Daily Archives
May 17, 2017

by troyk | on May 17, 2017 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 17 May 2017

.. An Unsettled Weather Pattern Through the Weekend ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Come and Go ..

On this Wednesday… a surface low pressure area is over southwestern Kansas with a cold front extending southward through western Oklahoma into northwest Texas then southwestward into northern Mexico southeast of the Texas Big Bend. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are variable mainly due to our morning rain shower activity ahead of the advancing cold front.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep upper air low pressure trough, or north to south line of low pressure, covers the western 2/3rds of the USA with disturbances embedded within the trough over southwestern Kansas and another disturbance over the southern part of Idaho. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are southwesterly 85 to 95 mph.

The approaching upper air low pressure trough, currently located over the western 2/3rds of the USA, has caused our atmosphere to become more unstable. As predicted, the first in a series of upper level low pressure disturbances moved across the area earlier this morning with scattered rain showers over our area.

In the wake of the initial disturbance, we’ll continue to see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms today through Thursday, Friday and Friday night under a partly to mostly cloudy sky even though it is difficult to find an exact triggering mechanism other than daytime heating.

By Saturday into Saturday night and into early Sunday, another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will pass southwest to northeast over our area and will allow a surface cold front to move southeastward across the IH35 corridor by sunrise Sunday morning. Scattered to locally numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will be present over the area particularly after mid afternoon Saturday through midday Sunday. Periods of heavier rain are possible over the area.

The cold front will weaken Sunday midday through Monday along and offshore of the Texas coast with rain chances dropping from the forecast late Sunday into Sunday night and Monday.

By late Monday into Tuesday, another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will approach the area rom the west with the front off the Texas coast returning northwestward as a warm front into our area. As the warm, moist and more unstable air mass returns and the low pressure area approaches from the west, I will reintroduce rain shower and thunderstorm chances by Monday night and Tuesday.

As always, a reminder that lightning, associated with any thunderstorms that develop or move into the area, will pose a danger. Updated guidance continues to suggests upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rain locally with isolated heavier amounts over the next seven days.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 17 May 2017

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average trace amounts. High 88. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly after 2pm with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a weak cold front moves southeastward through the area before 9am. A 40% chance of rain before 9am; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 83. Winds becoming light east northeasterly around daybreak.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and a little cooler. Low 63. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 85. Light wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain before 9am; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 66. Wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 87. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 24 May 2017 through Tuesday / 30 May 2017…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 May)……………………………………………. 6:36 am
Sunset this evening (17 May)……………………………………………… 8:19 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 May)………………………………………………… 6:35 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 May)…………………………………………………. 8:20 pm