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July 14, 2017

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast for Friday / 14 July 2017….

by troyk | on Jul 14, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated Shortly

TK’s Weather Update for Friday / 14 July 2017….

by troyk | on Jul 14, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 14 July 2017

.. A Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continuing ..
.. Rain Chances Headed Up Over the Weekend Into Early Next Week ..

On the Weather Map…
Surface map… surface high pressure is to the east of the area over the southeastern USA and the northern Gulf of Mexico with a stationary front moving southwestward from central Missouri and into a surface low over the western Oklahoma. A weakening cold front extends from the low into the northern Texas south plains and into central New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

Upper air map… upper level high pressure covers the southwestern USA with weak upper level winds over the southern USA. Passing upper level low pressure disturbances, one over the Great Lakes and another offshore of British Columbia, are moving eastward and generally remaining along and north of the USA/Canada border. There is an upper level low pressure area over the Rio Grande River southeast of El Paso with several other upper air disturbances over the lower Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are light and variable less than 15 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
For one more day.. today.. there will continue to be little change in the overall stable weather pattern for south central Texas and the Austin metro area with afternoon highs continuing above average. While a few towering clouds are possible primarily in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor and along and south of the IH10 corridor today into this evening, rain chances today at any given location is 10% or less.

By tomorrow into next week, computer model and manual forecast guidance continues to suggest that the upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, will weaken a bit and settle back north northwestward into the northern Rockies and plains states. This will allow for better moisture flow off of the Gulf of Mexico as a weakening cold front settles southward into Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. As a result, I think we’ll see more cloud cover and a little better rain chances beginning tomorrow and continuing Sunday and into the new week. The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall amounts, on average, of 1/2 inch locally for the time period tomorrow into the middle part of next week.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 14 July 2017

TODAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 100. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning hazard. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 98. Light winds becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk.. mainly before 9pm. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 76. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Light wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light late.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk.. mainly before 9pm. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 96. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk.. mainly before 9pm. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 97. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 21 July 2017 through Thursday / 27 July 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (14 July)…………………………………………….. 6:39 am
Sunset this evening (14 July)……………………………………………… 8:34 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (15 July)………………………………………………… 6:40 am
Sunset tomorrow (15 July)…………………………………………………. 8:34 pm