Updated 915am CT – Monday / 13 February 2017

… Cloudy and Wet Overrunning Weather Pattern into Tuesday Night …
… Sunshine with a Slow Warming Trend Mid and Late Week into the Weekend …
… Another Upper Air Disturbance and Associated Cold Front Due Next Sunday …

On this Monday… a stationary front extends from northern Florida westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico and across south Texas onshore north of Corpus Christi westward to north of Laredo then westward into northern Mexico. The surface high pressure.. to the north of the front.. is centered over eastern Missouri with a ridge (or line) of surface high pressure extending back west southwestward into eastern New Mexico. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are northeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad upper level though.. or line of upper level low pressure.. extends southeastward off the coast of Maine with another strong slowly eastward moving upper level low pressure area over northern Mexico just south of the border of Arizona. Our upper level winds, at about 30,000 feet overhead, are southwesterly 40 to 50 mph.

The cold front moved southward across the area in the afternoon hours yesterday and this has allowed a shallow wedge of slightly cooler surface based air to move into the area. According to the latest data, this surface based cooler air is only about 2,000 feet thick. That’s important when we consider that clouds and rain chances will be increasing in association in what we refer to as an “overrunning” pattern with Gulf of Mexico moisture gliding up and over the top of the surface based cooler air that strong upper level low pressure storm system, currently over northern Mexico, approaches Texas from the west. Rain chances will really increase tonight and then continue through the day tomorrow with temperatures a little below average. The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests that the area will see beneficial rainfall upwards of one to two inches of rain in the overrunning pattern.

The upper level low pressure storm system will finally move east of the area by tomorrow night with rain chances ending and clouds decreasing. As a result, I expect lots of sunshine with a warming trend Wednesday into the weekend.

Another fairly strong upper air disturbance and associated Pacific cold front will move over the area during the day Sunday with a renewed chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 13 February 2017

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy and with a few patches of rain. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Highs remaining in the 60s. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 80% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 56. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy and a little cooler with rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 90% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 to 3/4 inch. High 59. East southeasterly wind becoming north northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Rain chances diminishing with clouds decreasing after midnight. A 30% chance of rain early; rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 44. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 63. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 41. Light north northeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 68. Light becoming west southwesterly 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 45. Light southerly wind.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 73. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 53. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 81. South southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 59. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, midday into early afternoon as a cold front passes. Rain ending and less humid in the afternoon. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 75. South southwesterly becoming west northwesterly 8 to 15 mph as the front passes.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 20 February 2017 through Sunday / 26 February 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (13 Feb)……………………………………………. 7:13 am
Sunset this evening (13 Feb)……………………………………………… 6:17 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (14 Feb)………………………………………………… 7:12 am
Sunset tomorrow (14 Feb)…………………………………………………. 6:18 pm