Author
Archives troyk

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast….

by troyk | on Feb 28, 2014 | Comments Off

Updated 945am CT – Friday / 28 February 2014

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

by troyk | on Feb 28, 2014 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 28 February 2014

TODAY…. Morning low clouds.. then becoming mostly sunny and much warmer. High 76 to 80. Southwesterly wind increasing to 8 to 18 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early. Low clouds late with patchy fog and drizzle developing after midnight. Low 58 to 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Patchy morning fog and drizzle.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 74 to 78. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. A partly cloudy evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and drizzle after midnight with a few rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 61 to 65. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Patchy morning fog and drizzle otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 73 to 77. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms as a cold front passes through the area by 8pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Slowly decreasing clouds and much cooler after midnight. Low 36 to 40. Southeasterly wind shifting northerly 10 to 20 mph.

MONDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy midday into the afternoon. High 47 to 51. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 32 to 36. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 50 to 54. Light east northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy after 9pm with a few patches of light rain developing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 37 to 41. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few patches of light rain. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less.  High 52 to 56. East northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. A few sprinkles early with mostly cloudy sky prevailing. Low 39 to 43. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Decreasing clouds becoming partly cloudy. High 60 to 64. East northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 7 March 2014 through Thursday / 13 March 2014…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (28 February)……………………………… 6:58 am
Sunset this evening (28 February)………………………………. 6:29 pm
Sunrise Saturday (01 March)……………………………………… 6:57 am
Sunset Saturday (01 March)………………………………………. 6:30 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Feb 28, 2014 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT – Friday / 28 February 2014

…. More Sunshine into the Weekend ….
…. Clouds and Rain Chances Increase Late Saturday into Sunday ….
…. Another Cold Front Due Sunday Night …. Much Colder Early Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure /1018mb/ is over central and southern Alabama. A cold front extends westward from northern Georgia into Arkansas where it turns into a warm front and extends northwestward into Kansas. A developing low pressure area /996mb/ is over the northern Texas and Oklahoma panhandles northward into southwestern Kansas. A cold front extends southwestward from this developing low into southern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a massive low pressure area continues over Hudson Bay and eastern and central Canada. There is a vigorous upper level low pressure area is about 500 miles off the northern California coast over the Pacific Ocean. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 55 to 65 mph.

After morning low clouds “burn off,” we’ll still see some sunshine.. return southerly surface wind and warmer temperatures will prevail today into tomorrow as surface high pressure continues to moves off to the east of the area as low pressure develops to our northwest.

As the south southeasterly surface winds brings back low level moisture, clouds will increase Saturday night into Sunday before yet another cold front is forecast to move across the area by Sunday night into early Monday. Current forecast guidance suggests enough low level moisture and instability available for a round of rain.. rain showers and even a few thunderstorms for Sunday into Sunday night as the front approaches the area and moves through the area. Current guidance suggests upwards of 1/2 inch of rain can be expected late Saturday night into Sunday night as this front moves through.

Skies will partially clear with much cooler temperatures for the first part of next week. Clouds will increase with the reappearance of rain chances by the middle part of next week as an overrunning pattern (moisture “overrunning” the cooler air at the surface) again developing across our area. Clouds will break again by next Thursday as the air mass dries out a bit.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is moderate to high through tomorrow. My forecast confidence falls back to medium to high for Sunday through Sunday night (rain and thunderstorm chances and frontal passage time being the issues) and then again high confidence for Monday into Tuesday of next week.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast….

by troyk | on Feb 27, 2014 | Comments Off

Updated 945am CT – Thursday / 27 February 2014

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

by troyk | on Feb 27, 2014 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 27 February 2014

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 54 to 58. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more southeasterly in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 43 to 47. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds.. then becoming partly cloudy and much warmer. High 73 to 77. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early. Low clouds late with patchy fog and drizzle developing after midnight. Low 58 to 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Patchy morning fog and drizzle.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 74 to 78. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. A partly cloudy evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and drizzle after midnight with a few rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 61 to 65. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Patchy morning fog and drizzle otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 73 to 77. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms as a cold front passes through the area by 8pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Decreasing clouds and much cooler after midnight. Southeasterly wind shifting northerly 10 to 20 mph.

MONDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming partly cloudy midday into the afternoon. High 51 to 55. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 32 to 36. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 50 to 54. Light east northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy after 9pm with a few patches of light rain developing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 37 to 41. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few patches of light rain. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less.  High 52 to 56. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 6 March 2014 through Wednesday / 12 March 2014…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (27 February)…………………………….. 6:59 am
Sunset this evening (27 February)………………………………. 6:29 pm
Sunrise Friday (28 February)……………………………………… 6:58 am
Sunset Friday (28 February)………………………………………. 6:29 pm