Updated 915am CT – Friday / 31 March 2017
.. Another Period of Stormy Weather Over the Weekend ..
.. Sunshine Again Early and Mid Parts of Next Week ..
On this Friday… a deepening surface low pressure area is located over the four corners region with a cold front extending southward through western New Mexico into extreme southeastern Arizona and then into Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an eastward moving deep trough of low pressure is over the southwestern USA centered over central Arizona. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are westerly at 50 to 60 mph.
A dry and stable weather pattern continues in place over the area as southerly low level wind flow becomes reestablished with plenty of sunshine over the area.
That next upper level low pressure storm system, the one situated over the Arizona, and the associated cold front will move east southeastward and eastward into Texas and will result in increasing moisture and atmospheric instability and lift by tomorrow with increased clouds and renewed and increasing rain and thunderstorm chances by late in the day tomorrow into tomorrow night and Sunday. I continue to see the chance of periods of heavier rain along with an associated lightning risk and the marginal possibility of severe thunderstorms possibly accompanied by larger hail and damaging straight line thunderstorm winds particularly in the overnight hours Saturday night. Current NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance indicates that we’ll see 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches of rainfall from this system. Guidance suggests that the system will linger across the area on Sunday with a cold front progressing eastward over our area by afternoon and then it will move east of the area, with decreased rain chances, by late Sunday. Skies will clear by Sunday night into Monday with a dry and stable weather pattern prevailing for Monday and Tuesday.
Another upper air low pressure storm system and associated cold front is slated to move across south central Texas and the IH35 corridor next Wednesday. Depending on the moisture return into the area ahead of this system, we could see another chance of rain showers and thunderstorms; however, at this point, I don’t have the confidence to mention anything other than isolated coverage.
A clearing sky along with cooler temperatures will then kick in for Thursday and Friday as that cold front moves into the eastern USA.
Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 31 March 2017
TODAY…. Mostly sunny with near record warmth. High 89. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early then low clouds developing after 12 midnight. Low 64. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing, with an attendant lightning risk, by afternoon. A 30% chance of rain by midday increasing to 50% by late afternoon; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 81. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk. Some thunderstorms may be severe with a hail and straight line thunderstorm wind risk after 9pm. A 50% chance of rain early increasing to 60% by midnight; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 inch. Low 64. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph except strong, variable and gusty in thunderstorms.
SUNDAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk continuing as a cold front passes by mid to late afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe with a hail and straight line thunderstorm wind risk through the midday hours. An 80% chance of rain through 3pm with rain chances decreasing afterwards; rainfall, where it occurs, will average an additional 1/4 to 3/4 inch. High 78. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming southwesterly by early afternoon before shifting north northwest by mid and late afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk continuing through 8pm. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, will average an additional 1/4 inch or less. Decreasing clouds after 8pm and becoming partly cloudy. A little cooler. Low 57. Northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 81. West northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 57. Light wind.
TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny and a little warmer. High 85. South southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT… A few clouds. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY… Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy and turning a little cooler with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk as a cold front passes in the morning to midday hours. A 10% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 75. Southwesterly winds becoming north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Clear and cooler. Low 52. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 76. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 07 April 2017 through Thursday / 13 April 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (31 Mar)……………………………………………. 7:21 am
Sunset this evening (31 Mar)……………………………………………… 7:49 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (01 Apr)………………………………………………… 7:20 am
Sunset tomorrow (01 Apr)…………………………………………………. 7:50 pm