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TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Dec 18, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT Wednesday / 18 December 2013

…. Clouds and Humidity Picks Up Tonight and Tomorrow Through Late Week ….
…. Upper Air Storm System and Cold Front Due Next Late Friday into the Weekend ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a surface high pressure area extends from the western Tennessee into east Texas with another surface high is over eastern Utah and western Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure separates the two and extends southward from western Kansas and west Texas into far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low pressure trough is moving off the eastern seaboard of the USA and southeastern Canada. Another upper level low pressure disturbance is over the Pacific Ocean just west of the San Francisco Bay area of northern California. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly 20 to 30 mph.

A dry and stable weather pattern continues with abundant sunshine expected through today with temperatures slowly warming up.

Southerly surface winds are returning and will be returning low level moisture with clouds becoming more common. This morning we did see some dense fog.. with visibilities as low as a quarter of a mile.. just to our south around the New Braunfels area. Late night and early morning low clouds and light drizzle will be possible  tomorrow as well as Friday morning.

An upper air low pressure disturbance will move eastward into northern Mexico and the southwestern United States by late in the week and then pass over the area with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. As the disturbance moves by late Saturday, another cold front will settle southward through the area late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

In the wake of the cold front, clouds will break with sunshine returning to the area by midday Sunday into early next week with slightly below average temperatures.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high today. For tomorrow through Saturday, my forecast confidence falls to medium to high (exact timing of rain, exact rain chances and the timing of the cold front still a question). My forecast confidence returns to very high for Sunday into early next week.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

by troyk | on Dec 17, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 17 December 2013

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 67 to 71. Southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early.. some low clouds after midnight. Low 39 to 43. Light south southwesterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 70 to 74. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 47 to 51. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY….  Morning low clouds and patchy drizzle.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 73 to 77. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 55 to 59. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. High 75 to 79. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 53 to 57. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming northerly as a cold front passes after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with a 40% chance of rain and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 62 to 66. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 43 to 47. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 53 to 57. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 33 to 37. Light northeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly Sunny. High 53 to 57. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 24 December 2013  through Monday / 30 December 2013…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 December)…………………………….. 7:21 am
Sunset this evening (17 December)………………………………. 5:33 pm
Sunrise Wednesday (18 December)……………………………… 7:22 am
Sunset Wednesday (18 December)………………………………. 5:34 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Dec 17, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT Tuesday / 17 December 2013

…. Drier Weather.. Sunshine.. Warming Trend Continues ….
…. Clouds and Humidity Picks Up Tonight and Tomorrow Through Late Week ….
…. Upper Air Storm System and Cold Front Due Next Late Friday into the Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a surface high pressure area extends from the Texas coast to the Florida panhandle with another surface high is over eastern Utah and western Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure separates the two and extends southward from southwestern Oklahoma into far southwest Texas. A southward moving cold front extends southwestern Pennsylvania into western Tennessee and northeastern Arkansas where it turns stationary and extends northwestward into the plains. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are west southwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low pressure trough is over eastern Canada and the eastern half of the USA. A ridge.. or line.. of upper level high pressure is over the western coastal areas of Mexico. Another upper level low pressure disturbance is over the Pacific Ocean well west of the San Francisco Bay area of northern California. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 25 to 35 mph.

A dry and stable weather pattern continues with abundant sunshine expected through today with temperatures slowly warming up.

By later tonight into tomorrow through the latter part of the week, southerly surface winds will return low level moisture with clouds becoming more common with late night and early morning low clouds and light drizzle possible particularly Thursday and Friday morning.

An upper air low pressure disturbance will move eastward into northern Mexico and the southwestern United States by late in the week and then pass over the area with a chance of rain and even a few thunderstorms. As the disturbance moves by, another cold front will settle southward in the wake of the system into the area with some overrunning clouds and rainfall possible Saturday and Saturday night.

Clouds will break with sunshine returning to the area by Sunday into early next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high today through tomorrow. For Thursday through Saturday, my forecast confidence falls to medium (exact timing of rain, exact rain chances and the timing of the cold front still a big question). My forecast confidence returns to high to very high for Sunday into early next week.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast….

by troyk | on Dec 16, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 945am CT – Monday / 16 December 2013

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

by troyk | on Dec 16, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 16 December 2013

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 64 to 68. Southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 31 to 35. Light southwesterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 67 to 71. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early.. some low clouds after midnight. Low 36 to 40. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 70 to 74. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 47 to 51. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY….  Morning low clouds and patchy drizzle.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 73 to 77. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 55 to 59. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. High 75 to 79. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and turning a little cooler with a 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 40 to 44. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming northerly as a cold front passes.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with a 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. High 63 to 67. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 43 to 47. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 53 to 57. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 23 December 2013  through Sunday / 29 December 2013…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 December)…………………………….. 7:21 am
Sunset this evening (16 December)………………………………. 5:33 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (17 December)………………………………….. 7:21 am
Sunset Tuesday (17 December)…………………………………… 5:33 pm