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TK’s Audio Weather Webcast (Test Only)..

by troyk | on Nov 20, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 1015pm CT – Tuesday / 19 November 2013

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TK’s Audio Weather Webcast….

by troyk | on Nov 20, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 945am CT – Tuesday / 19 November 2013

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TK’s Audio Weather Webcast….

by troyk | on Nov 19, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 1245pm CT – Tuesday / 19 November 2013

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

by troyk | on Nov 19, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CST.. Tuesday / 19 November 2013

TODAY…. Partly cloudy. High 69 to 73. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph this morning becoming southeasterly in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Low 53 to 57. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. High 73 to 77. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a less than 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 60 to 64. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. High 75 to 79. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky with a 20% chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 62 to 66. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. A cloudy sky with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms early in the morning as a cold front passes.. then a 30% chance of rain midday and afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Highs 66 to 70 in the morning with temperatures falling into the 50s in the afternoon.  Southwesterly wind shifting northerly 15 to 25 mph and gusty in the wake of the cold front.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky and much cooler with a 30% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 41 to 45. Northerly wind 15 to 25 mph.

SATURDAY…. A cloudy sky and unseasonably cool with a 30% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 48 to 52. North northeasterly wind 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky with a 30% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 38 to 42. Northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. A cloudy sky with a 30% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 48 to 52. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky with a 30% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 39 to 43. Northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY…. A cloudy sky with a 30% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 49 to 53. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 26 November 2013  through Monday / 2 December 2013…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 November)………………………………. 7:00 am
Sunset this evening (19 November)……………………………….. 5:32 pm
Sunrise Wednesday (20 November)………………………………. 7:01 am
Sunset Wednesday (20 November)……………………………….. 5:32 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Nov 19, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CST Tuesday / 19 November 2013

…. Clouds Pick Up Tonight and Tomorrow Ahead of a Strong Late Week Cold Front ….
…. Overrunning Clouds and Rain with Much Cooler Temperatures by the Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a cold front extends westward across the Gulf of Mexico into far south Texas near Brownsville the northwestward as a stationary front into northern Mexico south of the Texas Big Bend. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is centered over the western Great Lakes and the middle Mississippi Valley. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are northeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the wind pattern over the USA has become more zonal (west-to-east) with a weak upper level low pressure area moving eastward out of Texas. As a result of the overall upper level wind flow, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly 30 to 40 mph.

As the surface high, to our north, continues to move eastward, we’re seeing a return to a southeasterly wind by later today into tonight and tomorrow. We’ll even see a slim chance of rain by tomorrow and into late week as moisture returns and deepens over our area.

By Friday, a strong upper air disturbance will pass by to our north and reshape the upper air wind pattern to allow for a strong cold front to move southward through the area about daybreak Friday. As the cold front moves offshore of the Texas coast by late Friday, another approaching upper air disturbance will keep moisture overrunning the colder air with rain chances and clouds persisting through next weekend and even into next week as well. Temperatures will cool to well below average levels by late Friday and through next weekend and into next week.

Latest guidance suggests that another upper air low pressure disturbance will move through the area next Tuesday and this will cause surface development of a low pressure off the Texas coast. As these systems move eastward, clouds will decrease and rain chances will drop from the forecast.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the midweek.. then a moderate to high confidence forecast for the latter part of the week. Confidence falls to moderate for Friday through the weekend into next week (I have some questions regarding how much colder air will be with the cold front and if rain probabilities should be higher).

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel