Updated 915am CT – Monday / 19 February 2018

… Dynamic and Changing Weather Pattern Through This Week …
… A Cold Front Moves Through Wednesday Afternoon …
… Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues Late Week into the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a southward moving cold front is located from northwestern Missouri into a surface low over northeastern Kansas then southwestward into northern Oklahoma and the central Texas panhandle into northeastern New Mexico and northwestward into Colorado and into another developing low pressure storm system in eastern Utah. A cold front extends from the low into southwestern Utah and then into western Arizona and the northwestern Baja Peninsula. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are south southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a deepening trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southwestward from west of Hudson Bay into California, Arizona and the Baja Peninsula. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly 60 to 70 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

As we start the new week, our atmosphere is turning much more moist and more unstable. This is happening as the cold front, to our distant north, pushes slowly southward and the dynamic upper level trough, to our distant northwest, pushes slowly eastward. As these features approaches, atmospheric lift will be increasing as well.

As a result, rain showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous over the next 24 hours with excessive rainfall expected particularly as the initial cold front passes Wednesday afternoon. While severe thunderstorms are not expected, the rain showers and thunderstorms will be quite efficient rainfall producers given the available atmospheric moisture. In general, most areas will, on average, received somewhere between 1 and 3 inches of rain over the next seven days with isolated higher totals. This will result in some localized flood problems in our area especially Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Even with the passage of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and resultant cooling, we’ll continue rain shower and thunderstorm chances back in cooler air since the upper air low pressure area will remain to the west and will eject upper air disturbances late week through the weekend.

Another cold front will move into the area by Sunday with rain and thunderstorms chances persisting even after this second cold frontal passage.

Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT… Monday / 19 February 2018

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk by late afternoon. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 76. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. An 80% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 73. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. An 80% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. Periods of heavy rain with localized flooding problems. Turning cooler by mid to late afternoon as a cold front passes. A 90% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1 to 2 inches. High 68. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming northerly wind 8 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 42. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 55. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 50. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy and warmer with scattered rain showers. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 67. Light northeasterly wind becoming east southeasterly in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 58. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the morning with an associated lightning risk as a cold front moves through the area. A 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Becoming partly cloudy and less humid in the afternoon. High 67. Southerly winds shifting north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 26 February 2018 through Sunday / 04 March 2018…
Temperature… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 February)………………………………….. 7:07 am
Sunset this evening (19 February)……………………………………. 6:23 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 February)………………………………………. 7:06 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 February)……………………………………….. 6:23 pm