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by troyk | on Apr 28, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 28 April 2017

.. A Stronger Cold Front with a Chance of Thunderstorms by Late Saturday ..
.. Cooler Temperatures Sunday into Monday ..

On this Friday… a northeastward moving warm front extends southeastward from a surface low pressure area over west central Texas through east Texas into Louisiana and southern Mississippi. A cold front extends from the low pressure area through west Texas and west central New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep trough.. or line of upper level low pressure.. extends southward from central and western Canada through the western 2/3rds of the USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are west southwesterly 55 to 65 mph.

Surface winds have returned back southerly with low level moisture quickly returning to the area.

As a dynamic area of upper air low pressure moves eastward through the southwestern USA into the southern and central plains by late tonight into tomorrow, a stronger area of surface low pressure and associated cold front will advance quickly into Texas. The cold front will pass through the local area late Saturday night. With abundant low level moisture in place along with instability and atmospheric lift accompanying the system, the latest guidance from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center suggests prefrontal thunderstorms over the area with stronger, potentially severe, thunderstorms mainly in areas to our north over north and east Texas and Oklahoma and areas eastward.

A drier.. more stable and a cooler air mass will move into Texas in the wake of the front for most of the day Sunday through Sunday night into early next week.

Another low pressure area and cold front will progress southeastward across the area late next Wednesday with another chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler and drier air will advance into the area again by Wednesday night into Thursday.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 28 April 2017

TODAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm with a high of 92. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming cloudy late. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 89. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 59. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.. winds becoming more southwesterly after midnight then northwesterly toward daybreak as a cold front passes.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 7am with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Clearing.. less humid and a little cooler after mid morning. High 75. Northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear and unseasonably cool. Low 50. North northwesterly 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 80. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more east northeasterly by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 58. Light easterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunny and warmer. High 86. Southerly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Decreasing clouds after 2am. Low 59. Southwesterly wind shifting northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 77. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 05 May 2017 through Thursday / 11 May 2017…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (28 Apr)……………………………………………. 6:50 am
Sunset this evening (28 Apr)……………………………………………… 8:07 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (29 Apr)………………………………………………… 6:49 am
Sunset tomorrow (29 Apr)…………………………………………………. 8:08 pm

by troyk | on Apr 27, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 27 April 2017

.. Another Sunny Day Ahead ..
.. A Stronger Cold Front with a Chance of Thunderstorms by Late Saturday ..
.. Cooler Temperatures Sunday into Monday ..

On this Thursday… an eastward moving cold front extends from the Great Lakes to along the Mississippi/Alabama state line then into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico off the Texas coast. Surface high pressure is located over east Texas. A deepening trough, or line, of low pressure extends southward through eastern Wyoming through eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are light north northwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep trough.. or line of upper level low pressure.. is moving eastward over the central part of the USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are westerly at 70 to 80 mph.

In the wake of the front last evening, we’ve seen a change to drier and more stable air. This will be very temporary as the front returns back north northwesterly over the area by later today into tonight as surface winds pick back up from the south with low level moisture quickly returning to the area.

As a dynamic area of upper air low pressure moves eastward through the southwestern USA into the southern and central plains by late tomorrow into Saturday, a stronger area of surface low pressure and associated cold front will advance quickly into Texas. The cold front will pass through the local area Saturday night. With abundant low level moisture in place along with instability and atmospheric lift accompanying the system, the latest guidance from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center suggests prefrontal thunderstorms over the area with stronger, potentially severe, thunderstorms mainly in areas to our north over north Texas and Oklahoma and areas eastward.

A drier.. more stable and a cooler air mass will move into Texas in the wake of the front for most of the day Sunday through Sunday night into early next week.

Another low pressure area and cold front will progress southeastward across the area late next Wednesday with another chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler and drier air will advance into the area again by Wednesday night into Thursday.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 27 April 2017

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. Wind becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early with clouds increasing late. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm with a high of 93. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming cloudy late. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly ro mostly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 89. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 60. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.. winds becoming more southwesterly after midnight then northwesterly toward daybreak as a cold front passes.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 7am with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Clearing.. less humid and a little cooler morning through the afternoon. High 75. Northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear and unseasonably cool. Low 50. North northwesterly 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 80. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more east northeasterly by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 58. Light easterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunny and warmer. High 86. Southerly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes by late afternoon. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 85. Southerly wind shifting northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 04 May 2017 through Wednesday / 10 May 2017…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (27 Apr)……………………………………………. 6:51 am
Sunset this evening (27 Apr)……………………………………………… 8:06 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (28 Apr)………………………………………………… 6:50 am
Sunset tomorrow (28 Apr)…………………………………………………. 8:07 pm

by troyk | on Apr 26, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 26 April 2017

.. A Weak Cold Front Due Today ..
.. A Stronger Cold Front with a Chance of Thunderstorms by the Weekend ..

On this Wednesday… an eastward cold front extends from central Missouri southwestward through southeastern Oklahoma into a low over western north Texas then into southwest Texas and northern Mexico south of El Paso. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep trough.. or line of upper level low pressure.. is moving eastward from the Dakotas into west Texas. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are west southwesterly at 60 to 70 mph.

A cold front and dry line will advance eastward deep into Texas by this afternoon with a dry frontal passage expected. Winds will shift northwesterly with drier air moving into the area with afternoon highs continuing well above normal. Temperatures lows tonight will be cooler again simply due to the drier air place.

The change to drier air will be very temporary as the front returns back north northwesterly over the area by tomorrow. Low level moisture returns quickly to the area by late tomorrow night into Friday and the weekend.

As a dynamic area of upper air low pressure moves eastward through the southwestern USA into the southern and central plains by late Friday into Saturday, a stronger area of surface low pressure and associated cold front will advance quickly into Texas. The cold front will pass through the local area before sunrise on Sunday. With low level moisture in place along with instability and atmospheric lift accompanying the system, the latest guidance from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center suggests prefrontal thunderstorms over the area with stronger, potentially severe, thunderstorms mainly in areas to our north over north Texas and Oklahoma and areas eastward.

A drier.. more stable and a cooler air mass will move into Texas in the wake of the front for most of the day Sunday through Sunday night into early next week.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 26 April 2017

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny as a weak cold front passes in the afternoon. High 91. Southerly winds 8 to 15 mph becoming more southwesterly before shifting north northwesterly.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 54. North northwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light after midnight.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. Wind becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm with a high of 92. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming cloudy late. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 89. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 61. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.. winds becoming more southwesterly after midnight then northwesterly toward daybreak as a cold front passes.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 7am with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Clearing.. less humid and a little cooler morning through the afternoon. High 75. Northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear and unseasonably cool. Low 50. North northwesterly 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 79. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more east northeasterly by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 57. Light easterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunny and warmer. High 85. Southerly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 03 May 2017 through Tuesday / 09 May 2017…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (26 Apr)……………………………………………. 6:52 am
Sunset this evening (26 Apr)……………………………………………… 8:06 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (27 Apr)………………………………………………… 6:51 am
Sunset tomorrow (27 Apr)…………………………………………………. 8:06 pm

by troyk | on Apr 25, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 25 April 2017

.. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ..
.. A Weak Cold Front Due Tomorrow ..
.. A Stronger Cold Front with a Chance of Thunderstorms by Next Weekend ..

On this Tuesday… an eastward moving surface high pressure is located over the cental and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Surface low pressure area is developing from western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle into southeastern Colorado with a trough, or line, of low pressure southwestward into New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deepening trough.. or line of upper level low pressure.. is moving eastward from Montana and the intermountain west southwestward into the southwestern USA with another center of east northeastward moving upper level low pressure over the Carolinas. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are westerly at 25 to 35 mph.

Southerly surface winds have returned as the surface high pressure moves eastward through the Gulf of Mexico. Low level moisture, as evidenced by our morning low clouds, has returned and will continue to do so into tomorrow.

A cold front and dry line will advance eastward deep into Texas by tomorrow with a dry frontal passage expected. Winds will shift northwesterly with drier air moving into the area with afternoon highs continuing well above normal. Temperatures lows tomorrow night will be cooler again simply due to the drier air place.

The change to drier air will be very temporary as the front returns back north northwesterly over the area by late tomorrow. Low level moisture returns quickly to the area by late Wednesday night into Thursday.

As a dynamic area of upper air low pressure moves eastward through the southwestern USA into the southern and central plains by late Friday into Saturday, a stronger area of surface low pressure and associated cold front will advance quickly into Texas. The cold front will pass through the local area before sunrise on Sunday. With low level moisture in place along with instability and atmospheric lift accompanying the system, the latest guidance from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center suggests prefrontal thunderstorms over the area with stronger, potentially severe, thunderstorms mainly in areas to our north over north Texas and Oklahoma.

A drier.. more stable and a cooler air mass will move into Texas in the wake of the front for most of the day Sunday through Sunday night into early next week.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 25 April 2017

TODAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny and warmer. High 90. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny as a weak cold front passes. High 88. Southerly winds 8 to 18 mph becoming north northwesterly.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 54. North northwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light after midnight.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. Wind becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm with a high of 92. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming cloudy late. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 89. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.. winds becoming more southwesterly after midnight then northwesterly toward daybreak.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 7am with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes before daybreak. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Clearing.. less humid and a little cooler morning through the afternoon. High 75. Northwesterly 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear and unseasonably cool. Low 50. North northwesterly 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 78. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more east northeasterly by afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 02 May 2017 through Monday / 08 May 2017…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (25 Apr)……………………………………………. 6:53 am
Sunset this evening (25 Apr)……………………………………………… 8:05 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (26 Apr)………………………………………………… 6:52 am
Sunset tomorrow (26 Apr)…………………………………………………. 8:06 pm

by troyk | on Apr 24, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 24 April 2017

.. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern to Start the Week ..
.. A Weak Cold Front Mid Week ..
.. A Stronger Cold Front with a Chance of Thunderstorms by Next Weekend ..

On this Monday… eastward moving surface high pressure is located over western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. Surface low pressure area is developing from southern South Dakota southwestward into eastern Colorado with a trough, or line, of low pressure down into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are light and variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough.. or line of upper level low pressure.. is moving eastward over the northwestern USA with another center of upper level low pressure over the southeastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are westerly at 30 to 40 mph.

With the surface high pressure overhead on this Monday, we’ve got a dry and stable weather pattern in place across south central Texas.

Southerly surface winds will return by later today as the surface high pressure moves eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Low level moisture will slowly return over the next few days.

A cold front will advance eastward into Texas by Wednesday with a dry frontal passage expected. Winds will shift west northwesterly with drier air moving into the area.

The change to drier air will be very temporary as the front returns back north northwesterly over the area. Warmer temperatures along with increasing moisture will prevail late week into the weekend.

As a dynamic area of upper air low pressure moves eastward through the southwestern USA into the southern and central plains, a stronger area of surface low pressure and associated cold front will advance quickly through Texas by Saturday into Sunday with the cold front passing through the local area before sunrise on Sunday. With low level moisture in place along with instability and atmospheric lift accompanying the system, the latest guidance from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center suggests prefrontal thunderstorms over the area with stronger, potentially severe, thunderstorms mainly in areas to our north over north Texas and Oklahoma.

A drier.. more stable and a cooler air mass will move into Texas in the wake of the front for most of the day Sunday through Sunday night into Monday.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 24 April 2017

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 81. Easterly wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 63. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny and warmer. High 88. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny as a weak cold front passes. High 88. Southerly winds 8 to 18 mph becoming west northwesterly.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and a little cooler. Low 59. North northwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light after midnight.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. Wind becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 69. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm with a high of 93. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming cloudy late. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 89. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.. winds becoming more southwesterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 8am with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Clearing.. less humid and a little cooler mid and late morning through the afternoon. High 81. Southwesterly wind early shifting northwesterly 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 01 May 2017 through Sunday / 07 May 2017…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (24 Apr)……………………………………………. 6:54 am
Sunset this evening (24 Apr)……………………………………………… 8:04 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (25 Apr)………………………………………………… 6:53 am
Sunset tomorrow (25 Apr)…………………………………………………. 8:05 pm