Monthly Archives
December 2017

by troyk | on Dec 21, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 21 December 2017

… Sunshine Today …
… Cold Front with Rain Chances Tomorrow into Tomorrow Night …
… Partly Cloudy and Cooler Temperatures over the Weekend into Next Week …

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a developing and strengthening surface low pressure is located to our distant northwest over the four corners region eastward into southern Colorado and western Kansas. A warm front extends eastward from the surface low over Kansas into eastern Kansas and southern Missouri. A cold front links the surface lows and extends westward through western Kansas through Colorado then into extreme southeastern Utah and through Arizona into northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja Peninsula. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

On the upper air map… a strong dynamic upper level low is over southern Utah with the general trough, or line, of upper air low pressure that it is part of, extends southwestward from eastern Montana and the Dakotas into the southwest USA and northwestern Mexico. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are southwesterly at 60 to 70 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The strong upper air low pressure disturbance, to our distant northwest, is moving eastward, By tonight into tomorrow, as it moves across Texas, another round of rain showers and thunderstorms expected across our area. Current NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecasts suggest another 1/4 to 3/4 inch of rainfall with the system. In the wake of the front and as the upper air low pressure disturbance moves east of the area, rain chances will decrease by late Friday night.

Another secondary cold front will arrive Saturday night with additional cooling of temperatures Sunday into Monday (Christmas Day). No precipitation is anticipated at this time.

Overall, I expect the skies to become partly cloudy with temperatures turning progressively cooler tomorrow through Saturday continuing through the early and middle part of next week including the Christmas Day period.

Given the fact that many people will be traveling during this upcoming holiday period, you can be assured that I will be watching the forecast pattern closely for you.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 21 December 2017

TODAY…. Patchy morning fog otherwise mostly sunny. High 75. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Increasing clouds early becoming mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing after midnight. A 40% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 59. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy and turning cooler in the wake of a morning/midday cold front. Occasional rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/4 to 3/4 inch. High 63 in the morning with temperatures falling into the 50s by afternoon. Southwesterly wind early becoming north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph as the cold front passes.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Scattered rain showers early. A 40% chance of rain; additional rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Mostly cloudy. Low 41. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 56. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 39. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/…. Partly cloudy with a cold front passing in the morning hours. High 52. Winds becoming north northwesterly and increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 30. Winds diminishing to become light northeasterly wind.

MONDAY /CHRISTMAS DAY/…. Mostly sunny. High 54. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 32. Light northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 58. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeasterly in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 38. Light southeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 60. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 27 December 2017 through Tuesday / 02 January 2018…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (21 December)………………………………. 7:23 am
Sunset this evening (21 December)………………………………… 5:35 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (22 December)…………………………………… 7:24 am
Sunset tomorrow (22 December)……………………………………. 5:36 pm

by troyk | on Dec 20, 2017 | Comments Off

Troy’s Audio Weather Webcast for Wednesday / 20 December 2017….

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https://weather.utexas.edu/ )

by troyk | on Dec 20, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 20 December 2017

… Return to Sunshine Through Tomorrow …
… Cold Front with Rain Chances Friday into Friday Night …
… Partly Cloudy and Progressively Colder Temperatures over the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a surface low pressure is located over Louisiana/Arkansas border north of Monroe, La. A cold front extends from the low into southwestern Louisiana and into the extreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico just off the Texas coast. Eastward from the low pressure area, a stationary front extends through central Mississippi and northern Alabama into northern Georgia. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are light westerly.

On the upper air map… a weakening eastward moving upper level low is over northeastern Arkansas while a stronger upper level low is over eastern Washington with a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extending southwestward to off the central and northern California coast. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are southwesterly at 90 to 100 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

I expect more sunshine and warmer temperatures today into tomorrow as the atmosphere stabilizes a bit in the wake of yesterday’s upper air low pressure disturbance.

Guidance is in agreement now that the strong upper air low pressure disturbance now over the Pacific Northwest will move eastward through the central plains by Friday into Friday night with another round of rain showers and thunderstorms expected. Current NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecasts suggest another 1/4 to 3/4 inch of rainfall with the system. In the wake of the front and as the upper air low pressure disturbance moves east of the area, rain chances will decrease by Friday night.

A secondary cold front will arrive Saturday night with additional cooling of temperatures Sunday into Monday (Christmas Day). No precipitation is anticipated at this time.

Overall, I expect the skies to become partly cloudy with temperatures turning progressively cooler Friday through Saturday continuing through early next week including the Christmas Day period.

Given the fact that many people will be traveling during this upcoming holiday period, you can be assured that I will be watching the forecast pattern closely for you.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 20 December 2017

TODAY…. Patchy morning fog otherwise mostly sunny and a little bit warmer. High 73. Light west northwesterly wind becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 50. South southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Patchy morning fog otherwise mostly sunny. High 75. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds early becoming mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing after midnight. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 57. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy and turning a bit cooler in the wake of a morning/midday cold front. Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 60. Southwesterly wind early becoming north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph as the cold front passes.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles early with only trace amounts expected. Low 40. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 54. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 38. Northeasterly wind becoming more north northwesterly and increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/…. Partly cloudy. High 48. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 29. Winds diminishing to become light northeasterly wind.

MONDAY /CHRISTMAS DAY/…. Mostly sunny. High 46. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 29. Light northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 50. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 27 December 2017 through Tuesday / 02 January 2018…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 December)………………………………. 7:23 am
Sunset this evening (20 December)………………………………… 5:35 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (21 December)…………………………………… 7:23 am
Sunset tomorrow (21 December)……………………………………. 5:35 pm

by troyk | on Dec 19, 2017 | Comments Off

Troy’s Audio Weather Webcast for Tuesday / 19 December 2017….

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.


(Note: If my Audio Weather Webcast is not properly linked
here (usually because of Go Daddy hosting problems), please
check out my UT weather website…
https://weather.utexas.edu/ )

by troyk | on Dec 19, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 19 December 2017

… Clouds and Rain Continues Today …
… Back to Sunshine by Tomorrow and Thursday …
… Cold Front Friday Morning Ushers in Cooler Air …

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure is located over the southeastern USA with a weakening stationary front extending eastward from southeast Texas. A weak area of surface low pressure is over southeastern Colorado with a trough, or line, of low pressure extending south southwestward into eastern New Mexico and far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a dynamic eastward moving upper level low is over eastern New Mexico southward into northern Mexico south southwest of El Paso. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are southwesterly at 75 to 85 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Rain showers and even a few thunderstorms (with an associated lightning risk) will continue across our area as the upper level low pressure storm system to our west moves eastward creating abundant and dynamic atmospheric lift. Precipitation will taper off in the wake of the system tonight with clouds decreasing before daybreak tomorrow. Current NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance is suggesting another 1/2 to 1 inch of rain on average before the system departs to the northeast by late tonight into the predawn hours tomorrow.

Once we get into the day tomorrow as well as on Thursday, I expect more sunshine and warmer temperatures.

The manual guidance as well as the numerical forecast guidance as it continues to suggest a trend toward cooler weather and another round of rain showers on Friday as another cold front moves southeastward across the area. Temperatures will turn cooler than average Friday through Saturday with the chance of rain tapering off by late Friday.

A secondary cold front will arrive Saturday night with additional cooling of temperatures Sunday into Monday (Christmas Day). No precipitation is anticipated at this time.

Given the fact that many people will be traveling during this upcoming holiday period, you can be assured that I will be watching the forecast pattern closely for you.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 19 December 2017

TODAY…. Cloudy with occasional rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 90% chance of rain; additional rainfall will average 1/2 to 1 inch with some isolated heavier totals to 2 inches. Rain chances will diminish after 4pm. High 69. Light southeasterly wind becoming more southwesterly in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. A few evening rain showers otherwise decreasing clouds late with partly cloudy skies after midnight. Some patchy fog developing. Low 51. Westerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Patchy morning fog otherwise mostly sunny and a little bit warmer. High 73. Light west northwesterly wind becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 50. South southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Patchy morning fog otherwise mostly sunny. High 75. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds early becoming mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing after midnight. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 57. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy and turning a bit cooler in the wake of a morning/midday cold front. Scattered rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 60. Southwesterly wind early becoming north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph as the cold front passes.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles early with only trace amounts expected. Low 40. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 53. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 38. Northeasterly wind becoming more north northwesterly and increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/…. Partly cloudy. High 46. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 29. Winds diminishing to become light northeasterly wind.

MONDAY /CHRISTMAS DAY/…. Mostly sunny. High 46. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 26 December 2017 through Monday / 01 January 2018…
Temperature… Well Below Average
Precipitation… Well Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 December)………………………………. 7:22 am
Sunset this evening (19 December)………………………………… 5:34 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 December)…………………………………… 7:23 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 December)……………………………………. 5:35 pm