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TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Nov 12, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CST Tuesday / 11 November 2013

…. A Strong Cold Front Moves Through As Colder Air Moves South ….
…. The NWS has Issued Freeze Warnings for Many Areas ….
…. A More Unsettled Period with Rain Chances Late Week into Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a southward moving cold front extends from western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee across Mississippi into south central Texas and then west northwestward across far west Texas and New Mexico. Surface high pressure.. ushering in the coldest air of the season over the Mississippi Valley and the great plains.. is centered behind the front over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are becoming gusty northerly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deepening trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends south southwestward across the eastern 2/3rds of the USA. Another strong upper level low is off the northwest coast of the USA. As a result of the overall upper level wind flow, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly 20 to 30 mph.

As the deep upper air trough continues over the eastern half of the country and our upper level winds have become stronger west northwesterly, the cold front is moving southward across the area. Clouds will be picking up as the colder air continues to move south into the area with the clouds decreasing my later today into tonight.

Much cooler temperatures.. in fact, the coldest of the fall season so far.. will continue to move into the area. With winds lightening up by later tonight, it is very likely that early morning temperatures tomorrow and Thursday morning, assuming a clear sky, will fall to near the freezing mark especially in outlying and low lying areas. In any case,
NWS offices around our area have issued freeze warnings for tonight. A freeze warning has been issued.. effective 12 midnight tonight through 9am tomorrow.. for the Austin metro area including Travis, Williamson, Hays, Milam, Burnet and Blanco counties. The freezing temperatures in the metro area will likely be away from the downtown area in outlying and low lying areas.

As this strong surface high moves eastward by the end of the week and as another low pressure storm system gathers over the western USA, we’ll see a fairly rapid return to warmer temperatures and clouds by as early as late Thursday into Friday. Rain chances even show up by as early as late Friday through our upcoming weekend.

Another cold front.. again, rather strong in nature.. will move through the area next Monday with a slim chance of rain. Cooler temperatures and clearing skies will follow for Monday night into Tuesday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very forecast confidence through Thursday into Friday (some question about exactly how chilly it gets at night and when the clouds pick up Thursday into Friday) with a moderate to high confidence forecast for the weekend into early next week (regarding rain chances and the exact timing of the next cold front).

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast….

by troyk | on Nov 11, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 1145am CT – Monday / 11 November 2013

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Area Forecast….

by troyk | on Nov 11, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CST.. Monday / 11 November 2013

TODAY…. Partly cloudy. Highs 72 to 76. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more southeasterly late in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 54 to 58. Light southeasterly wind becoming more northerly after midnight.

TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy.. windy and colder as a cold front passes. A few light sprinkles possible with trace rainfall amounts. Temperatures in the 60s in the morning will fall into the 50s in the afternoon. Northerly wind 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 31 in outlying and low lying areas to 32 to 36 in other areas. Northerly wind decreasing to 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. Highs 50 to 54. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 30 in outlying and low lying areas to 31 to 35 elsewhere. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. High 58 to 62. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles after midnight. Low 45 to 49. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy and warmer with a 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. High 68 to 72. Southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 57 to 61. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 74 to 78. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 59 to 63. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 75 to 79. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 18 November 2013  through Sunday / 24 November 2013…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (11 November)………………………………. 6:53 am
Sunset this evening (11 November)……………………………….. 5:36 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (12 November)…………………………………… 6:54 am
Sunset Tuesday (12 November)……………………………………. 5:36 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Nov 11, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CST Monday / 11 November 2013

…. A Strong Cold Front Moves Through Tonight Into Tomorrow ….
…. A More Unsettled Period with Rain Chances Late Week into Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. a ridge.. or line.. of surface high pressure extends from Virginia southwestward into Arkansas and east Texas. A strong cold front extends from the southern Great Lakes into Kansas and then northwestward as a stationary front into northern Colorado and Wyoming and western Montana. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure is deepening and extending southwestward from Kansas into far west Texas and New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are light easterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deepening trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends south southwestward across the eastern 2/3rds of the USA. Another strong upper level low is off the northwest coast of the USA. As a result of the overall upper level wind flow, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly 20 to 30 mph.

As the upper air trough deepens over the eastern half of the country and our upper level winds become more northwesterly and increase with speed, the cold front to our distant north will race southward across Texas. Since the surface winds have had a hard time becoming southeasterly (with the slow departure of the surface high to our east and northeast) and moisture return has been very meager, we will not see much of a rain chance with the front as it moves across the local area around sunrise tomorrow. A few sprinkles are possible but that’s about it with only trace rainfall amounts, if any, expected.

Much cooler temperatures.. in fact, the coldest of the fall season so far.. and clearing skies are expected by late in the day tomorrow into tomorrow night. With winds lightening up, it is very likely that early morning temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, assuming a clear sky, will fall to near the freezing mark especially in outlying and low lying areas. Guidance does suggest the return of some high level clouds by Thursday morning; if this materializes, temperatures would not be as cold.
NWS offices around our area are talking about the possibility of issuing frost/freeze warnings so we need to monitor the latest information from them.

As the strong surface high moves eastward by the end of the week and as another low pressure storm system gathers over the western USA, we’ll see a fairly rapid return to warmer temperatures and clouds. Rain chances even show up with the clouds and warmer temperatures by as early as late Friday night through our upcoming weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very forecast confidence through the middle and latter part of the week with a moderate forecast confidence for next weekend (regarding  rain chances).

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast….

by troyk | on Nov 08, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 945am CT – Friday / 8 November 2013

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