…. One More Time ….
…. SPC Mesoscale Discussion Issued – 60% Watch ….

The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has posted a Mesoscale Discussion..
it appears that areas from the Austin/Bryan-College Station areas northward
may have a strong thunderstorm risk through the evening as the upper level low
pressure storm moves west-to-east to the north of our associated with peak
daytime heating…

Let’s remain weather aware into the evening.. keep an eye on the sky…

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL TX

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272029Z – 272200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT

SUMMARY…AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL…WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS CELLS INITIATE AND INTENSIFY. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION…THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM JUST
EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TX EXTENDING SWD TO JUST EAST OF BROWNWOOD. A
MOIST AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR VICTORIA NWD ALONG A CORRIDOR JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE IN THE
1000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION…A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET
IS LOCATED IN CNTRL TX WHICH IS CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. AS CELLS CONTINUE TO
INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT…THE INSTABILITY…DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT…LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
GRADUALLY EXPAND SWD INTO THE AUSTIN AND COLLEGE STATION AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 04/27/2015

ATTN…WFO…HGX…FWD…EWX…