Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 22 February 2018

… An Overrunning Pattern Continues …
… Unsettled Weather Pattern and Rain Chances Continue …
… Weather Pattern Turns More Stable Late in the Weekend into Next Week …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… the leading edge of surface based shallow arctic cold air mass, marked by a cold front, is along and just offshore of the Texas coast. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are northerly.

On the upper air map… the broad deep trough, or line, of counter clockwise rotating upper air low pressure continues out west and extends southwestward from west of Hudson Bay into the western half of the USA and adjoining areas of northwest Mexico and the Baja Peninsula. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly 80 to 85 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The surface based much colder arctic air has moved as far southeast as the Texas coast and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. The warm and deep moisture flow off the Gulf of Mexico is still there, however; it’s overriding up and over the top of this colder surface based air which only extends up to around 2,500 feet based on the upper air data and data from the National Weather Service Doppler weather radar sites at New Braunfels and Granger.

Rain showers and thunderstorms have become more numerous in the overnight hours. This is occurring as an upper air low pressure disturbance, being ejected by the counter clockwise rotating trough to our distant west, move more overhead and creates atmospheric lift in what is still a warm and moist air mass above the cooler based surface air.

Since the precipitation is not surface based but rooted in the warmer air aloft, I think we will see rainfall amounts overall not as heavy as earlier anticipated. Over the next two to three days rainfall will average around 1 inch with some heavier totals possible.

By late tonight into tomorrow, the cold front, along the coast, will begin to sweep back northwestward as a warm front that will pass back north of the area by tomorrow with much warmer conditions returning. Remember that upper level disturbances will be continuing to move east northeastward overhead with rain and thunderstorm chances continuing as well.

By Saturday, yet another cold front will sweep through the area with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms expected.

Once this front moves through, I expect rain chances to decrease (not to completely disappear) with even some breaks in the clouds Sunday into the earliest part of next week. Temperatures, which will cool a few degrees in the wake of the Saturday cold front, will slowly warm once again by the first part of the new week.

Have a good Thursday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 22 February 2018

TODAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; additional rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 49. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Some patchy fog developing. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 46. Light northerly wind becoming more easterly after midnight.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy and warmer with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 70. Light east southeasterly wind becoming south southeasterly in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the afternoon. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 73. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming west northwesterly by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy and cooler with a few lingering rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. Low 48. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Isolated rain showers early. Partly cloudy. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. High 65. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming easterly in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 46. Light east northeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 70. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more southeasterly by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 50. Light wind.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 70. Light south southeasterly wind.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 56. Light southeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 01 March 2018 through Wednesday / 07 March 2018…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (22 February)………………………………….. 7:04 am
Sunset this evening (22 February)……………………………………. 6:25 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (23 February)………………………………………. 7:03 am
Sunset tomorrow (23 February)……………………………………….. 6:26 pm