Updated 915am CT – Friday / 20 October 2017

.. Southerly Winds and Warmer Temperatures into the Weekend ..
.. Another Cold Front and Higher Rain Chances on Sunday ..
.. A Reinforcing Cold Front Due Next Tuesday ..

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a surface high pressure area is located over eastern Kentucky and Tennessee. A trough, or line, of surface low pressure is deepening from eastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado into far west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a deepening trough, or line, of upper air low pressure stretches southward from the western part of Canada through the western half of the USA. A line of upper level high pressure, or a ridge, extends northward from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the eastern half of the USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are west southwesterly 35 to 45 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The surface high pressure is now well east of Texas; as a result, we’re back to a south southeasterly surface wind. As a result, we’ll see increasing low level moisture and a little more instability through the balance of the week and into the weekend.

I’ll continue a slim chance of rain, rain shower and thunderstorm activity beginning today through Friday and Saturday as weak upper air disturbances move overhead west-to-east.

Our next strong cold front will move swiftly through Texas by late tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. Rain shower and thunderstorm chances will greatly increase as the front moves through the area with storm total rainfall of upwards of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain between now and Sunday afternoon.

In the wake of the front, skies will clear with breezy and cooler conditions to once again overspread the area for late Sunday into Monday.

A secondary reinforcing cold front will move through the area early Tuesday ushering in additional cooling and dry air. Since the air mass ahead of the front will be dry and stable, I expect little in the way of sensible weather, other than a wind shift, with the frontal passage.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 20 October 2017

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. A few sprinkles. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 83. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Variable clouds early.. a low overcast late. A few sprinkles. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms early increasing in coverage after midnight.. with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain early increasing to 60% after midnight; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight before shifting north northwesterly with cold frontal passage before daybreak.

SUNDAY…. Variable clouds early.. breezy and cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 9am. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon with rain chances quickly diminishing. High around 79. North northwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Becoming clear. Cooler. Low 53 to 56. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 79. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming 5 to 12 by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 55. Light north northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 76. Light wind shifting northerly 10 to 20 mph and gusty as a cold front moves through the area.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Clear and cooler. Low 49. North northeasterly wind slowly diminishing to 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine. High 78. Northeasterly wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 52. Light easterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 27 October 2017 through Thursday / 02 November 2017…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 October)………………………………….. 7:37 am
Sunset this evening (20 October)……………………………………. 6:54 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (21 October)………………………………………. 7:37 am
Sunset tomorrow (21 October)……………………………………….. 6:53 pm