 am
Sunset this evening (19 April)………………………………………… 8:01 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 April)…………………………………………… 6:58 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 April)……………………………………………. 8:02 pm

by troyk | on Apr 18, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 18 April 2018

… Rain / Thunderstorm Chances Friday Night into Saturday …
… Sunshine Returns for Sunday into the New Week …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a surface low pressure area is near Kansas City with a cold front extending south southwesterly from that low into another low pressure area along the Red River north of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex and then continuing southwestward across western parts of central Texas then westward to near Midland and then into southern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly.

On the upper air map… a series of upper level low pressure disturbances is embedded in a rather zonal (west-to-east) wind flow over the USA. The first disturbance is over northern Maine.. with another over western Iowa and eastern Nebraska and the third one off the west coast of the USA offshore off the Washington and Oregon coasts. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 50 to 55 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

A relatively weak cold front will be moving overhead of our south central Texas area this afternoon. Low level moisture return ahead of the front has resulted in low clouds this morning but I still do not think we’ll see much more than the wind shift as the front moves through by this afternoon.

A second and more potent upper level low pressure disturbance and associated stronger cold front is still expected to approach the area beginning Friday night and will finally move through the area by late Saturday into Saturday night. Unlike yesterday’s guidance, which suggested that more than sufficient moisture return along with plenty of instability in place as this system moves through, the latest guidance has really backed off the amount of moisture return that we expect in place when the system moves overhead late Saturday into Saturday night. As a result, my confidence in this part of the forecast has dropped until we can see another atmospheric computer run or two to see if this trend continues. In any case, I still expect some rain showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday night with chances peaking Saturday into Saturday night as the system moves eastward overhead. The latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance has, as well, caught on the potential for less moisture return and mentions that they may reduce the severe weather risk in later outlooks; however, for now, I will continue the possibility for a few stronger thunderstorms locally, with a possible hail and stronger straight line thunderstorm wind threat, for Saturday into Saturday night. Based on the information above, the NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance has pulled back on the forecast rainfall amounts.. now suggesting rainfall of 1/4 to 1/2 inch locally.

Once the cold front passes Saturday night, skies will clear with plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions for Sunday into the first part of next week.

Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 18 April 2018

TODAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy as a weak cold front passes in the afternoon. High 83. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting north northeasterly in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 57. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 77. East northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming partly to mostly cloudy after 11pm. Low 58. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 75. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers mainly after midnight. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/10th inch or less. Low 61. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 77. East southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more southwesterly by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the evening. A 60% chance of rain in the evening with rain chances decreasing thereafter; rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low 56. Southwesterly wind becoming northwesterly 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts by evening as the front passes.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine and less humid. High 77. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 55. Light north northeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 78. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming easterly by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 56. Light easterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 25 April 2018 through Tuesday / 01 May 2018…
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 April)………………………………………. 7:00 am
Sunset this evening (18 April)………………………………………… 8:01 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 April)…………………………………………… 6:59 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 April)……………………………………………. 8:01 pm