Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 18 April 2018

… Rain / Thunderstorm Chances Friday Night into Saturday …
… Sunshine Returns for Sunday into the New Week …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a surface low pressure area is near Kansas City with a cold front extending south southwesterly from that low into another low pressure area along the Red River north of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex and then continuing southwestward across western parts of central Texas then westward to near Midland and then into southern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly.

On the upper air map… a series of upper level low pressure disturbances is embedded in a rather zonal (west-to-east) wind flow over the USA. The first disturbance is over northern Maine.. with another over western Iowa and eastern Nebraska and the third one off the west coast of the USA offshore off the Washington and Oregon coasts. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 50 to 55 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

A relatively weak cold front will be moving overhead of our south central Texas area this afternoon. Low level moisture return ahead of the front has resulted in low clouds this morning but I still do not think we’ll see much more than the wind shift as the front moves through by this afternoon.

A second and more potent upper level low pressure disturbance and associated stronger cold front is still expected to approach the area beginning Friday night and will finally move through the area by late Saturday into Saturday night. Unlike yesterday’s guidance, which suggested that more than sufficient moisture return along with plenty of instability in place as this system moves through, the latest guidance has really backed off the amount of moisture return that we expect in place when the system moves overhead late Saturday into Saturday night. As a result, my confidence in this part of the forecast has dropped until we can see another atmospheric computer run or two to see if this trend continues. In any case, I still expect some rain showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday night with chances peaking Saturday into Saturday night as the system moves eastward overhead. The latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance has, as well, caught on the potential for less moisture return and mentions that they may reduce the severe weather risk in later outlooks; however, for now, I will continue the possibility for a few stronger thunderstorms locally, with a possible hail and stronger straight line thunderstorm wind threat, for Saturday into Saturday night. Based on the information above, the NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance has pulled back on the forecast rainfall amounts.. now suggesting rainfall of 1/4 to 1/2 inch locally.

Once the cold front passes Saturday night, skies will clear with plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions for Sunday into the first part of next week.

Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 18 April 2018

TODAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy as a weak cold front passes in the afternoon. High 83. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting north northeasterly in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 57. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 77. East northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming partly to mostly cloudy after 11pm. Low 58. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 75. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers mainly after midnight. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/10th inch or less. Low 61. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 77. East southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more southwesterly by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the evening. A 60% chance of rain in the evening with rain chances decreasing thereafter; rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low 56. Southwesterly wind becoming northwesterly 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts by evening as the front passes.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine and less humid. High 77. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 55. Light north northeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 78. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming easterly by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 56. Light easterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 25 April 2018 through Tuesday / 01 May 2018…
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 April)………………………………………. 7:00 am
Sunset this evening (18 April)………………………………………… 8:01 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 April)…………………………………………… 6:59 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 April)……………………………………………. 8:01 pm