Daily Archives
April 3, 2018

by troyk | on Apr 03, 2018 | Comments Off

Troy’s Audio Weather Webcast for Tuesday / 03 April 2018….

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by troyk | on Apr 03, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 03 April 2018

… Rain Showers and Thunderstorms Later Today into Tonight With Cold Front …
… Much Cooler Temperatures to Follow …
… Another Cold Front Due Friday Night and Another Early Next Week …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a developing low pressure area is over western Kansas and eastern Colorado with a trough, or line, of low pressure extending south southwestward into New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly.

On the upper air map… a rather zonal (east-to-west) upper air wind pattern prevails over the USA with an embedded upper air low pressure disturbance extending south southwestward from the Dakotas into he southwestern USA. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are west southwesterly 90 to 100 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Southerly winds have returned and will continue to increase with low level moisture increasing today as the stronger upper air low pressure disturbance to our distant north northwest and an associated cold front sweeps quickly through the area by this evening. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. some thunderstorms may be strong to severe with a larger hail and damaging straight line .. are expected as the front moves through the area.

Much cooler temperatures will overspread the area by 9pm tonight and into tomorrow as skies clear.

Return southerly winds and humidity again by Thursday into Friday with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms again possible by Friday as a cold front approaches and moves through the area Friday night.

Our next cold front will approach the area by next Monday with the possibility of rain showers and thunderstorms.

Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 03 April 2018

TODAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers before 12 noon then scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk in the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may be strong with a small hail and gusty wind threat after 5pm. A 20% chance of rain in the morning increasing to 50% in the afternoon hours; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 82. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more south southwesterly in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 9pm as a cold front passes. A few thunderstorms may be strong with a small hail and gusty wind threat before 8pm. A 60% chance of rain in the evening decreasing quickly after 9pm; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Clearing skies and much cooler temperatures after 9pm. Low 47. Southwesterly wind shifting north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine.. cooler and less humid. High 70. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming northeasterly in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 47. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light easterly after midnight.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine in the morning then becoming partly cloudy and more humid in the afternoon. High 77. Light wind early becoming south southeasterly and increasing to 8 to 15 mph midday and afternoon hours.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy after 11pm. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for the midday and afternoon hours with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch or less. High 81. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes late. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming northwesterly late.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy and not quite as warm with widely scattered rain showers before 10am. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average trace amounts. High 74. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 57. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming easterly late.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 81. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 68. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front moves through the area late in the day. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch or less. High 84. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming northwesterly late in the afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 10 April 2018 through Monday / 16 April 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (03 April)………………………………………. 7:17 am
Sunset this evening (03 April)………………………………………… 7:51 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (04 April)…………………………………………… 7:16 am
Sunset tomorrow (04 April)……………………………………………. 7:52 pm

by troyk | on Apr 03, 2018 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #5
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
850pm CT – Tuesday / 03 April 2018

… Severe Thunderstorm Watch Cancelled for the IH35 Corridor and the Austin Metro Area …
… Cold Front has Moved Southward Through the Area …

At 845pm, the cold front has passed southward through the Austin area and, as predicted, has ended the risk of severe thunderstorms.

Unfortunately, a rain cooled boundary ahead of the front undercut the developing thunderstorms we saw trying to build earlier and that combined with some more stable air aloft to keep most areas dry as the front pushed southeastward over the area. There was no severe weather in the late
afternoon and evening hours with the severe thunderstorm watch being cancelled by the NWS at 802pm.

This is my last statement on this weather event.

tk

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #4
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
555pm CT – Tuesday / 03 April 2018

… Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued for the Austin Metro Area and the IH35 Corridor Until 12 Midnight (Main Risk for Our Area will Exist Only into the 8pm Hour when the Cold Front Moves Through the Area and the Severe Weather Risk Will End) …

… Main Risks: Large Hail.. Damaging Thunderstorm Winds as well as Frequent Dangerous Cloud-to-Ground Lightning …

2018.0403.2250z.SVRTstormWatch 29.DZ5JlNiX4AA7eeW

Continuing to Monitor…

tk

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1045am CT – Tuesday / 03 April 2018

… Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued for Williamson County and Counties Westward Until  600pm …

This issuance is for thunderstorms forming in advance of an upper air low pressure disturbance over southwest Texas. These thunderstorms are moving northeastward.

The cold front is still back over the Texas Panhandle and will not move through our area until sometime this evening with another line or area of thunderstorms moving through out area.

Continuing to monitor…

tk

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
720am CT – Tuesday / 03 April 2018

.. Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Later Today into this Evening with Passing Cold Front ..

Hazards Expected for the Area (and Time Periods) …
.. Larger hail, damaging straight line wind threat and a very slim tornado threat 12 noon today to 8pm tonight ..
.. Due to the progressive (quick moving) nature of the system, rainfall should average 1/4 inch or less with some isolated heavier totals. I do not anticipate any flood problems.. other than some brief urban issues as the thunderstorms move through.. with this system.

Current NWS Watches / Advisories / Warnings ….
There are no current NWS watches, advisories and/or warnings in effect for our IH35 corridor counties..
I think that it is likely that a severe weather watch will be needed at some point later this afternoon or early tonight for our IH35 corridor counties.

Weather Discussion ….
A strong upper level low pressure disturbance and associated surface cold front will move across our area by the dinner hour this evening. The atmosphere, ahead of the upper air disturbance/front, will become unstable and will be sufficiently moist for scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms to develop. The latest high resolution model guidance suggests a few thunderstorms develop in advance of the front in the northern
parts of our area as early as midday into early afternoon today.. these thunderstorms, in advance of the front, could be severe with a large hail and damaging wind threat. More widespread rain showers and thunderstorms.. likely in a line formation ahead of the front.. will develop after 4pm and will sweep east southeastward just in advance of the front by the dinner hour. The cold front will move through the area by 9pm today with the risk of severe
weather hazards ending.

Aviation Weather Information for the
Austin Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) Aerodrome and Associated Hubs ….
Rain showers and thunderstorms will increase by late afternoon into early this evening as a cold front crosses the area. NWS/Austin-San Antonio issued Airport Weather Warnings are likely in the 4pm to 8pm time period with the cold front forecast to cross the Austin Bergstrom International Airport aerodrome by 9pm tonight…

Likelihood of Commercial Hub Diversions/Reroutes..
DAL/DFW Aerodromes and ZFW Airspace.. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms (a 20% chance of rain) are possible today as the cold front moves across the north Texas aerodromes by mid afternoon.
HOU/IAH Aerodromes and ZHU Airspace.. Rain showers and thunderstorms become likely over the area by late afternoon into tonight (a 40% chance of rain later today increasing to 90% by evening/nighttime hours) with severe thunderstorms possible. Some reroutes and diversions are possible especially this evening into the nighttime hours before the cold front completes its
movement through the southeast Texas area by late tonight.

Current KAUS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) – Issued 031140z ..

TAFAUS
 TAF
 KAUS 031140Z 0312/0418 17012KT P6SM SCT015
       TEMPO 0312/0316 BKN015
      FM031800 19012KT P6SM VCTS OVC015CB
      FM032300 01013KT P6SM VCTS OVC030CB
       TEMPO 0400/0403 4SM TSRA
      FM040700 01015G25KT P6SM OVC050=

Current FAA National Airspace Status

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:

I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf to the National Weather Service, please let me know at tkimmel@troykimmelweather.com

GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:

NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center

tk