Updated 915am CT – Monday / 16 January 2017

… Unsettled Weather Continues …
… Several Upper Level Systems and Cold Fronts Over Next Seven Days …
… Rain Chances Come and Go over the Next Seven Days …

On this Monday… a surface low pressure area is over north central Oklahoma with a weakening cold front extending southward into Texas along the IH35 corridor to south of Eagle Pass. A warm front extends east southeastward from the surface low through southern Arkansas into northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. As a result of the surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong upper level low pressure disturbance is moving northeastward over eastern Kansas. However, a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure area remains from the Rockies southwestward across Baja California and southern California with another vigorous upper level low pressure disturbance embedded within the trough over southern California east of San Diego. Our upper level winds, at about 18,500 feet overhead, are southwesterly at about 50 mph.

In the wake of the overnight rain showers and stronger thunderstorms, producing rainfall amounts of 1 inch or less, that preceded an upper air low pressure disturbance and a weak Pacific cold front, we’re seeing lingering clouds and cooler temperatures across the area on this Monday morning. The weakening cold front overhead is already sensing the presence of the next upper level low pressure disturbance over the southwestern USA and northwestern Mexico and is retreating westward across the area. Clouds, which had broken over the northwestern parts of the area earlier this morning about sunrise, have increased and pushed back northwestward across the IH35 corridor. This will continue through the balance of the day as warmer temperatures advect back across the area.

By later today into tonight and continuing through tomorrow night and Wednesday, the next upper air low pressure disturbance will begin to slowly move northeastward from northwestern Mexico into New Mexico and far west Texas. As that occurs, it will support the renewed movement southward of a cold front by late tonight with clouds and precipitation likely to overrun the surface based cooler air from the predawn hours through most of the day tomorrow through Wednesday. Additional rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 3/4 inch are possible for the period with below average temperatures expected.

We’ll see skies partially clear with warmer temperatures expected Thursday through Friday and the first part of the upcoming weekend. A stronger cold front will arrive across the IH35 corridor by late Saturday night into early Sunday but I expect little in the way of clouds and precipitation with the passage of the system. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Sunday.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

—

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 16 January 2017

TODAY…. Cloudy with a few rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall amounts will average less than 1/10th inch. High 72. Light and variable wind.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy and a bit cooler with a chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk.. mainly after midnight. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall amounts will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 53. Light winds becoming northerly 4 to 8 mph as a weak cold front passes.

TUESDAY…. A cloudy sky and cooler with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 58. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 48. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. A cloudy sky with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 61. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Some patchy fog after midnight. Low 53. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm overnight.

THURSDAY…. Isolated rain showers before 8am.. otherwise becoming partly cloudy and warmer. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/10th inch. High 72. Calm wind early becoming southerly 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with some patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 52. Light southerly wind.

FRIDAY…. Some patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High 75. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 54. Light southerly wind.

SATURDAY…. Some patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly cloudy and continued unseasonably warm. High 76. South southwesterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy as a cold front passes by midnight. Low 51. Southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny and a little cooler. High 66. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 23 January 2017 through Sunday / 29 January 2017…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16Jan)…………………………………………….. 7:28 am
Sunset this evening (16 Jan)……………………………………………… 5:54 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 Jan)………………………………………………… 7:28 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 Jan)…………………………………………………. 5:55 pm