Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 24 April 2017

.. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern to Start the Week ..
.. A Weak Cold Front Mid Week ..
.. A Stronger Cold Front with a Chance of Thunderstorms by Next Weekend ..

On this Monday… eastward moving surface high pressure is located over western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. Surface low pressure area is developing from southern South Dakota southwestward into eastern Colorado with a trough, or line, of low pressure down into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are light and variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough.. or line of upper level low pressure.. is moving eastward over the northwestern USA with another center of upper level low pressure over the southeastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are westerly at 30 to 40 mph.

With the surface high pressure overhead on this Monday, we’ve got a dry and stable weather pattern in place across south central Texas.

Southerly surface winds will return by later today as the surface high pressure moves eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Low level moisture will slowly return over the next few days.

A cold front will advance eastward into Texas by Wednesday with a dry frontal passage expected. Winds will shift west northwesterly with drier air moving into the area.

The change to drier air will be very temporary as the front returns back north northwesterly over the area. Warmer temperatures along with increasing moisture will prevail late week into the weekend.

As a dynamic area of upper air low pressure moves eastward through the southwestern USA into the southern and central plains, a stronger area of surface low pressure and associated cold front will advance quickly through Texas by Saturday into Sunday with the cold front passing through the local area before sunrise on Sunday. With low level moisture in place along with instability and atmospheric lift accompanying the system, the latest guidance from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center suggests prefrontal thunderstorms over the area with stronger, potentially severe, thunderstorms mainly in areas to our north over north Texas and Oklahoma.

A drier.. more stable and a cooler air mass will move into Texas in the wake of the front for most of the day Sunday through Sunday night into Monday.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 24 April 2017

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 81. Easterly wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 63. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny and warmer. High 88. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny as a weak cold front passes. High 88. Southerly winds 8 to 18 mph becoming west northwesterly.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and a little cooler. Low 59. North northwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light after midnight.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. Wind becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 69. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm with a high of 93. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming cloudy late. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 89. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.. winds becoming more southwesterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 8am with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Clearing.. less humid and a little cooler mid and late morning through the afternoon. High 81. Southwesterly wind early shifting northwesterly 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 01 May 2017 through Sunday / 07 May 2017…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (24 Apr)……………………………………………. 6:54 am
Sunset this evening (24 Apr)……………………………………………… 8:04 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (25 Apr)………………………………………………… 6:53 am
Sunset tomorrow (25 Apr)…………………………………………………. 8:05 pm