Daily Archives
April 13, 2018

by troyk | on Apr 13, 2018 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
345pm CT – Friday / 13 April 2018

As we go into our weekend, two weather related risks that we face here on the IH35 corridor… I will continue to monitor both of these risks…

(1) .. Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Between 6pm and 12 Midnight Tonight ..
2018.0413.2000z.fema06_swody1
Courtesy: NWS/Storm Prediction Center

As a strong upper level low pressure areas passes north of the area by tonight and an associated surface cold front moves across the IH35 corridor by midnight tonight, high resolution model guidance suggests that a few strong thunderstorms may develop just to our west or overhead between 6 and 8pm tonight and progress east southeast across the area.
Larger hail and damaging straight line thunderstorm winds are the biggest threat along with a lesser risk of tornadoes. The severe weather risk will be greatest in areas to the north, northeast and east of the Austin area proper. Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms that develop.

Any outdoor activities this evening into tonight should be weather aware and be ready to seek safe shelter if thunderstorms develop.

—-

(2) .. A Wildfire Risk for Tomorrow into Tomorrow Night ..
.. A Fire Weather Watch Has Been Issued for the IH35 Corridor and Westward ..

Please pay close attention to the latest information tomorrow into tomorrow night from local officials reference this wildfire risk.

Authority: NWS Austin/San Antonio

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
308 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for areas west of the
Interstate 35 corridor due to very low relative humidities and
strong north winds Saturday morning through Saturday evening...

.A dry-line is currently moving through Val Verde and Edwards counties
and will continue east through the remainder of the afternoon and 
evening. Gusty west and northwest winds and very low relative 
humidity values will continue to develop behind it this afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts around 30 mph and RH values bottoming out around
5 to 15 percent will develop through the late afternoon. When 
combined with dry fuels this result in critical fire weather 
conditions and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Val Verde, 
Kinney, and Edwards counties. 

A cold front is forecast to move through late tonight. Strong north 
winds will develop behind the front on Saturday, with drier air 
filtering into the rest of the region. Wind gusts to around 30 mph 
with minimum RH values in the teens to 20s will result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions on Saturday. A Fire Weather 
Watch is in effect for areas near and west of I-35 and could be
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning tomorrow.

Dry and warmer conditions for Monday and Tuesday, and a breezy 
southerly wind could lead to elevated fire weather conditions in some
areas.

TXZ173-191-192-206-141100-
/O.EXA.KEWX.FW.A.0004.180414T1600Z-180415T0000Z/
Williamson-Hays-Travis-Comal-
308 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 
CORRIDOR...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a
Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. 

* AFFECTED AREA...All locations west of the Interstate 35 
  corridor. 

* WIND...North winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* HUMIDITY...15 to 25 percent.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

by troyk | on Apr 13, 2018 | Comments Off

Troy’s Audio Weather Webcast for Friday / 13 April 2018….

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(Note: If my Audio Weather Webcast is not properly linked
here (usually because of Go Daddy hosting problems), please
check out my UT weather website…
https://weather.utexas.edu/ )

by troyk | on Apr 13, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 13 April 2018

… Slim Rain Chances Today into Tonight with Passing Cold Front …
… Clearing with Cooler Temperatures for the Weekend …
… Overall, A Dry Seven Day Forecast ….

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a deepening surface low pressure area is over north central and northeast Kansas with a cold front extending west southwestward through southeastern Colorado into northwest New Mexico and central Arizona. A dry line.. separating drier continental tropical air (think hot and dry) to the west from maritime tropical air (warm and humid) to the east.. extends from the surface low southward into western Oklahoma into southwest Texas east of the Texas Big Bend.
Surface high pressure is well to the east over the Atlantic Ocean off the eastern USA seaboard. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly.

On the upper air map… a deep dynamic trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends southward from Montana into New Mexico. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly 60 to 70 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Surface high pressure continues well east of the area with southerly winds prevailing. Late night and early morning low clouds are present over the area as a result of abundant moisture return off of the Gulf of Mexico.

By later today into tonight, the well developed upper level low pressure storm system to our west and the associated cold front, to our distant northwest, will cross Texas and the central USA with increased rain and thunderstorm chances mainly in areas to our north, northeast and east. The rain chances peak later this afternoon into tonight as the system passes.

Abundant sunshine with cooler temperatures will prevail for our weekend. The dry weather pattern will continue through much of next week with temperatures warming a bit. Our next cold front, after the one tonight into early tomorrow, will move through the area by the end of next week into the following weekend.

Over the next seven days, NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall locally will average 1/4 inch or less. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has outlooked areas to our northeast over northeast Texas and the overall ArkLaTex region for the possibility of severe thunderstorms today into tonight. A few of those stronger thunderstorms may occur later today into tonight along and east of the IH35 corridor counties and into areas to our distant east and northeast.

Have a good Friday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Friday / 13 April 2018

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the mid and late afternoon, with an associated lightning risk mainly in areas east of the IH35 corridor. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk, mainly in areas east of the IH35 corridor, as a cold front passes by mid to late evening. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Cooler with clouds decreasing late. Low 54. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts shifting north northwesterly.

SATURDAY…. A few clouds early, otherwise sunshine and cooler. High 70. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 44. Northerly wind decreasing to 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 74. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 47. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 79. Light wind becoming south southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 55. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 82. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 60. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 62. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 20 April 2018 through Thursday / 26 April 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (13 April)………………………………………. 7:06 am
Sunset this evening (13 April)………………………………………… 7:57 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (14 April)…………………………………………… 7:05 am
Sunset tomorrow (14 April)……………………………………………. 7:58 pm