Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Troy’s Audio Weather Webcast for Thursday / 15 February 2018….

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Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 15 February 2018

… Clouds and Rain Chances Persist …
… Cold Front Tomorrow with Clouds and Rain Chances Through the Weekend …
… Clouds and Better Thunderstorm Chances for Early/Mid Parts of Next Week …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is over the southeastern USA and Florida with a low pressure area over northern Kansas. From the low, a cold front extends south southwestward into western Oklahoma and west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly.

On the upper air map… a deepening trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southwestward from Hudson Bay into the California and the southwestern USA. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly 45 to 55 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

As the deepening upper air low pressure trough to our west moves slowly east southeastward, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to move northward with clouds and rain chances continue across the area. Temperatures will be warmer than seasonal averages today. The latest NWS Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests 1/10th inch or rain or less for our local area through tonight.

The area of upper air low pressure out west and an associated surface cold front will move across Texas by tomorrow afternoon. Clouds and rain chances will persist as the system passes tomorrow into tomorrow night. The clouds and rain chances will persist in the post frontal environment Saturday through Sunday and into the new week with temperatures slowly warming by Sunday into early next week. As temperatures warm, we’ll see a more unstable environment develop with more rain showers and thunderstorms for Monday into Tuesday.

Precipitation will peak as another upper level low pressure disturbance and cold front moves into the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with clouds and precipitation continuing in an “overrunning” pattern after the cold front passes.

NWS Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall, during the Monday through Wednesday time period, will average between 1/2 and 1 1/2 inch.

Have a good Thursday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 15 February 2018

TODAY…. Light drizzle and patchy fog in the morning. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy and much warmer. High 78. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog developing late. Low 59. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 69. Southwesterly wind becoming westerly in the morning then north northeasterly 8 to 18 mph by afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered patches of rain. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 46. North northeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph.

SATURDAY…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered patches of rain. A 50% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 55. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered patches of rain. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average a few hundredths of an inch. Low 50. East northeasterly wind becoming light after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Cloudy and a little warmer with a few patches of rain. A 20% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average trace amounts. High 67. Light wind becoming southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few patches of rain. Light drizzle and patchy fog developing late. A 20% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average trace amounts. Low 58. Light south southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Cloudy and a little warmer with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 58. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and turning a little cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 50. Southerly wind becoming northerly 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and a little cooler with scattered rain showers. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch. High 60. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 22 February 2018 through Wednesday / 28 February 2018…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (15 February)………………………………….. 7:11 am
Sunset this evening (15 February)……………………………………. 6:20 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (16 February)………………………………………. 7:10 am
Sunset tomorrow (16 February)……………………………………….. 6:21 pm