Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 22 March 2017
.. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern Continues …
.. Our Next Cold Front Arrives Friday with Chance of Thunderstorms ..
.. Slightly Cooler and Less Humid Weekend Coming Up ..
.. Another Storm System with a Chance of Thunderstorms Early/Mid Next Week ..
On this Wednesday… a surface cold front stretches westward from central Georgia into central Mississippi and northern Louisiana into a surface low pressure area northwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex. From the surface low, the weak stationary cold front extends westward to near Midland then northwestward through New Mexico and Colorado. A dry line.. separating dry air to the west from more moist humid air to the east.. extends from the stationary front over far west Texas southward through the Texas Big Bend into northern Mexico. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, there has been little change overall since yesterday. A broad stable ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from Texas and northeastern Mexico through the eastern Rockies and western plains states. A trough, or line, of low pressure extends southward in the western Atlantic basin off the east coast of the USA with another one off the west coast of the USA. As a result, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are northwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.
With the upper level high pressure area continuing overhead and acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, a stable dry weather pattern continues across the area. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to be about 10 degrees or more above seasonal averages. Little change in this weather pattern is expected through tomorrow.
By late tomorrow into tomorrow night, a strong upper air Pacific low pressure disturbance will come ashore into the southwestern USA and will travel eastward through the southwestern states. As this occurs, a strong, dynamic surface low pressure area will develop over southern Colorado and then will push eastward, with an attendant surface cold front, Friday into Friday evening. In advance of this system, low level moisture and instability will have had the opportunity to increase. As the atmospheric lift and instability progresses eastward across our area, rain shower and thunderstorm activity, with some strong thunderstorms, by daybreak Friday morning and picking up in coverage Friday into Friday afternoon as the cold front sweeps eastward across our area. We’ll need to monitor for the possibility of severe thunderstorms with a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat but the latest guidance and NWS/Storm Prediction Center outlook suggests that severe weather will remain highest to the northeast of our local area.
Precipitation will taper off quickly and skies will clear in the wake of the cold front Friday night as slightly cooler and drier air moves into the area from the northwest. Saturday looks like a great day with abundant sunshine and temperatures only slightly above seasonal averages.
Another low pressure area will develop quickly to our distant northwest by Saturday night into Sunday with a southerly low level wind returning with an increase in clouds by Sunday.
Our next low pressure storm system appears by the early to middle part of next week with thunderstorm chances returning as early as late Monday.
Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 22 March 2017
TODAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 86. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early.. some low clouds after midnight. Low 65. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. some low clouds after midnight. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southerly winds 8 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, in the morning with rain chances increasing to likely by afternoon. Some stronger thunderstorms possible with a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat. A 40% chance of rain through 12 noon then increasing to 70% by afternoon; rainfall with average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High around 80. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming westerly then northwesterly by late in the afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered evening thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 8pm. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average an additional 1/4 inch. Clearing and turning a little cooler by mid and late evening. Low 58. Northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 80. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming light east northeasterly by late afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear through midnight with a few low clouds developing after midnight. Low 59. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly after midnight.
SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. A bit warmer and more humid. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 62. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 63. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 29 March 2017 through Tuesday / 04 April 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (22 Mar)……………………………………………. 7:32 am
Sunset this evening (22 Mar)……………………………………………… 7:44 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (23 Mar)………………………………………………… 7:31 am
Sunset tomorrow (23 Mar)…………………………………………………. 7:45 pm