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April 6, 2018

by troyk | on Apr 06, 2018 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
835am CT – Friday / 06 April 2018

.. A Few Stronger Thunderstorms Possible Along Strong Cold Front Later Today into Tonight  ..
.. The Biggest Part of This Weather Story May Be the Much Cooler Temperatures on the Way ..

Primary Hazards Expected and Time Periods (My Confidence) …
…. Frequent Dangerous Cloud to Ground Lightning …. (High to Very High Confidence)
…. Larger Hail Threat Mainly Northeast of Austin Metro …. (Low to Moderate Confidence)
…. Strong Straight Line Thunderstorm Wind Threat
Mainly Northeast of Austin Metro …. (Low to Moderate Confidence)

Current NWS Watches / Advisories / Warnings ….
There are no current NWS watches, advisories and/or warnings in effect for our IH35 corridor counties..
A severe weather (tornado or severe thunderstorm) watch is possible later today into tonight in the counties mainly to our northeast.

Weather Discussion ….

I had to think about whether or not I was going to issue this update; this is a borderline case for severe thunderstorms, I think, for the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor counties. The most significant risk of severe thunderstorms, based on the latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance, is going to be to our distant northeast mainly over the Ark-La-Tex region centered on the Tyler, Longview, Texarkana, Shreveport, LA, Monroe, LA, Jackson, MS corridor area.

An upper air low pressure disturbance, now moving through the southwestern USA, will move eastward across the southern plains and accompanied at the surface by a strong cold front that will pass through the IH35 corridor between 7pm and 11pm tonight. As the surface front and upper air disturbance approaches, we’ll see increased atmospheric instability and atmospheric lift with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing in advance of the weather system.

Given the fairly progressive, or fast moving, nature of the front and upper air disturbance, I think rainfall amounts at any given location will be limited to 1/4″ or less.

The threat of stronger thunderstorms will end rapidly as the cold front passes between 7pm and 11pm tonight. This may actually be the biggest part of this weather story given the fact that clouds will be a bit slower to clear tomorrow with high temperatures between 20 and 30 degrees cooler than today. Overnight lows tonight, in the wake of the front, as well as tomorrow night will fall into the 40s to near 50.

Along with increased sunshine, a warmup begins Sunday as surface high pressure moves east of the area and a south southeasterly surface wind returns to our area.

Aviation Weather Information for the
Austin Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) Aerodrome and Associated Hubs ….
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will affect the KAUS aerodrome in the period from late afternoon to about 11pm tonight. Rain probabilities peak in the mid evening hours tonight at around 50%. Precipitation will end quickly following the cold front passage which should occur in the 7pm to 11pm time frame. Gusty northerly winds will spread into the area in the wake of the front with low clouds lingering through the overnight hours and into tomorrow.

Likelihood of Commercial Hub Diversions/Reroutes..

DAL/DFW Aerodromes and ZFW Airspace..
Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected in the DFW/DAL area between early/mid afternoon today and early evening tonight.. some stronger thunderstorms are possible with larger hail and damaging thunderstorm wind. Precipitation chances increase from 30% in the afternoon to 60% for the evening hours before decreasing after the cold front passes Friday evening.
Some diversions are likely and flight reroutes in ZFW center air space likely in the late afternoon into evening hours during the time the front is passing.

HOU/IAH Aerodromes and ZHU Airspace..

Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected in the IAH/HOU area between late afternoon today and 5am Saturday morning.. isolated severe thunderstorms are possible with larger hail and damaging thunderstorm wind. Precipitation chances increase from 20% in the afternoon to 60% for the nighttime hours before decreasing after the cold front passes in the predawn hours Saturday morning.
Some diversions are likely and flight reroutes in ZHU center air space likely in the evening into nighttime hours up until the time the front passes.

Current KAUS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) – Issued 061120z ..

FTUS44 KEWX 061120
 TAFAUS
 TAF
 KAUS 061120Z 0612/0718 17010KT P6SM OVC009
      FM061600 19016KT P6SM OVC015
      FM061900 18017KT P6SM BKN035
      FM070000 17009KT P6SM BKN200
      FM070400 16010KT P6SM VCTS BKN050CB
      FM070600 36015G25KT P6SM BKN008==

Current FAA National Airspace Status

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:

I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf
to the National Weather Service, please let me know at tkimmel@troykimmelweather.com

GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:

NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center