Monthly Archives
December 2017

by troyk | on Dec 31, 2017 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1011am CT – Sunday 31 December 2017

No major changes in my forecast thought for Austin and IH35 corridor area…

.. Arctic Outbreak to Ring in the New Year ..
.. Some Very Light Freezing Drizzle Possible Sunday Evening in Some Areas to Our West ..
.. A Prolonged Period of Near Freezing or Below Temperatures Sunday Night into Wednesday
with Hard Freezes Overnight Hours Monday Night and Tuesday Night ..

As this much colder air arrives, remember people, pets, pipes and plants…

On this New Years’ Eve morning.. as advertised.. much colder arctic air has settled southward deeper into
Texas. Temperatures across the IH35 corridor range from the mid 30s in Williamson County and northwestern
parts of Travis County to near 40 over the southern parts of the area. Some patchy light drizzle and light rain
has developed across the area.

Temperatures will settle to freezing or below by late afternoon into the evening.. but most the precipitation
should have ended over the IH35 corridor. I think that surfaces that are wet from the rain and drizzle will have
mostly had the chance to dry by the time the freezing temperatures arrive. In some isolated cases.. some
ice could develop on exposed bridges and overpasses mainly in areas to the west and southwest of our area
over the hill  country.

As clouds break late tonight into New Years Day, this incoming air mass will produce a prolonged period of
near to well below freezing temperatures for the first few days of the new year with highs only in the
30s and lows in the upper teens and 20s over central and south central Texas as clouds break. As a
result, I’ll remind you again to remember “people, pets, pipes and plants.”

Happy New Years, all…. tk

by troyk | on Dec 30, 2017 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
950am CT – Saturday / 30 December 2017

.. Arctic Outbreak to Ring in the New Year ..
.. Some Very Light Freezing Drizzle Possible Sunday Evening in Some Areas to Our West ..
.. A Prolonged Period of Near Freezing or Below Temperatures Sunday Night into Wednesday
with Hard Freezes Overnight Hours Monday Night and Tuesday Night ..

As this much colder air arrives, remember people, pets, pipes and plants…

Early on this Saturday, a southward moving surface arctic cold front extends from southeast
Oklahoma to just northwest of the DFW Metroplex then southwestward to Midland then north
northwestward into eastern New Mexico. While temperatures ahead of the front locally have risen
into the 50s in our area this morning and are expected near 60by this afternoon, temperatures
behind the front are falling below freezing from southeastern Oklahoma southwestward to south of
Wichita Falls to between Midland and Lubbock. To the north of this.. temperatures have fallen into
the teens from the Texas panhandle northeastward through western and northern Oklahoma. Single
digit temperatures currently cover most of Kansas with temperatures near 0 degrees over northwest
Kansas.

As the colder air filters southward tonight into Sunday, some light drizzle will develop back in the
southward moving colder air. The question remains whether or not the drizzle will hang around long
enough for the temperatures to fall below freezing and the answer is maybe but mostly in areas over the Texas
Hill Country to our west and not so much for the IH35 corridor counties and eastward. Is this a
guarantee? Heck, no, it’s not (besides the fact that I’ve ve never offered a guarantee in a forecast in my life!!),
but that is as much as we can tell you at this point. Let me make it clear that the probability of precipitation at
any given location around the area is about 20% so the best way to describe this event is as a “very low
probability event with high potential impacts” in the areas where it develops – which won’t be many with the
overall 20% chance of precipitation.  As  I see it now, some slick spots could develop on bridges and overpasses
Sunday evening  in areas to our immediate west and northwest
but, as precipitation tapers off by mid evening Sunday,
even these will go away quickly as additional colder and much drier air arrives late Sunday night into Monday morning.
As we all are, our colleagues at the NWS Austin-San Antonio are also monitoring this forecast continuously and all of us
will do our best to keep you advised of any changes in the forecast.

Even if no freezing precipitation occurs, this incoming air mass will produce a prolonged period of
near to well below freezing temperatures for the first few days of the new year with highs only in the
30s and lows in the upper teens and 20s over central and south central Texas as clouds break. As a
result, I’ll remind you again to remember “people, pets, pipes and plants.”

I’ll continue to keep you updated.. tk

by troyk | on Dec 22, 2017 | Comments Off

I’ll be taking off Saturday/23 December 2017 through Tuesday/03 January 2018 and will not be providing updates here. In my absence, please link to the latest NWS forecast provided by the NWS/Austin-San Antonio office.

Happy holidays everyone!!

Troy

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 22 December 2017

… Cold Front with Rain Chances Through Tonight …
… Partly Cloudy and Cooler Temperatures over the Weekend into Next Week …

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a cold front, oriented northeast to southwest, is sweeping southeastward across Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southwesterly shifting northerly in the wake of the front.

On the upper air map… a strong dynamic upper level low extends south southwestward over the plains states into northern Mexico. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are strong southwesterly.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The strong upper air low pressure disturbance, to our immediate west, is moving eastward. As it moves across Texas, abundant atmospheric lift and instability is resulting in rain showers and thunderstorms. Current NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecasts suggests 1/4 to 3/4 inch of rainfall with the passage of this system. In the wake of the front and as the upper air low pressure disturbance moves east of the area, rain chances will decrease following by decreasing clouds by tonight into the predawn hours Saturday.

I expect partly cloudy skies with cooler temperatures through Saturday and Saturday night.

Another secondary cold front will arrive Saturday night with additional cooling of temperatures Sunday into Monday (Christmas Day) with plenty of sunshine. No precipitation is anticipated at this time.

As another low pressure area develops to our west, a more unsettled pattern will once again develop for the middle and latter part of next week with increased clouds and minimal rain chances.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 22 December 2017

TODAY…. Cloudy and turning cooler in the wake of a morning cold front. Occasional rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/4 to 3/4 inch. High 63 in the morning with temperatures falling through the 50s by afternoon. Southwesterly wind early becoming north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph as the cold front passes.

TONIGHT…. Scattered rain showers early. A 40% chance of rain; additional rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Mostly cloudy. Low 41. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 58. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 39. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/…. Partly cloudy with a cold front passing in the morning hours. High 54. Winds becoming north northwesterly and increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 31. Winds diminishing to become light northeasterly wind.

MONDAY /CHRISTMAS DAY/…. Mostly sunny. High 56. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 32. Light northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 59. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeasterly in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 39. Light southeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 62. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 48. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 66. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 29 December 2017 through Thursday / 04 January 2018…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (22 December)………………………………. 7:24 am
Sunset this evening (22 December)………………………………… 5:36 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (23 December)…………………………………… 7:24 am
Sunset tomorrow (23 December)……………………………………. 5:36 pm

by troyk | on Dec 22, 2017 | Comments Off

I’ll be taking off Saturday/23 December 2017 through Tuesday/03 January 2018 and will not be providing updates here. In my absence, please link to the latest NWS forecast provided by the NWS/Austin-San Antonio office.

Happy holidays everyone!!

Troy

Troy’s Audio Weather Webcast for Friday / 22 December 2017….

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

 
(Note: If my Audio Weather Webcast is not properly linked
here (usually because of Go Daddy hosting problems), please
check out my UT weather website…
https://weather.utexas.edu/ )

 

by troyk | on Dec 21, 2017 | Comments Off

Troy’s Audio Weather Webcast for Thursday / 21 December 2017….

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

 
(Note: If my Audio Weather Webcast is not properly linked
here (usually because of Go Daddy hosting problems), please
check out my UT weather website…
https://weather.utexas.edu/ )