Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 19 January 2017

… A Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern with Sunshine Returning …
… Strong Storm System and High Wind Threat Late Saturday into Sunday …

On this Thursday… a stationary front extends west and southwestward from northern Mississippi through a surface low over western Louisiana then southward into the western Gulf of Mexico off the Texas coast.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a northeastward moving upper level low pressure disturbance is over western and central Kansas. Our upper level winds, at about 18,500 feet overhead, are southwesterly at 60 to 70 mph.

The upper level disturbance, to our distant north, continues to move northeastward and will have its influence on the local area diminish today.

By midday today, we’ll see skies clear with warmer temperatures expected into the weekend with only minimal precipitation chances as another strong low pressure storm system and cold front approaches the area late Saturday into Saturday night.

The dynamic low pressure storm system and surface cold front will arrive across the IH35 corridor by late Saturday night into early Sunday but I expect little in the way of clouds and precipitation with the passage of the system. One continuing item of concern is the very strong pressure gradient that, according to atmospheric model guidance, will accompany the system. Current thought is that, in the wake of the cold front early Sunday, our northwesterly winds may gust up to 35 to 45 mph with even some higher gusts to above 50 mph. It is something we will need to watch closely in the coming days from not only the high wind threat (non-thunderstorm, this will be under a clear sky) but also, as a result of drying dormant vegetation, a wildfire threat as well.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 19 January 2017

TODAY…. Morning low clouds and fog.. otherwise partly cloudy by midday then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Much warmer. High 75. Southerly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with some patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 51. Light southerly wind.

FRIDAY…. Some patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High 79. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55. Light southerly wind.

SATURDAY…. Some patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and continued unseasonably warm. High 76. South southwesterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy as a cold front passes by midnight. Widely scattered rain showers late; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 51. Southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High winds and cooler. High 66. Northerly wind 30 to 40 mph with some gusts to above 50 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 40. Northerly wind decreasing to 8 to 15 mph late.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 68. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 42. Light northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 70. Light easterly wind early becoming southeasterly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 47. Light south southeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 26 January 2017 through Wednesday / 01 February 2017…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19Jan)…………………………………………….. 7:27 am
Sunset this evening (19 Jan)……………………………………………… 5:57 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 Jan)………………………………………………… 7:27 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 Jan)…………………………………………………. 5:57 pm