Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast for Friday / 28 July 2017 ….

Troy’s Audio Weather Webcast for Friday / 28 July 2017….

 

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TK’s Weather Update for Friday / 28 July 2017 ….

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 28 July 2017

.. A Typical Dry Summer Weather Pattern Continues Today ..
.. Rain Chances Increase Over the Weekend into Next Week ..

On the Weather Map…
Surface map… a cold front extends southwestward from the Ohio River valley into a surface low pressure area over the Missouri Bootheel then to another surface low around Fort Smith, AR then southwestward to near Wichita Falls and Lubbock and into east central New Mexico. Weak high pressure is centered to our distant northwest over the four corners region and Colorado and well as over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

Upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure through (line of low pressure) is deepening over the eastern third of the country while another upper air low pressure trough is located over the Pacific Northwest. An upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, covers the south central USA over Oklahoma and north and west Texas. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are southeasterly less than 10 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Other than a few towering clouds with the afternoon heat, I see a typically dry summer weather pattern continuing today as the upper level “lid” continues overhead and to the north and west of the area persists. Temperatures today into tomorrow will continue to be above to well above seasonal averages.

Over the next few days, the upper level low pressure trough over the eastern USA will continue, as predicted, to deepen a bit with another upper air disturbance diving southeastward through the Mississippi Valley with the cold front to our north moving southeastward deeper into Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. At the same time, the upper level high to our north and west settles more northwestward and there will be less of a “lid” on the atmosphere overhead. As a result of atmospheric lift from the front settling southwestward into Texas and the air mass becoming more unstable along with better moisture moving into the area, I will mention increased rain showers and thunderstorm chances beginning late tomorrow and continuing into much of next week with temperatures coming down a few degrees due to the increased cloud cover and overall more unstable air mass. Current NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests that parts of our south central Texas could receive upwards of 1/2 to 1 inch of rainfall during the next seven day period. The cold front will probably move into the local area by tomorrow night into Sunday but will weaken quickly and will have little effect locally other than the added atmospheric lift and some variability of the surface winds over the weekend.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 28 July 2017

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 104. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear with lower clouds late. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy and not as hot with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk after 3pm. A 10% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 101. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with lower clouds late with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light late.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 97. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with lower clouds late with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 76. Light northeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 96. Light easterly wind except strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with lower clouds late with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 76. East southeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 96. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with lower clouds late with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 95. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with lower clouds late with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 95. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 04 August 2017 through Thursday / 10 August 2017…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (28 July)…………………………………………….. 6:47 am
Sunset this evening (28 July)……………………………………………… 8:27 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (29 July)………………………………………………… 6:48 am
Sunset tomorrow (29 July)…………………………………………………. 8:27 pm