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by troyk | on Feb 19, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 19 February 2018

… Dynamic and Changing Weather Pattern Through This Week …
… A Cold Front Moves Through Wednesday Afternoon …
… Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues Late Week into the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a southward moving cold front is located from northwestern Missouri into a surface low over northeastern Kansas then southwestward into northern Oklahoma and the central Texas panhandle into northeastern New Mexico and northwestward into Colorado and into another developing low pressure storm system in eastern Utah. A cold front extends from the low into southwestern Utah and then into western Arizona and the northwestern Baja Peninsula. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are south southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a deepening trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southwestward from west of Hudson Bay into California, Arizona and the Baja Peninsula. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly 60 to 70 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

As we start the new week, our atmosphere is turning much more moist and more unstable. This is happening as the cold front, to our distant north, pushes slowly southward and the dynamic upper level trough, to our distant northwest, pushes slowly eastward. As these features approaches, atmospheric lift will be increasing as well.

As a result, rain showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous over the next 24 hours with excessive rainfall expected particularly as the initial cold front passes Wednesday afternoon. While severe thunderstorms are not expected, the rain showers and thunderstorms will be quite efficient rainfall producers given the available atmospheric moisture. In general, most areas will, on average, received somewhere between 1 and 3 inches of rain over the next seven days with isolated higher totals. This will result in some localized flood problems in our area especially Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Even with the passage of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and resultant cooling, we’ll continue rain shower and thunderstorm chances back in cooler air since the upper air low pressure area will remain to the west and will eject upper air disturbances late week through the weekend.

Another cold front will move into the area by Sunday with rain and thunderstorms chances persisting even after this second cold frontal passage.

Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Monday / 19 February 2018

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk by late afternoon. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 76. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. An 80% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 73. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. An 80% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. Periods of heavy rain with localized flooding problems. Turning cooler by mid to late afternoon as a cold front passes. A 90% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1 to 2 inches. High 68. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming northerly wind 8 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 42. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 55. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 50. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy and warmer with scattered rain showers. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 67. Light northeasterly wind becoming east southeasterly in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 58. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the morning with an associated lightning risk as a cold front moves through the area. A 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Becoming partly cloudy and less humid in the afternoon. High 67. Southerly winds shifting north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 26 February 2018 through Sunday / 04 March 2018…
Temperature… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 February)………………………………….. 7:07 am
Sunset this evening (19 February)……………………………………. 6:23 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 February)………………………………………. 7:06 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 February)……………………………………….. 6:23 pm

by troyk | on Feb 16, 2018 | Comments Off

Troy’s Audio Weather Webcast for Friday / 16 February 2018….

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(Note: If my Audio Weather Webcast is not properly linked
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check out my UT weather website…
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by troyk | on Feb 16, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 16 February 2018

… Cold Front Today with Clouds and Rain Chances Persist …
… Clouds and Better Thunderstorm Chances for Early/Mid Parts of Next Week …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a southward moving cold front is located from the Missouri bootheel through northern and eastern Arkansas into a surface low in extreme southeastern Oklahoma. The cold front continues into north and central Texas then into west Texas and northern and central New Mexico. Surface high pressure is to our east over Florida. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are light southerly.

On the upper air map… a broad trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southwestward from Hudson Bay into southern California and the northern Baja Peninsula. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are west southwesterly 50 to 60 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The area of upper air low pressure out west and the associated surface cold front, just to our northwest, will move across Texas by midday and afternoon today. Clouds and rain chances will persist as the system passes. The clouds and rain chances will persist behind the front tonight and tomorrow into Sunday and into the new week. Temperatures will slowly warming by Sunday into early next week. As temperatures warm, we’ll see a more unstable environment develop with more rain showers and thunderstorms for Monday into Tuesday.

Precipitation will peak as another upper level low pressure disturbance and cold front moves into the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with clouds and precipitation continuing in an “overrunning” pattern after the cold front passes.

NWS Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall, during the Monday through Wednesday time period, will average between 1/2 and 1 1/2 inch.

Have a good Friday and a safe weekend..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Friday / 16 February 2018

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 69. Southwesterly wind becoming westerly in the morning then north northeasterly 8 to 15 mph by midday and afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered patches of rain. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 47. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered patches of rain. A 50% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 57. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered patches of rain. Patchy fog after midnight. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average a few hundredths of an inch. Low 50. East northeasterly wind becoming light after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Cloudy and a little warmer with scattered patches of rain and a few rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 69. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered patches of rain and a few rain showers. Light drizzle and patchy fog developing late. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 60. Light south southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Cloudy and a little warmer with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 61. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and turning a little cooler with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes. A 80% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 50. Southerly wind becoming northerly 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and much cooler with rain showers and isolated thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 54. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 41. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 55. Light northeasterly wind becoming light east southeasterly wind by late afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 23 February 2018 through Thursday / 01 March 2018…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 February)………………………………….. 7:10 am
Sunset this evening (16 February)……………………………………. 6:20 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 February)………………………………………. 7:09 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 February)……………………………………….. 6:21 pm

by troyk | on Feb 15, 2018 | Comments Off

Troy’s Audio Weather Webcast for Thursday / 15 February 2018….

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

 
(Note: If my Audio Weather Webcast is not properly linked
here (usually because of Go Daddy hosting problems), please
check out my UT weather website…
https://weather.utexas.edu/ )

by troyk | on Feb 15, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 15 February 2018

… Clouds and Rain Chances Persist …
… Cold Front Tomorrow with Clouds and Rain Chances Through the Weekend …
… Clouds and Better Thunderstorm Chances for Early/Mid Parts of Next Week …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is over the southeastern USA and Florida with a low pressure area over northern Kansas. From the low, a cold front extends south southwestward into western Oklahoma and west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly.

On the upper air map… a deepening trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southwestward from Hudson Bay into the California and the southwestern USA. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly 45 to 55 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

As the deepening upper air low pressure trough to our west moves slowly east southeastward, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to move northward with clouds and rain chances continue across the area. Temperatures will be warmer than seasonal averages today. The latest NWS Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests 1/10th inch or rain or less for our local area through tonight.

The area of upper air low pressure out west and an associated surface cold front will move across Texas by tomorrow afternoon. Clouds and rain chances will persist as the system passes tomorrow into tomorrow night. The clouds and rain chances will persist in the post frontal environment Saturday through Sunday and into the new week with temperatures slowly warming by Sunday into early next week. As temperatures warm, we’ll see a more unstable environment develop with more rain showers and thunderstorms for Monday into Tuesday.

Precipitation will peak as another upper level low pressure disturbance and cold front moves into the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with clouds and precipitation continuing in an “overrunning” pattern after the cold front passes.

NWS Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall, during the Monday through Wednesday time period, will average between 1/2 and 1 1/2 inch.

Have a good Thursday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 15 February 2018

TODAY…. Light drizzle and patchy fog in the morning. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy and much warmer. High 78. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog developing late. Low 59. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 69. Southwesterly wind becoming westerly in the morning then north northeasterly 8 to 18 mph by afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered patches of rain. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 46. North northeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph.

SATURDAY…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered patches of rain. A 50% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 55. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered patches of rain. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average a few hundredths of an inch. Low 50. East northeasterly wind becoming light after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Cloudy and a little warmer with a few patches of rain. A 20% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average trace amounts. High 67. Light wind becoming southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few patches of rain. Light drizzle and patchy fog developing late. A 20% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average trace amounts. Low 58. Light south southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Cloudy and a little warmer with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 58. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and turning a little cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 50. Southerly wind becoming northerly 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and a little cooler with scattered rain showers. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch. High 60. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 22 February 2018 through Wednesday / 28 February 2018…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (15 February)………………………………….. 7:11 am
Sunset this evening (15 February)……………………………………. 6:20 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (16 February)………………………………………. 7:10 am
Sunset tomorrow (16 February)……………………………………….. 6:21 pm