Austin Area Forecast

by troyk | on Oct 20, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 20 October 2017

.. Southerly Winds and Warmer Temperatures into the Weekend ..
.. Another Cold Front and Higher Rain Chances on Sunday ..
.. A Reinforcing Cold Front Due Next Tuesday ..

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a surface high pressure area is located over eastern Kentucky and Tennessee. A trough, or line, of surface low pressure is deepening from eastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado into far west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a deepening trough, or line, of upper air low pressure stretches southward from the western part of Canada through the western half of the USA. A line of upper level high pressure, or a ridge, extends northward from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the eastern half of the USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are west southwesterly 35 to 45 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The surface high pressure is now well east of Texas; as a result, we’re back to a south southeasterly surface wind. As a result, we’ll see increasing low level moisture and a little more instability through the balance of the week and into the weekend.

I’ll continue a slim chance of rain, rain shower and thunderstorm activity beginning today through Friday and Saturday as weak upper air disturbances move overhead west-to-east.

Our next strong cold front will move swiftly through Texas by late tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. Rain shower and thunderstorm chances will greatly increase as the front moves through the area with storm total rainfall of upwards of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain between now and Sunday afternoon.

In the wake of the front, skies will clear with breezy and cooler conditions to once again overspread the area for late Sunday into Monday.

A secondary reinforcing cold front will move through the area early Tuesday ushering in additional cooling and dry air. Since the air mass ahead of the front will be dry and stable, I expect little in the way of sensible weather, other than a wind shift, with the frontal passage.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 20 October 2017

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. A few sprinkles. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 83. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Variable clouds early.. a low overcast late. A few sprinkles. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms early increasing in coverage after midnight.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain early increasing to 60% after midnight; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight before shifting north northwesterly with cold frontal passage before daybreak.

SUNDAY…. Variable clouds early.. breezy and cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 9am. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon with rain chances quickly diminishing. High around 79. North northwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Becoming clear. Cooler. Low 53 to 56. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 79. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming 5 to 12 by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 55. Light north northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 76. Light wind shifting northerly 10 to 20 mph and gusty as a cold front moves through the area.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Clear and cooler. Low 49. North northeasterly wind slowly diminishing to 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine. High 78. Northeasterly wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 52. Light easterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 27 October 2017 through Thursday / 02 November 2017…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 October)………………………………….. 7:37 am
Sunset this evening (20 October)……………………………………. 6:54 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (21 October)………………………………………. 7:37 am
Sunset tomorrow (21 October)……………………………………….. 6:53 pm

by troyk | on Oct 19, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 19 October 2017

.. Southerly Winds and Warmer Temperatures into the Weekend ..
.. Another Cold Front and Higher Rain Chances on Sunday ..

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a surface high pressure area is located over Virginia and the United States east coast. A trough, or line, of surface low pressure is deepening from the plains states south southwestward into far west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are south southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure stretches southward from the southern parts of Hudson Bay into southeastern Canada and the eastern Great Lakes region. Another developing trough, or line, of upper air pressure is movibng from the Pacific Ocean into British Columbia and the Pacific northwest. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are westerly 20 to 25 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The surface high pressure is now well east of Texas; as a result, we’re back to a south southeasterly surface wind. As a result, we’ll see increasing low level moisture and a little more instability through the balance of the week and into the weekend.

I’ll continue a slim chance of rain, rain shower and thunderstorm activity beginning today through Friday and Saturday.

Our next strong cold front will move swiftly through Texas by late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Rain shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as the front moves through the area with upwards of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain possible.

In the wake of the front, skies will clear with breezy and cooler conditions to once again overspread the area for late Sunday into early next week.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 19 October 2017

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise variable clouds. A few sprinkles. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs it will average less than 1/10th inch. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Variable clouds early.. a low overcast late. A few sprinkles. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/10th inch. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise variable clouds. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Variable clouds early.. a low overcast late. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 66. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms early increasing in coverage after midnight.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain early increasing to 60% after midnight; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight before shifting north northwesterly with cold frontal passage before daybreak.

SUNDAY…. Variable clouds early.. breezy and cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 9am. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High around 79. North northwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Becoming clear. Cooler. Low 53 to 56. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 77. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming 5 to 12 by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 55. Light north northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 80. Light northeasterly wind becoming easterly late in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 59. Light easterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 26 October 2017 through Wednesday / 01 November 2017…
Temperature… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 October)………………………………….. 7:36 am
Sunset this evening (19 October)……………………………………. 6:55 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 October)………………………………………. 7:37 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 October)……………………………………….. 6:54 pm

by troyk | on Oct 18, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 18 October 2017

.. Southerly Winds and Warmer Temperatures into the Weekend ..
.. Another Cold Front and Higher Rain Chances on Sunday ..

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a surface high pressure area, in the wake of our Sunday cold front, is located from West Virginia southwestward into Mississippi and east Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are light and variable.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure stretches southward over the southeastern USA with another upper level low moving eastward across south central Canada. A rather zonal, or west-to-east, upper air wind pattern exists over the western USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are northwesterly 30 to 40 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The surface high pressure is continuing to move eastward and return us to a south southeasterly surface wind by tonight into tomorrow. As a result, we’ll see abundant sunshine with warmer temperatures today through the balance of the week and into the weekend.

A more unstable weather pattern will develop by tomorrow as low level moisture off the Gulf of Mexico increases. I’ll continue a slim chance of rain, rain shower and thunderstorm activity beginning tomorrow through Friday and Saturday.

A strong cold front will move swiftly through Texas by Sunday morning. Rain shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as the front moves through the area with upwards of 1/2 inch of rain possible.

In the wake of the front, skies will clear with breezy and cooler conditions to once again overspread the area for late Sunday into early next week.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 18 October 2017

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 83. Wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy late. Low 61. Light south southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. A few sprinkles after 12 noon. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs it will average less than 1/10th inch. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk.. before 9pm. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk.. before 9pm. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 66. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms early increasing in coverage after midnight.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain early increasing to 50% after midnight; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. Turning breezy and cooler by midday as cold front moves through. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High around 79. Southwesterly wind shifting north northwesterly 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Becoming clear. Cooler. Low 53 to 56. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 76. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming 5 to 12 by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 54 to 57. Light north northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 79. Light northeasterly wind becoming easterly late in the day.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 25 October 2017 through Tuesday / 31 October 2017…
Temperature… Slight Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 October)………………………………….. 7:35 am
Sunset this evening (18 October)……………………………………. 6:56 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 October)………………………………………. 7:36 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 October)……………………………………….. 6:55 pm

by troyk | on Oct 17, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 17 October 2017

.. Southerly Winds and Warmer Temperatures into the Weekend ..
.. Another Cold Front and Rain Chances on Sunday ..

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a surface high pressure area, in the wake of our Sunday cold front, is located from West Virginia southwestward into Arkansas and northeast Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are northeasterly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure stretches southward from east of Hudson Bay into the eastern third of the USA. Another trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is moving into western Canada and the Pacific northwest. Upper air high pressure is located over the southwestern USA and northern Mexico. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are northwesterly 30 to 40 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The surface high pressure overhead now is moving eastward and return us to a south southeasterly surface wind by tonight into tomorrow. As a result, we’ll see abundant sunshine with warmer temperatures through the balance of the week and into the weekend.

A more unstable weather pattern will develop as low level moisture off the Gulf of Mexico increases. I’ll introduce a slim chance of rain shower and thunderstorm activity beginning Thursday through Friday and Saturday.

Another strong cold front will move swiftly through Texas by Sunday morning. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase as the front moves through the area with upwards of 1/2 inch of rain possible.

In the wake of the front, skies will clear with breezy and cooler conditions to once again overspread the area for late Sunday into early next week.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 17 October 2017

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 77. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more easterly by late day.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 52. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly after midnight.

WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine. High 83. Wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy late. Low 61. Light south southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk.. after 12 noon. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 82. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk.. before 9pm. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 64. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk.. before 9pm. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 66. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms early increasing in coverage after midnight.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain early increasing to 50% after midnight; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. Turning breezy and cooler by midday as cold front moves through. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs given the 40% chance, will average 1/4 inch. High around 79. Southwesterly wind shifting north northwesterly 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Becoming clear. Cooler. Low 53 to 56. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 75. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming 5 to 12 by afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 24 October 2017 through Monday / 30 October 2017…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 October)………………………………….. 7:35 am
Sunset this evening (17 October)……………………………………. 6:57 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 October)………………………………………. 7:35 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 October)……………………………………….. 6:56 pm

by troyk | on Oct 16, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 16 October 2017

.. Cooler Start to the New Week ..
.. Southerly Winds and Warmer Temperatures Late Week into the Weekend ..
.. Another Cold Front and Rain Chances on Sunday ..

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a surface high pressure area, in the wake of our Sunday cold front, is located over northwest Texas and Oklahoma and northwestward over the Rockies. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are northerly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure stretches south southwestward from eastern parts of Hudson Bay south southwesterly across the eastern half of the country. Upper air high pressure is becoming established over the southwestern USA and northern Mexico. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are westerly 40 to 50 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

In the wake of the Sunday cold front, cooler and less humid conditions continue into the new week.

The surface high pressure overhead now move eastward and return us to a south southeasterly surface wind by Tuesday night into Wednesday. As a result, we’ll see abundant sunshine with warmer temperatures Thursday and Friday and into the weekend.

Another stronger cold front will move swiftly through Texas by Sunday morning. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase as the front moves through the area with upwards of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain possible.

In the wake of the front, skies will clear with breezy and cooler conditions to once again overspread the area for the end of the weekend into early next week.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 16 October 2017

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 76. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 49. Light north northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 77. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more easterly by late day.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 53. Light wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine. High 79. Wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 60. Light southerly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 82. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 83. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with low clouds returning after midnight. A few sprinkles after midnight with rainfall averaging trace amounts. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph

SUNDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. Turning breezy and cooler by midday as cold front moves through. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs given the 40% chance, will average 1/2 inch. High around 80. Southerly wind shifting north northwesterly 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 23 October 2017 through Sunday / 29 October 2017…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 October)………………………………….. 7:34 am
Sunset this evening (16 October)……………………………………. 6:59 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 October)………………………………………. 7:35 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 October)……………………………………….. 6:57 pm