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TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Dec 15, 2014 | Comments Off

Updated 800am CT – Monday / 15 December 2014

…. A Cold Front Moving Across Texas ….
…. Another Storm System Due Tomorrow Night into Late Week with Rain Chances ….
…. Another More Vigorous Storm System for the Days Before Christmas ….

On this Monday morning…. a low pressure area is over northeastern Kansas with a weak Pacific cold front extending southward into northeast Texas and then just east of the IH35 corridor to near Laredo. A stronger secondary cold front extends from the low pressure area into north central Texas then westward to south of Lubbock then northwestward into Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are westerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong upper level low pressure area is located over northeastern Kansas. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly 55 to 65 mph.

In the wake of a cloudy and damp Sunday, a Pacific front moved through the area earlier this morning with drier air filtering in from the west with clearing skies from west to east as well.
This drier air will allow for afternoon warming to well above average temperatures today.

By later this afternoon, a secondary stronger cold front will move through the area with high pressure building in from the north and a drier and more stable air mass prevailing through tomorrow.

Another quick moving upper level low pressure storm system will approach the area by Tuesday night into Wednesday with clouds and rain chances quickly returning to our area. As the system moves overhead, we’ll see a better chance of thunderstorms by Thursday into Thursday night. As the system departs, another surface cold front will move through by daybreak on Friday with a high pressure area once again building in with drier and more stable air with abundant sunshine Friday through the weekend.

Longer range guidance suggests another.. even more vigorous.. upper air low pressure storm system moves across Texas by late next Monday.. Tuesday and Wednesday. Clouds and rain chances will once again return with some potential for much colder air to arrive in the area by Christmas Day.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through tomorrow (Tuesday). My confidence falls back to high tomorrow night through Thursday night into early Friday with rainfall timing and amounts being the question. My forecast confidence rises back to very high for Friday through next weekend. For Monday and beyond next week, my forecast confidence is low.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Dec 12, 2014 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 12 December 2014

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy for the midday and afternoon hours. High 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few patches of rain developing after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 57. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 70. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the area after midnight. Turning breezy and cooler. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average an additional 1/4 inch. Low 49. Southwesterly wind shifting north northwesterly 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY…. A few clouds in the morning otherwise mostly sunny.. breezy and cooler. High 63. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s in outlying and low lying areas to near 41 in the city. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 58. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s in outlying and low lying areas to near 40 in the city. Light northeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy in the morning then mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a few sprinkles developing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 59. Light east northeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average an additional 1/10 inch or less. Low 46. Light easterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average an additional 1/4 inch. High 61. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 19 December 2014 through Thursday / 25 December 2014…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (12 December)…………………………………………… 7:18 am
Sunset this evening (12 December)……………………………………………. 5:31 pm
Sunrise Saturday (13 December)……………………………………………….. 7:19 am
Sunset Saturday (13 December)………………………………………………… 5:32 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Dec 12, 2014 | Comments Off

Updated 800am CT – Friday / 12 December 2014

…. Clouds Break A Little Going into the Weekend ….
…. Rain Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Again Sunday and Sunday Night ….
…. Cooler and Drier Weather for Early Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over western Tennessee and Kentucky. Another surface high pressure area is centered over the four corners region. The two high pressure areas are separated by a stationary front extending northwestward from north Texas to the Colorado and Kansas border. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light southeastward.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong upper level low pressure area is located over Maine. The strong/dynamic upper level low pressure storm system is moving northeastward through British Columbia with a broad trough extending southward to along the California coast. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are northwesterly 10 to 20 mph.

The weakening upper air disturbance, that has been affecting Texas over the last 24 hours, is continuing to move east northeastward with clouds lingering across the area.

We’ll see clouds break with some sunshine expected during the day today into tomorrow before another stronger upper air disturbance and surface cold front moves into the area by Sunday into Sunday night. This second weather system appears to be a little more dynamic with increased clouds and rain shower and thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast for as early as Saturday night and then peaking Sunday and Sunday night. I expected, based on the current guidance, that the cold front will pass through our local area around midnight Sunday night. Isolated heavier thunderstorms may accompany this system with rainfall guidance suggesting upwards of 1/2 inch with the system.

It appears that a drier and cooler weather pattern will develop in the wake of the Sunday night/Monday morning upper air low pressure storm system and cold front.

Another low pressure storm system approaches and moves into Texas by the end of next week with increased clouds and the return to rain and maybe even thunderstorm chances.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high Saturday night through Sunday and Sunday night with precipitation chances and timing being the uncertainties. Otherwise.. I have high to very high forecast confidence through most of the upcoming seven day forecast. My confidence does fall beginning next Wednesday night into Thursday as the next weather system approaches.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast….

by troyk | on Dec 12, 2014 | Comments Off

Updated 925am CT – Thursday / 11 December 2014

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Dec 11, 2014 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 11 December 2014

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 64. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10 inch. Low 55. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Patchy fog with a few sprinkles in the morning. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 56. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 68. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the area around midnight. Turning breezy and cooler. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average an additional 1/4 inch. Low 49. Southwesterly wind shifting north northwesterly 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY…. A few clouds in the morning otherwise mostly sunny.. breezy and cooler. High 59. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s in outlying and low lying areas to near 40 in the city. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 58. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s in outlying and low lying areas to near 40 in the city. Light northeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 60. Light east northeasterly wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 18 December 2014 through Wednesday / 24 December 2014…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (11 December)…………………………………………… 7:17 am
Sunset this evening (11 December)……………………………………………. 5:31 pm
Sunrise Friday (12 December)…………………………………………………… 7:18 am
Sunset Friday (12 December)……………………………………………………. 5:31 pm