Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 08 February 2017

… South Southwesterly Wind with Record Warmth …
… Our Next Cold Front Passes This Evening.. Cooler Air Follows …
… A Warm Up Ahead of a Strong Cold Front and Wet Weather Early Next Week …

On this Wednesday… a southward moving cold front is located from middle Tennessee into central Arkansas and westward into a surface low pressure area over the Red River country of southern Oklahoma and north Texas then northwestward through the Texas Panhandle into a surface low pressure area over eastern Colorado. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are westerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad upper level though.. or line of upper level low pressure.. is slowly deepening from Hudson Bay southward through the eastern two thirds of the country. Our upper level winds, at about 30,000 feet overhead, are west northwesterly at about 50 mph.

After record breaking highs yesterday, a continued westerly surface wind today with dry air continuing to move in from the west. This will, once again, allow for a rapid warmup with near record highs expected.

By this evening, a rather weak cold front is expected to pass southward across the IH35 corridor. Due to the drier and more stable component of the air ahead of the front, I do not expect any precipitation and little in the way of clouds as the front moves through the area.

Temperatures will cool a bit for tonight and tomorrow (still above seasonal averages, though) with surface winds turning more southerly once again Friday as a warming trend begins.

Clouds will increase a bit as low level moisture returns on the heels of the south southeasterly wind flow Friday night through Saturday and early Sunday.

The next cold front, this one much stronger, will move across the IH35 corridor late in the afternoon into the evening hours on Sunday. I think we’ll see a few rain showers associated with the atmospheric lift ahead of and just along the front. In the wake of the front Sunday evening, clouds will thicken and persist with rain chances increasing in association in what we refer to as an “overrunning” pattern moisture gliding up and over the top of the surface based cooler air as a strong upper level low pressure storm system approaches Texas from the west. Rain chances will linger through Monday and Tuesday with temperatures well below average. The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests that the area will see upwards of one to two inches of rain in the overrunning pattern.

The upper level low pressure storm system will finally move east of the area by Tuesday night into Wednesday with rain chances diminishing, sunshine slowly returning and temperatures warming once again.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 08 February 2017

TODAY…. A few low clouds in the morning becoming mostly sunny with record warmth in the afternoon. A weak cold front will move into the area by late afternoon. High around 87. West southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwesterly 5 to 12 mph by late afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Clear and cooler. Low 47. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 67. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeasterly in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 50. Light easterly wind.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny and warmer. High 75. Light wind in the morning becoming southerly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 60. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High 83. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 77. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting more southwesterly in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and turning cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes in the evening hours. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 51. Southwesterly wind shifting north northwesterly 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

MONDAY…. Cloudy and much cooler with scattered patches of rain and rain showers. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Highs remaining in the 50s. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 45. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High in the 50s. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 15 February 2017 through Tuesday / 21 February 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (08 Feb)……………………………………………. 7:17 am
Sunset this evening (08 Feb)……………………………………………… 6:14 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (09 Feb)………………………………………………… 7:16 am
Sunset tomorrow (09 Feb)…………………………………………………. 6:15 pm