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by troyk | on Mar 23, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 23 March 2017

.. Our Atmosphere Turning More Unstable …
.. Thunderstorm Chances Increase Ahead of a Cold Front Tomorrow ..
.. A Less Humid Saturday with Plenty of Sunshine ..
.. Another Storm System with a Chance of Thunderstorms Early/Mid Next Week ..

On this Thursday… a developing surface low pressure storm system is over Colorado with a northward moving warm front extends east southeastward through central Oklahoma to over the ArkLaTex region then east southeastward to along the Mississippi coast. A cold front extends south southwestward from the Colorado surface low through western New Mexico and then in northwestern Mexico. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep trough of low pressure extends southward from western Utah and eastern Nevada southward into northern Mexico. To the east of the trough, the upper level high pressure that has been in place over our area is weakening and retreating eastward. As a result, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are increasing and are westerly at 40 to 50 mph.

With the upper level high pressure area now weakening and having moved east of our local area, our atmosphere continues to moisten and become more unstable with the approach, as expected, of the strong upper air Pacific low pressure disturbance. As this upper level system moves eastward, a strong, dynamic surface low pressure area is developing over southern Colorado and will push eastward, with an attendant surface cold front, late tonight into tomorrow. As the atmospheric lift and instability progresses eastward across our area, rain shower and thunderstorm activity will increase after midnight tonight, with some strong thunderstorms, by daybreak tomorrow morning and picking up in coverage Friday into Friday afternoon as the cold front sweeps eastward across our area. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center outlook continues to suggest the possibility of a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat especially in areas northeast of our local area.

This weather system will be quite progressive – that is quickly moving – so precipitation will taper off quickly and skies will clear in the wake of the cold front by mid to late afternoon tomorrow as slightly cooler and drier air moves into the area from the west and northwest. In the wake of the front, surface high pressure will settle southward into Texas on Saturday with a great day with abundant sunshine.

Another low pressure area will develop quickly to our distant northwest by Saturday night into Sunday with a southerly low level wind returning with an increase in clouds by Sunday into Monday.

Our next low pressure storm system and attendant cold front appears in Texas by the early to middle part of next week with thunderstorm chances returning as early as Tuesday.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 23 March 2017

TODAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. some low clouds after midnight. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southerly winds 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, in the morning with rain chances increasing to likely by afternoon. Some stronger thunderstorms possible with a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat mainly east and northeast of Austin. A 40% chance of rain through 12 noon then increasing to 70% by midday and early afternoon; rainfall with average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Decreasing clouds and less humid in the wake of the cold front by mid and late afternoon. High around 80. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming westerly then west northwesterly by mid and late afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and cooler. Low 56. Northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 81. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming light east northeasterly by late afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear through midnight with a few low clouds developing after midnight. Low 59. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. A bit warmer and more humid. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 62. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 63. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 63. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk as a cold front passes. A 50% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 81. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming northwesterly in the afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 30 March 2017 through Wednesday / 05 April 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23 Mar)……………………………………………. 7:31 am
Sunset this evening (23 Mar)……………………………………………… 7:44 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (24 Mar)………………………………………………… 7:30 am
Sunset tomorrow (24 Mar)…………………………………………………. 7:45 pm

by troyk | on Mar 22, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 22 March 2017

.. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern Continues …
.. Our Next Cold Front Arrives Friday with Chance of Thunderstorms ..
.. Slightly Cooler and Less Humid Weekend Coming Up ..
.. Another Storm System with a Chance of Thunderstorms Early/Mid Next Week ..

On this Wednesday… a surface cold front stretches westward from central Georgia into central Mississippi and northern Louisiana into a surface low pressure area northwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex. From the surface low, the weak stationary cold front extends westward to near Midland then northwestward through New Mexico and Colorado. A dry line.. separating dry air to the west from more moist humid air to the east.. extends from the stationary front over far west Texas southward through the Texas Big Bend into northern Mexico. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, there has been little change overall since yesterday. A broad stable ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from Texas and northeastern Mexico through the eastern Rockies and western plains states. A trough, or line, of low pressure extends southward in the western Atlantic basin off the east coast of the USA with another one off the west coast of the USA. As a result, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are northwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.

With the upper level high pressure area continuing overhead and acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, a stable dry weather pattern continues across the area. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to be about 10 degrees or more above seasonal averages. Little change in this weather pattern is expected through tomorrow.

By late tomorrow into tomorrow night, a strong upper air Pacific low pressure disturbance will come ashore into the southwestern USA and will travel eastward through the southwestern states. As this occurs, a strong, dynamic surface low pressure area will develop over southern Colorado and then will push eastward, with an attendant surface cold front, Friday into Friday evening. In advance of this system, low level moisture and instability will have had the opportunity to increase. As the atmospheric lift and instability progresses eastward across our area, rain shower and thunderstorm activity, with some strong thunderstorms, by daybreak Friday morning and picking up in coverage Friday into Friday afternoon as the cold front sweeps eastward across our area. We’ll need to monitor for the possibility of severe thunderstorms with a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat but the latest guidance and NWS/Storm Prediction Center outlook suggests that severe weather will remain highest to the northeast of our local area.

Precipitation will taper off quickly and skies will clear in the wake of the cold front Friday night as slightly cooler and drier air moves into the area from the northwest. Saturday looks like a great day with abundant sunshine and temperatures only slightly above seasonal averages.

Another low pressure area will develop quickly to our distant northwest by Saturday night into Sunday with a southerly low level wind returning with an increase in clouds by Sunday.

Our next low pressure storm system appears by the early to middle part of next week with thunderstorm chances returning as early as late Monday.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 22 March 2017

TODAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 86. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early.. some low clouds after midnight. Low 65. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. some low clouds after midnight. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southerly winds 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, in the morning with rain chances increasing to likely by afternoon. Some stronger thunderstorms possible with a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat. A 40% chance of rain through 12 noon then increasing to 70% by afternoon; rainfall with average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High around 80. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming westerly then northwesterly by late in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered evening thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 8pm. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average an additional 1/4 inch. Clearing and turning a little cooler by mid and late evening. Low 58. Northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 80. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming light east northeasterly by late afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear through midnight with a few low clouds developing after midnight. Low 59. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. A bit warmer and more humid. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 62. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 63. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 29 March 2017 through Tuesday / 04 April 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (22 Mar)……………………………………………. 7:32 am
Sunset this evening (22 Mar)……………………………………………… 7:44 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (23 Mar)………………………………………………… 7:31 am
Sunset tomorrow (23 Mar)…………………………………………………. 7:45 pm

by troyk | on Mar 21, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 21 March 2017

.. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern Continues …
.. Our Next Cold Front Arrives Friday with Chance of Thunderstorms ..
.. Slightly Cooler and Less Humid Weekend Coming Up ..
.. Another Storm System with a Chance of Thunderstorms Early/Mid Next Week ..

On this Tuesday… a surface cold front stretches westward from southeastern Kentucky through northern Arkansas into a surface low over north central Oklahoma then extends westward across the northern Texas panhandle and northwestward into Colorado. A dry line.. separating dry air to the west from more moist humid air to the east.. extends from the low pressure area southwestward across the Texas south plains and into far southwest Texas around the Texas Big Bend. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, there has been little change overall since yesterday. A broad stable ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from Texas and northeastern Mexico through the plains states. A trough, or line, of low pressure extends southward in the western Atlantic basin off the east coast of the USA with another one off the west coast of the USA. As a result, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are west northwesterly at around 30 mph.

With the upper level high pressure area continuing overhead, a stable dry weather pattern continues across the area. With the high pressure area aloft, acting like an atmospheric “lid,” afternoon high temperatures will continue to be about 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. Little change in this weather pattern is expected through Thursday.

As mentioned yesterday, by Thursday into Thursday night, a strong upper air Pacific low pressure disturbance will come ashore into the southwestern USA and will travel eastward through the southwestern states. As this occurs, a strong, dynamic surface low pressure area will develop over southern Colorado and then will push eastward, with an attendant surface cold front, Friday through Friday night. In advance of this system, low level moisture and instability will have had the opportunity to increase. As the atmospheric lift and instability progresses eastward across our area, rain shower and thunderstorm activity.. with some strong thunderstorms.. by daybreak Friday morning and picking up in coverage Friday into Friday afternoon as the cold front sweeps eastward across our area. We’ll need to monitor for the possibility of severe thunderstorms with a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat.. but the latest guidance and NWS/Storm Prediction Center outlook suggests that severe weather will remain highest well to the northeast of our local area.

Precipitation will taper off quickly and skies will clear in the wake of the cold front Friday night as slightly cooler and drier air moves into the area from the northwest. Saturday looks like a great day with abundant sunshine and temperatures only slightly above seasonal averages.

Another low pressure area will develop quickly to our distant northwest by Saturday night into Sunday with a southerly low level wind returning with an increase in clouds by Sunday.

Our next low pressure storm system appears by the early to middle part of next week with thunderstorm chances returning as early as late Monday.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 21 March 2017

TODAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 64. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 88. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early.. some low clouds after midnight. Low 65. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. some low clouds after midnight. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southerly winds 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, in the morning with rain chances increasing to likely by afternoon. Some stronger thunderstorms possible with a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat. A 40% chance of rain through 12 noon then increasing to 70% by afternoon; rainfall with average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High around 80. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming westerly then northwesterly by late in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered evening thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 8pm. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average an additional 1/4 inch. Clearing and turning a little cooler by mid and late evening. Low 55. Northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 80. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming light east northeasterly by late afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear through midnight with a few low clouds developing after midnight. Low 56. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. A bit warmer and more humid. High 83. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 61. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 28 March 2017 through Monday / 03 April 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (21 Mar)……………………………………………. 7:33 am
Sunset this evening (21 Mar)……………………………………………… 7:43 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (22 Mar)………………………………………………… 7:32 am
Sunset tomorrow (22 Mar)…………………………………………………. 7:44 pm

by troyk | on Mar 20, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 20 March 2017

.. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern Through Mid into Late Week …
.. Our Next Cold Front Arrives Friday into Friday with Chance of Thunderstorms ..
.. Slightly Cooler and Less Humid Weekend Coming Up ..

On this Monday… surface high pressure is east of the area centered over the Appalachians. Low pressure is located from southern Iowa southwestward into central Kansas. A dry line.. separating dry air to the west from more moist humid air to the east.. extends from the low pressure area southwestward into south central Kansas into northwest Oklahoma through the Texas panhandle and into southeast New Mexico and west Texas east of El Paso. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are south southwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a broad stable ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from Texas and northeastern Mexico through the plains states. A trough, or line, of low pressure extends southward in the western Atlantic basin off the east coast of the USA with another one off the west coast of the USA. As a result, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are relatively light northwesterly at 15 to 25 mph.

With the upper level high pressure area overhead, a stable dry weather pattern continues across the area. With the high pressure area aloft, acting like an atmospheric “lid,” afternoon high temperatures will continue to be about 10 degrees above seasonal averages. Little change in this weather pattern is expected through Thursday.

By Thursday into Thursday night, a strong upper air low pressure disturbance will come ashore into the southwestern USA and will travel eastward through the southwestern states. As this occurs, a strong, dynamic surface low pressure area will develop over southern Colorado and then will push eastward, with an attendant surface cold front, Friday through Friday night. In advance of this system, low level moisture and instability will have had the opportunity to increase. As the atmospheric lift and instability progresses eastward across our area, rain shower and thunderstorm activity.. with some strong thunderstorms.. by daybreak Friday morning and picking up in coverage Friday into Friday night as the cold front sweeps eastward across our area. We’ll need to monitor for the possibility of severe thunderstorms with a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat.. especially to the northeast of our local area.

Precipitation will taper off quickly and skies will clear in the wake of the cold front Friday night as slightly cooler and drier air moves into the area from the northwest. Saturday looks like a great day with abundant sunshine and temperatures only slightly above seasonal averages.

Another low pressure area will develop quickly to our distant northwest by Saturday night into Sunday with a southerly low level wind returning with an increase in clouds by Sunday.

Our next low pressure storm system appears by the early to middle part of next week with thunderstorm chances returning.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 13 March 2017

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 85. Southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 62. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 62. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 86. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early.. some low clouds after midnight. Low 64. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. some low clouds after midnight. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southerly winds 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, in the morning with rain chances increasing to likely by afternoon. Some stronger thunderstorms possible with a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat. A 40% chance of rain through 12 noon then increasing to 70% by afternoon; rainfall with average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High around 80. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming westerly then northwesterly by late in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered evening thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 8pm. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average an additional 1/4 inch. Clearing and turning a little cooler by mid and late evening. Low 55. Northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 80. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming light east northeasterly by late afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear through midnight with a few low clouds developing after midnight. Low 56. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. A bit warmer and more humid. High 83. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 27 March 2017 through Sunday / 03 April 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 Mar)……………………………………………. 7:34 am
Sunset this evening (20 Mar)……………………………………………… 7:43 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (21 Mar)………………………………………………… 7:33 am
Sunset tomorrow (21 Mar)…………………………………………………. 7:43 pm

Troy’s Audio Weather Webcast for Thu/23Mar2017….

by troyk | on Mar 10, 2017 | Comments Off

Again, due to continuing chronic GoDaddy hosting problems, no audio weather webcast here.

Please visit to my University of Texas weather site for my audio weather webcast..