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January 12, 2018

by troyk | on Jan 12, 2018 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
540pm CT – Friday / 12 January 2018

.. Potential Winter Weather Event Monday Night into Tuesday ..
.. Accumulations Possible in Some Areas ..

On this Friday evening, we are watching an arctic air mass that is forecast to move
southward into our area by Monday evening into Monday night. After a brief warm
up on Monday (highs around 60), we’ll see northerly winds increase and temperatures
fall rapidly following the surface cold frontal passage. In the hours around the forecast
time of the surface cold frontal passage, an upper air low pressure disturbance is forecast,
as well, to track eastward over our area with clouds picking up late in the afternoon Monday
with light rain and drizzle starting sometime around the dinner hour with the precipitation
persisting as the front passes and continuing as much as 12 hours after the frontal passage.

As temperatures fall, any precipitation that is occurring locally would transition over to freezing
rain, freezing drizzle and sleet (ice pellets) as we make our way into late nighttime hours. As the
atmosphere aloft continues to cool, it appears that the precipitation would transition over to more
sleet (ice pellets) and light snow after midnight Monday night into the first half of the day on
Tuesday. Temperature lows Monday night will fall into the upper 20s to near 30.. with highs on
Tuesday (with clouds and precipitation persisting into the day) doing good to rise to the lower
and middle 30s for highs. Given this temperature forecast, I think it is possible that some areas
of south central Texas could see at least some ice/sleet/snow accumulations with this event.

As it appears now, any precipitation associated with the passing disturbance will end by
midday Tuesday with clouds decreasing by Tuesday night into Wednesday. If skies do clear
or partially clear Tuesday night, we could see some temperatures in the teens in outlying areas
to near 20 in the urban areas of the IH35 corridor. Highs in Wednesday will be, with the return
of some sunshine, in the upper 30s to near 40.

I will tell you that I am concerned that the models are a little too warm with this air mass (something we
tend to see when you get this type of air mass this far south) and it is possible that we will see temperatures
trend colder with time. Right now my confidence in the much colder air is quite high locally with medium
to high confidence that precipitation will occur. Please understand that timing of the individual ingredients
is indeed everything with this potential winter weather event for south central Texas.

We’re still a few days out with this event and we will get a better idea of the system as we go through
the weekend. I’ll continue to keep you advised on this potential winter weather event through the weekend.



Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.


I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf
to the National Weather Service, please let me know at tkimmel@troykimmelweather.com


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