Updated 915am CT – Monday / 01 May 2017

.. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern to Start the Week ..
.. Another Cold Front with Stronger Thunderstorms Possible Midweek ..
.. Clearing and a Bit Cooler Again Late Week ..

On this Monday… a strong surface low pressure area is over the Great Lakes states with a cold front extending southward into the southeastern USA and the Gulf of Mexico. Weak surface high pressure is over east Texas as pressures lower once again over west Texas and New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are south southwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep trough.. or line of upper level low pressure.. extends southward from the Great Lakes southward through the eastern 2/3rds of the country. Another upper level low pressure disturbance is over the Baja Peninsula. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are westerly 55 to 60 mph.

A drier and more stable air mass has moved into Texas in the wake of the Saturday evening cold front and round of rain showers and thunderstorms that affected the central and eastern parts of the area.

The upper air low pressure disturbance will deepen and move slowly east northeastward toward Texas over the next day or so. As it does, abundant low level moisture will increase over the area as the air mass grows more unstable.

By late tomorrow night into Wednesday and Wednesday night, a surface cold front, associated with the approaching/passing upper level low, will increase the lift in the atmosphere as it become increasing moist and unstable. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will occur over the area with the possibility of severe thunderstorms.. including the risk of larger hail, damaging thunderstorm winds and even a few tornadoes over our area. At the current time, the NWS/Storm Prediction Center has our area in a “marginal” severe thunderstorm risk but hey do indicate this risk could be increased by the time the severe weather outlooks are updated again tomorrow morning. Given the progressive nature of the system, rainfall for this event will stay below one inch.

Once this system passes by Wednesday evening, we’ll see clouds break with sunshine returning along with a little cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

It looks like a sunny weekend coming up with a slow warming trend.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 01 May 2017

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 86. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 60. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High 91. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes by the evening rush hour. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming southwesterly in the afternoon before shifting northwesterly by the evening rush hour.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 10pm. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Decreasing clouds and cooler by midnight. Low 57. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 78. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 53. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light after midnight.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 81. Light northerly wind becoming more northeasterly by afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 56. Light easterly wind becoming more southeasterly after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 84. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 59. Light southerly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 08 May 2017 through Sunday / 14 May 2017…
Temperature… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (01 May)……………………………………………. 6:50 am
Sunset this evening (01 May)……………………………………………… 8:07 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (02 May)………………………………………………… 6:49 am
Sunset tomorrow (02 May)…………………………………………………. 8:08 pm