Updated 915am CT – Friday / 29 June 2018

… A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues …
… Signs of a Change with Rain Chances for Middle into Latter Part of Next Week …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is located to our east over the lower Mississippi Valley and the southeastern USA as well as west of our area over the four corners region. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extending southwestward from southeastern Colorado into New Mexico/far west Texas and northern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are southerly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southward from the province of Alberta in western Canada south southwestward into southern California and western Arizona as well as northwestern Mexico. To the east of the trough, upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, extends eastward from the central and southern plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northerly at less than 20 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

As we wrap up the week, our atmosphere continues to be quite stable with above average afternoon temperatures expected through the weekend and into early next week. There is little or no chance of precipitation through Monday.

While atmospheric model agreement is still not good especially in timing, intensity and rainfall amounts, guidance suggests that a slug of moisture will move westward from the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico and the coastal areas of Louisiana into Texas by early next week with it moving westward to affect our local area by Wednesday into Thursday of next week. I will increase rain chances, including the possibility of thunderstorms, beginning on Wednesday (July 4th). Forecast rainfall amounts, at this point, for Wednesday into Thursday night will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch.. this forecast amount along with rainfall probabilities will be firmed up as we get closer to the event. Of course, I’ll continue to monitor this potential system as it approaches our area.

Have a good Friday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT… Friday / 29 June 2018

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear with low clouds developing around midnight. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear with low clouds developing around midnight. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear with low clouds developing around midnight. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear with low clouds developing around midnight. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with low clouds developing around 11pm. Low 76. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY / 4TH OF JULY/…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 74. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 06 July 2018 through Thursday / 12 July 2018…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (29 Jun)………………………………………… 6:32 am
Sunset this evening (29 Jun)………………………………………….. 8:37 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (30 Jun)…………………………………………….. 6:32 am
Sunset tomorrow (30 Jun)……………………………………………… 8:37 pm