Updated 915am CT – Friday / 10 February 2017

… Moisture and Clouds Return …
… A Warm Up Ahead of a Strong Cold Front and Wet Weather Early Next Week …

On this Friday… surface high pressure is over eastern Tennessee with a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extended from western Nebraska southward into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad upper level though.. or line of upper level low pressure.. extends southward from east of Hudson Bay southeastward through Maine and the western Atlantic Ocean basin. the southeastern USA. A broad upper level ridge.. or a line of upper level high pressure.. extends from Mexico northward through the plains and Rockies. Another trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends north-south in the eastern Pacific Ocean basin off the west coast of the USA. Our upper level winds, at about 30,000 feet overhead, are westerly 20 to 25 mph.

Clouds have increased as low level moisture returns on the heels of the south southeasterly wind flow. This will continue through most of the weekend with a few sprinkles possible beginning tonight as the moisture deepens over the area.

Our next cold front will move across the IH35 corridor late in the afternoon into the evening hours on Sunday. I think we’ll see a few rain showers associated with the atmospheric lift ahead of and just along the front. In the wake of the front Sunday evening, clouds will thicken and persist with rain chances increasing in association in what we refer to as an “overrunning” pattern with Gulf of Mexico moisture gliding up and over the top of the surface based cooler air as a strong upper level low pressure storm system approaches Texas from the west. Rain chances will linger through Monday and Tuesday with temperatures well below average. The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests that the area will see upwards of one to two inches of rain in the overrunning pattern.

The upper level low pressure storm system will finally move east of the area by Tuesday night into Wednesday with rain chances diminishing, sunshine slowly returning and temperatures warming once again.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 10 February 2017

TODAY…. Becoming partly cloudy and warmer. High 72. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. A few sprinkles. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 60. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm. A few sprinkles. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. High 81. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. A few sprinkles. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 75. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting more southwesterly in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and turning cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes in the evening hours. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 51. Southwesterly wind shifting north northwesterly 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

MONDAY…. Cloudy and much cooler with scattered patches of rain and rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Highs remaining in the 50s. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 45. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High in the 50s. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 45. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more easterly after midnight.

WEDNESDAY…. A few periods of rain before sunrise. A 20% chance of rain before 8am; rainfall, where it occurs, will average a few hundredths of an inch. Decreasing clouds becoming partly to mostly cloudy. High 63. Light easterly wind early becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 44. Light southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 69. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 17 February 2017 through Thursday / 23 February 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (10 Feb)……………………………………………. 7:15 am
Sunset this evening (10 Feb)……………………………………………… 6:16 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (11 Feb)………………………………………………… 7:14 am
Sunset tomorrow (11 Feb)…………………………………………………. 6:16 pm