Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 18 April 2017
.. Rain Chances Diminish with a More Stable Atmosphere Developing ..
.. A Cold Front Due with Chance of Thunderstorms Late Friday into Saturday ..
.. Cooler Temps for the Weekend ..
On this Tuesday… a low pressure area is over southeastern Colorado with a warm front extending east southeastward into northeastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from the Colorado low into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern and overnight rain showers and thunderstorms to our east, our surface winds across south central Texas are light northerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a rather zonal (or west-to-east) upper level wind flow continues across the USA with a weak low pressure disturbance traveling eastward across Texas. A second disturbance is moving eastward over the Dakotas. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are quite variable in direction at speeds 20 mph or less.
Overnight thunderstorm activity to our east.. associated with a passing upper air disturbance.. will keep a few rain showers and thunderstorms in forecast for today into this evening. Rainfall should remain at 1/4 inch or less based upon the latest WS/Weather Prediction Center guidance.
By tomorrow through Thursday into Friday morning, a more stable atmospheric environment will prevail with increased amounts of sunshine and warmer temperatures.
By late Friday into Saturday, a stronger upper air low pressure disturbance will travel eastward into the southern plains states with an associated surface cold front. Atthis point, it appears that the front will pass through the area in the predawn into morning hours on Saturday with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms likely. While it is too early to call a severe weather risk with this system, I certainly think that here could be some stronger thunderstorms over parts of Texas (particularly in north Texas) as the system passes.
Skies will clear and temperatures will cool a bit in the wake of the front midday Saturday on into Sunday with a drier and more stable air mass in place over the area as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest in the wake of the front.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 18 April 2017
TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 81. Variable winds becoming southeasterly at 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.
TONIGHT…. Isolated evening rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Partly cloudy. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 86. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds and drizzle.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered late afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain early increasing to 40% after midnight; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch. Low 65. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered early and mid morning rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes by mid morning. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch. High 78. Southwesterly wind becoming northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 55. Northwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 76. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 54. Light northeasterly wind.
MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 78. Easterly wind becoming southeasterly by afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 25 April 2017 through Monday / 01 May 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 Apr)……………………………………………. 7:00 am
Sunset this evening (18 Apr)……………………………………………… 8:01 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 Apr)………………………………………………… 6:59 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 Apr)…………………………………………………. 8:01 pm