Daily Archives
February 20, 2018

by troyk | on Feb 20, 2018 | Comments Off

Troy’s Audio Weather Webcast for Tuesday / 20 February 2018….

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by troyk | on Feb 20, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 20 February 2018

… Dynamic and Changing Weather Pattern …
… Stronger Thunderstorms Possible with Heavier Rains …
… A Cold Front Moves Through Tomorrow …
… Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues Late Week into the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a southward moving cold front is located from northern Missouri into a surface low over northeastern Oklahoma then southwestward into central Oklahoma and the west Texas plains into northeastern New Mexico and northwestward into Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are south southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a deep trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southwestward from west of Hudson Bay into the southwestern USA and the Baja Peninsula. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are south southwesterly 85 to 95 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Our atmosphere continues to turn more moist and unstable. This is happening as the cold front, to our distant north, pushes slowly southward and the dynamic upper level trough, to our distant northwest, pushes slowly eastward. As these features approaches, atmospheric lift will be increasing as well.

As a result, rain showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous today with excessive rainfall expected particularly tonight and into tomorrow as the cold front moves through the area. While severe thunderstorms are not expected, we can’t completely discount the possibility of a couple of stronger thunderstorms. The main effect will be that the rain showers and thunderstorms will be quite efficient rainfall producers given the available atmospheric moisture. In general, most areas will, on average, receive somewhere between 1 and 3 inches of rain over the next few days with isolated higher totals. This will result in some localized flood problems in our area especially tonight into tomorrow.

Even with the passage of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and resultant cooling, we’ll continue rain shower and thunderstorm chances back in cooler air since the upper air low pressure area will remain to the west and will eject upper air disturbances late week through the weekend.

Another cold front will move into the area by Sunday with rain and thunderstorms chances persisting even after this second cold frontal passage.

Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 20 February 2018

TODAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms becoming likely with an associated lightning risk. An 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 73. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. An 90% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. Periods of heavy rain with localized flooding problems. Turning more showery and cooler in the morning as a cold front passes. A 90% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1 to 2 inches. High 63 with temperatures steady falling after the cold frontal passage. Southerly wind early becoming northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 42. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 57. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 53. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy and warmer with scattered rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 72. Light northeasterly wind becoming east southeasterly in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 61. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the afternoon. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming northerly by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy and cooler with a few rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. Low 49. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 65. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 49. Light east northeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 67. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more southeasterly by afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 27 February 2018 through Monday / 05 March 2018…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 February)………………………………….. 7:06 am
Sunset this evening (20 February)……………………………………. 6:23 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (21 February)………………………………………. 7:05 am
Sunset tomorrow (21 February)……………………………………….. 6:24 pm

by troyk | on Feb 20, 2018 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
735am CT – Tuesday / 20 February 2018


.. Dynamic and Changing Weather Pattern to Result in Prolonged Period of Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain/Potential Localized Flooding Problems ..


Hazards Expected and Time Periods (My Confidence) …
…. Frequent Dangerous Cloud-to-Ground Lightning During Periods of Thunderstorms Today Through Tomorrow (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ….
…. Prolonged Periods of Heavy Rain, Especially Overnight Tonight into Tomorrow with Accumulated Rainfall, May Result in Localized Flooding Problems (MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE) ….

Current NWS Watches / Advisories / Warnings ….
There are no current NWS watches, advisories and/or warnings in effect for our IH35 corridor counties..

Weather Discussion ….
A complex weather situation is unfolding over the area. On the surface weather map, a strong surface cold front is moving slowly south southeastward from the southern Texas panhandle into central Oklahoma.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deepening trough, or line, of low pressure extends southwestward from Hudson Bay into the southwestern USA. Abundant low level moisture, with a significant depth and
amount of gulf moisture, has returned northward into the area.

With the approach of the surface cold front and low pressure disturbances breaking loose in the counter clockwise rotating area of upper air low pressure out west, atmospheric lift is increasing in the very moist and increasingly unstable air mass overhead. As a result, rain shower and thunderstorms will be numerous over the area by later today through tonight and tomorrow. Low water crossings will likely see some effects from the
heavy rainfall by tonight into tomorrow with other localized urban problems possible as well. The dry conditions over the past several months should keep this rainfall, for the most part, very beneficial.

The surface cold front will move through our area by afternoon tomorrow and this may reduce the intensity of the rain shower and thunderstorm activity although rain chances will continue with the primary upper level low pressure trough remaining to the west.

According to NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance, severe weather risk with this weather pattern is rather low at this point but we can never rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm or two.

Our greatest threat will be that of heavy rainfall. Current NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain, on average, across our area over the next seven day period. Some isolated greater totals are possible.. especially to the northeast of the IH35 corridor counties.

Aviation Weather Information for the
Austin Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) Aerodrome and Associated Hubs ….
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms affecting the aerodrome. NWS/Austin-San Antonio will be issuing airport weather warnings as a result of the lightning threat.
Note that some small hail could accompany strong thunderstorms.
Heavy rain will likely cause some localized urban flooding problems around the ABIA area /southeastern Austin metro area tonight into tomorrow.

Likelihood of Commercial Hub Diversions/Reroutes..
DAL/DFW Aerodromes and ZFW Center Airspace..
Thunderstorms will be likely today through tomorrow with some diversions possible from
aerodromes and and possible reroutes in ZFW Center airspace.

HOU/IAH Aerodromes and ZHU Center Airspace..
Thunderstorm coverage will be increasing from the west today with thunderstorms likely tonight through tomorrow with some diversions possible from aerodromes and possible reroutes in ZHU Center airspace.

Current KAUS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) – Issued 1132z Today ..

FTUS44 KEWX 201132
 TAFAUS
 TAF
 KAUS 201132Z 2012/2118 17015KT P6SM -RA OVC022
       TEMPO 2014/2018 5SM -TSRA OVC014CB
      FM201800 17016KT 5SM -SHRA OVC012
      FM202300 18013KT P6SM OVC035
      FM210800 16005KT 4SM -TSRA BKN025CB
      FM211000 01010G20KT 5SM SHRA BR OVC015=

Current FAA National Airspace Status

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:

I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf
to the National Weather Service, please let me know at tkimmel@troykimmelweather.com

GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:

NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center

tk