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April 27, 2015

TK’s Special Briefing…. (340pm CT-Mon/27Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 27, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
340pm CT – Monday / 27 April 2015

…. One More Time ….
…. SPC Mesoscale Discussion Issued – 60% Watch ….

The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has posted a Mesoscale Discussion..
it appears that areas from the Austin/Bryan-College Station areas northward
may have a strong thunderstorm risk through the evening as the upper level low
pressure storm moves west-to-east to the north of our associated with peak
daytime heating…

Let’s remain weather aware into the evening.. keep an eye on the sky…

Link:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0483.html

MD 483 graphic
Text:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL TX

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272029Z – 272200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT

SUMMARY…AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL…WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS CELLS INITIATE AND INTENSIFY. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION…THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM JUST
EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TX EXTENDING SWD TO JUST EAST OF BROWNWOOD. A
MOIST AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR VICTORIA NWD ALONG A CORRIDOR JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE IN THE
1000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION…A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET
IS LOCATED IN CNTRL TX WHICH IS CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. AS CELLS CONTINUE TO
INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT…THE INSTABILITY…DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT…LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
GRADUALLY EXPAND SWD INTO THE AUSTIN AND COLLEGE STATION AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 04/27/2015

ATTN…WFO…HGX…FWD…EWX…

I’m monitoring… tk

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Apr 27, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 27 April 2015

TODAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. High 86. West northwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes. A 20% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 58. Northerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy.. breezy and much cooler. High 72. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 50. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 76. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more easterly by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 54. Light and variable wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 77. Light west southwesterly wind becoming northeasterly 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 56. Light northeasterly wind.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 81. Light wind becoming southerly 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 60. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 82. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 04 May 2015 through Sunday / 10 May 2015…
Temperature… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (27 April)…………………………………………. 6:51 am
Sunset this evening (27 April)…………………………………………… 8:06 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (28 April)………………………………………………. 6:50 am
Sunset Tuesday (28 April)……………………………………………….. 8:07 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Apr 27, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 27 April 2015

.. Upper Level Low Pressure Disturbance Moves Off to the Northeast ..
.. A Cold Front Due Tonight with Much Cooler Temps into Mid Week ..
.. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern for Much of Seven Day Forecast Period ..

On this Monday…. a surface low pressure area is over north central Texas with a weak cold front into the Texas coastal plains southward to the lower Rio Grande Valley. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an northeastward moving upper level low pressure disturbance is over west Texas. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 30 to 40 mph.

After one wave of overnight rain showers and thunderstorms, which produced less than an inch of rain in the Austin area proper, we’re going to see a break in the weather into the afternoon with sunshine and warming temperatures as a result of am increasing dry surface wind flow. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible today into tonight before a cold front sweeps through the area bringing much cooler temperatures later tonight and Tuesday through Wednesday.

A drier and more stable air mass returns tomorrow into mid and late week and even the weekend. The cooler than average temperatures will turn warmer by late week through our upcoming weekend as a southerly surface wind flow becomes reestablished.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (945am CT-Mon/27Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 27, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Special Briefing…. (820am CT-Mon/27Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 27, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #5
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
825am CT – Monday / 27 April 2015

…. Upper Air Low Pressure Storm System Moves Eastward ….
…. Lingering Rain Showers / Thunderstorms Possible Today into Tonight ….
…. Threat of Severe Thunderstorms Decreases ….

Although some folks are reporting power outages in the Austin metro area
and surrounding areas this morning (7,600 outages at peak; 700 outages
now), severe reports from the IH35 corridor counties were limited in the
overnight hours. Austin City (Camp Mabry) reported a peak wind of 37 mph
at 1:51am.. while Austin Bergstrom International Airport reported a peak wind
of 39 mph at 1:52am. One report.. via the NWS Austin-San Antonio.. mentioned
4″ tree limbs downed, in the metro Austin area, by strong winds but the NWS
did not provide us a specific location.

Rainfall was generally 1 inch or less throughout the IH35 corridor with the
heaviest LCRA Hydromet report being 1.02″ at Barton Creek near SH71
near Oak Hill.

A few lingering rain showers and thunderstorms may persist today into tonight
as a cold front moves through the area later today into tonight. Any thunderstorms
that do develop should be sub-severe.. but I’ll continue to monitor. Ahead of the
front, with a west wind, we’ll see another seasonably warm day today. This will
be followed by much cooler temperatures tonight into Tuesday and Wednesday.

This is my last statement on this weather event.
tk