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TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Mar 19, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 19 March 2015

.. Another Strong Upper Level Low Pressure Storm Systems on the Way ..
.. Second Weather System Passes Late Tomorrow into Saturday ..
.. Two to Four Inches or More of Rainfall Possible Friday through Saturday ..

On this Thursday morning…. a weak stationary front is just north of our area and extends from central Louisiana west northwestward through central and north central Texas then into west Texas and central New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong upper level low pressure disturbance is located over southwestern Arizona and the northern part of the Baja Peninsula. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly at 35 to 45 mph.

The strong upper level disturbance.. to our distant west.. will be approaching the area by later this afternoon into tonight with abundant atmospheric moisture in place across the area. The approaching upper level storm will combine with the weakening stationary front just to our north to result in renewed rain and thunderstorm chances beginning by daybreak tomorrow.

Once the rain begins it will continue across the area through tomorrow night through Saturday before slowly decreasing Saturday night. Given some atmospheric instability, there will be some embedded thunderstorms as the system passes. Forecast precipitation amounts.. in both the manual NWS guidance as well as the atmospheric model output.. have increased with upwards of 2 to 4 inches of rain possible tomorrow through Saturday and Saturday night. NWS Austin-San Antonio meteorologists are suggesting that some isolated spots may see as much as 6 to 8 inches of rain. They have already issued a Flash Flood Watch (it doesn’t go into effect until 4pm tomorrow). Local interests throughout south central Texas.. especially with numerous events going on around the area.. are strongly encouraged to monitor the latest information regarding this potential heavy rain/flood event for tomorrow into the upcoming weekend.

As the upper level low pressure area moves more overhead tomorrow, the front to the north will turn back into a cold front and surge southeastward across the area resulting in cooler temperatures beginning tomorrow into the weekend.

After rain chances decrease Saturday night into early Sunday, clouds will break a bit Sunday into Monday.

Another relatively strong cold front will move southeastward through the area by daybreak next Wednesday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through the week and into the weekend. The main questions will be the precipitation timing and amounts as well as flash flood potential.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (645am CT-Wed/18Mar2015)

by troyk | on Mar 18, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Mar 18, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 18 March 2015

TODAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 3/4 inch. High 72. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 62. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 62. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy and turning cooler as a cold front passes by midday. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms likely. Periods of heavier rain possible. Rainfall, given an 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 68. Southerly wind shifting north northwesterly 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall, given an 80% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. Low 53. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous patches of rain and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 3/4 inch. High 66. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered patches of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 50. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 69. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 51. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 71. Light south southeasterly wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers as a cold front passes. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 56. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph shifting northerly.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 65. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 25 March 2015 through Tuesday / 31 March 2015…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 March)…………………………………………. 7:37 am
Sunset this evening (18 March)…………………………………………… 7:41 pm
Sunrise Thursday (19 March)……………………………………………… 7:36 am
Sunset Thursday (19 March)………………………………………………. 7:42 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Mar 18, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 18 March 2015

.. Low Pressure Storm Systems Crosses Overhead ..
.. Second Weather System Passes Late Tomorrow into Saturday ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Decrease Tonight.. Return Tomorrow Night..
.. Two or More Inches of Rainfall Possible Late Week ..

On this Wednesday morning…. a weakening cold front extends from Alabama and Mississippi westward across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into north and central Texas then northwestward into west Texas and New Mexico and western Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong upper level low pressure disturbance is over central and west Texas. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southerly at 50 to 60 mph.

The upper level low pressure area is creating abundant atmospheric lift over the area with widespread precipitation.

The upper air disturbance will move east of the area by tonight with precipitation decreasing although clouds are expected to hold across the area.

Another strong upper level disturbance combined with a southeastward moving weak cold front will result in renewed rain and thunderstorm chances by late tomorrow into Saturday with the clouds and rain chances extending into the weekend as well. Another couple inches of rain is possible with this weather system as it passes overhead.

Clouds will break a bit Sunday into Monday with another cold front and slim rain chances by late Monday into Monday night.

Temperatures will be at or slightly above average over the next few days with temperatures cooling a bit to below average Friday with a cold front before returning to near average by late in the weekend. Temperatures will cool again by Tuesday with that next cold front.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through the week and into the weekend. The main questions will be the exact probability for rain as well as precipitation timing and amounts.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (1015am CT-Tues/17Mar2015)

by troyk | on Mar 17, 2015 | Comments Off

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.